Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17

[Gavin Hannah]

5 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Simple logic, that November update, how can virtually the whole of Eurasia be above average except Mongolia?

Only a computer  can produce that outcome when simple human logic knows that is just not feasible. 

Plus given the extent of the snow cover in Russia / East Europe.. I want to know what data they are feeding their computer model. 

 

".. Hmm looks like it's going to be much warmer than average over all of Eurasia.. except Mongolia..."

".. but all that snow..?"

".. Meh, computer says no!..W

[Summer Sun]

6 years ago and what's more the upward trend into December didn't happen!

 

[summer blizzard]

On 11/15/2016 at 15:48, jethro said:

I've heard of those mythical SW battleground dumpings, but never in the 20 odd years down here have I experienced one. Here's hoping the myth becomes a reality this winter and us SW folk wake up to scenes like this. Fingers and toes crossed.

I believe Jan 10 produced a significant event for the SW. I recall the radar showing pink/white (BBC old one) and remember Steve posting Met Office warnings for a foot of snow. 

[Mapantz]

1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

I believe Jan 10 produced a significant event for the SW. I recall the radar showing pink/white (BBC old one) and remember Steve posting Met Office warnings for a foot of snow. 

If that is what I am thinking, then that was probably the biggest fail I have ever seen. A red warning for snow was issued for Dorset, and barely an inch fell - they got it disastrously wrong.

[jethro]

1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

I believe Jan 10 produced a significant event for the SW. I recall the radar showing pink/white (BBC old one) and remember Steve posting Met Office warnings for a foot of snow. 

I don't remember any warnings but I'd certainly remember if we had a load of snow - we didn't around here. 2010 was nothing to shout about around these parts, certainly cold but not that snowy.

[Weather-history]

4 hours ago, Mapantz said:

If that is what I am thinking, then that was probably the biggest fail I have ever seen. A red warning for snow was issued for Dorset, and barely an inch fell - they got it disastrously wrong.

If you look at a BBC forecast from that evening, the graphics suggested a lot of Dorset was going to miss out at least the really heavy stuff

 

[summer blizzard]

2 hours ago, Weather-history said:

If you look at a BBC forecast from that evening, the graphics suggested a lot of Dorset was going to miss out at least the really heavy stuff

 

It was not around that time (the 6th Jan was the best event i have ever experienced here). It was the week we had a trough to the south west (your chart started with a northerly). 

Perhaps i'm thinking of Feb.

[jethro]

54 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

It was not around that time (the 6th Jan was the best event i have ever experienced here). It was the week we had a trough to the south west (your chart started with a northerly). 

Perhaps i'm thinking of Feb.

Going by that graphic it wasn't forecast to really hit here. If you look at the square next to Cardiff, draw a line from the bottom right hand corner of the square, about 5mm long, heading in land, that's the Mendip hills. The best event I've had living here was first week of Feb 2009, yes we were forecast snow, but we weren't forecast the foot that we had; I think the front stalled and just kept dumping snow for over 12 hours, it was wonderful. More of the same please.

[markyo]

Been a good few years since i've not been in shorts at the weekend in November,love the freshness and clean feeling this type of weather brings. Not to every bodies like i know,fuel bills will be a issue as this is only the start of the season,just hope everybody can take just a bit of pleasure from the blue winter gin clear skies when they come,so much better than the heavy clag that blighted the uk in the last few months. Fingers crossed a bit for all coming up and a fuel bill freeze by the big companies wouldn't go amiss!!

[damianslaw]

Reading inbetween the lines of the current and many recent Met office long range forecasts - likely to be a colder than average start to December at least, and the complete opposite to last year. 

By next weekend we should start to be able to firm up a little more on likely developments through the first half of December at least and possible trends for later in December, but Jan and Feb remain a long way away, and whilst we should take note of the long range seasonal forecasts as they all emerge at the end of November, its best to keep a very open mind. 

My hunch is December at least will produce colder than average conditions and not just one-two day wonder, but probably quite long lasting at times, whether in stages or consistently, I can't comment on right now, but by next weekend should be able to speculate somewhat.

The current northern hemispheric set up is much more akin to this date in 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2012, than 2011, 2013-2015.. a fractured polar vortex showing no signs of gathering itself together anytime soon, and a base state conducive to 'northern blocking' with a diffuse southerly tracking jet in an amplified state. All key ingredients for enhancing the likelihood of colder than average conditions as we enter the winter period.

[Hocus Pocus]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Reading inbetween the lines of the current and many recent Met office long range forecasts - likely to be a colder than average start to December at least, and the complete opposite to last year. 

By next weekend we should start to be able to firm up a little more on likely developments through the first half of December at least and possible trends for later in December, but Jan and Feb remain a long way away, and whilst we should take note of the long range seasonal forecasts as they all emerge at the end of November, its best to keep a very open mind. 

My hunch is December at least will produce colder than average conditions and not just one-two day wonder, but probably quite long lasting at times, whether in stages or consistently, I can't comment on right now, but by next weekend should be able to speculate somewhat.

The current northern hemispheric set up is much more akin to this date in 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2012, than 2011, 2013-2015.. a fractured polar vortex showing no signs of gathering itself together anytime soon, and a base state conducive to 'northern blocking' with a diffuse southerly tracking jet in an amplified state. All key ingredients for enhancing the likelihood of colder than average conditions as we enter the winter period.

