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Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17


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No lowland snow from now until ?.... end of march?

4.5 months / 18 weeks.

even in the worst 90s Winters theres always 1 / 2 events-- plus the overall state of the zonal wind means that at this stage the probability of what your saying is about 30/1. 

Everyone bar a few would hope your guess is wrong as 'most' would enjoy as many snow events as poss.

 

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4 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

yes, only Nov though, still autumn, but tend to agree with your posts, welcome to 2000+ westerlies modeled all the way

then the straw clutching of the christmas pudding, 384 GFS chart may lead to a SSW, 240 ECM chart shows 6° max, and a NW'ly

The SSW is starting to show @196h, that is within the reliable range for stratosphere forecasting

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20 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

No lowland snow from now until ?.... end of march?

4.5 months / 18 weeks.

even in the worst 90s Winters theres