As it stands the MetO are not looking at anything particularly severe in terms of cold so whilst compared to recent years it will be most welcoming  I think expectations of bitter cold and deep snow should be best kept to the realms of fantasy for now, that's not to say we should stop dreaming of course.

[Smiler1709]

I have a feeling we're gonna  be left in no mans land for the majority of winter, nothing majorly cold, quiet Atlantic and awsome charts in FI that tease us all winter but never materialise. People expectations this season seem high especially given the back ground signals but stay grounded because I think there will be disappointment come spring especially down near my neck of the woods. 

[stewfox]

My favourite, can I have a repeat please. I think it went a bit further north then forecast but areas 100 miles north of me got very little. Never seen so much snow in a day and i can go back to mid 70s

 

Led to this

 

Edited November 19, 2016 by stewfox

[Weather Enthusiast91]

I would like to see a decent amount of snow for a change, and not just a dusting. Even when we do get just a dusting, the rain never fails to turn up to wash it all away.

[Hotspur62]

10 hours ago, stewfox said:

My favourite, can I have a repeat please. I think it went a bit further north then forecast but areas 100 miles north of me got very little. Never seen so much snow in a day and i can go back to mid 70s

 

Led to this

 

I remember that day so well.Although we didnt get as much as the Forecast predicted i remember we had a 2 hour snow period that gave us 10cms of fresh snow on top of the existing 30cms that we already had from earlier snowfalls in late november/early December. Would love a repeat of that again although pretty unlikely me thinks

[MP-R]

I hope for a repeat of last night and what's to come tomorrow with -10 uppers in place. 

[lassie23]

From watching the weather models  over this past week, I think the UK is in store for a blocked, cold, snowy, mild, stormy, Atlantic dominated, settled sunny,  winter

[stainesbloke]

6 hours ago, lassie23 said:

From watching the weather models  over this past week, I think the UK is in store for a blocked, cold, snowy, mild, stormy, Atlantic dominated, settled sunny,  winter

Usual story. Same old melodrama as every year; clearly no one learns that any charts past 5 days ahead are really just conjecture. 

[ArHu3]

10 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Usual story. Same old melodrama as every year; clearly no one learns that any charts past 5 days ahead are really just conjecture. 

up until 120h everything is pretty etched in stone, 144-196 can give a hint of a trend to come, everything after that time you 100% are not going to get

[I remember Atlantic 252]

7 hours ago, lassie23 said:

From watching the weather models  over this past week, I think the UK is in store for a blocked, cold, snowy, mild, stormy, Atlantic dominated, settled sunny,  winter

Ay, agree there! already signs on GFS that Dec will be dominated by westerlies, ECM going same route, 264 would be westerly

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Current UK satellite pics. Nice snow in Scotland

[Summer Sun]

WSI now going for a colder than originally expected winter

Quote

 

European Winter Now Looks Colder than Originally Expected

For the aggregate December–February period, The Weather Company, an IBM Business, is forecasting below-normal temperatures across all of Scandinavia and the northern half of Europe, with above-normal conditions confined to more southern latitudes.

“The colder pattern that started in October has persisted into November, this is a fairly clear sign that our original ideas for this winter were a bit off base,” said Dr. Todd Crawford, Chief Meteorologist, The Weather Company. “It is clear that the polar vortex is weaker than we originally expected and that more blocking is likely going forward, especially in the Eurasian sector. Given this, along with the continued colder-looking model guidance for December, we have made significant colder changes to our forecast. Because of the weak stratospheric polar vortex, there is also an increasingly good change of a sudden stratospheric warming sometime within the next 4–6 weeks that would ramp up the cold risks later in the winter.”

For the December 2016 to February 2017 time period, The Weather Company is forecasting the following conditions:

December Forecast by Region

Nordic Region – Colder than normal

U.K. – Slightly warmer than normal

Northern Mainland – Colder than normal east, warmer than normal west

Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal

January Forecast by Region

Nordic Region – Slightly warmer than normal

U.K. – Slightly colder than normal

Northern Mainland – Colder than normal

Southern Mainland – Colder than normal

February Forecast by Region

Nordic Region – Colder than normal

U.K. – Colder than normal

Northern Mainland – Colder than normal

Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal

 

 

https://business.weather.com/news/european-seasonal-forecast-unusual-early-season-cold-a-sign-of-further-wintry-conditions

[Seasonality]

3 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Ay, agree there! already signs on GFS that Dec will be dominated by westerlies, ECM going same route, 264 would be westerly

You're being ironic there I take it?

[Seasonality]

22 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

WSI now going for a colder than originally expected winter

https://business.weather.com/news/european-seasonal-forecast-unusual-early-season-cold-a-sign-of-further-wintry-conditions

The plot thickens! That forecast shows the UK getting steadily colder throughout the season, I wonder what their thinking is.

[Nouska]

31 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

WSI now going for a colder than originally expected winter

https://business.weather.com/news/european-seasonal-forecast-unusual-early-season-cold-a-sign-of-further-wintry-conditions

Maybe they are responding to some of the global modelling which wants to repeat the November pattern in February. I wonder what brings this pattern back - are they seeing a stratosphere happening to initiate this? I know the JMA have good strat coverage but not sure about BCC or NCAR products. WSI are impressed by CESM performance in summer and autumn so maybe weighting on that.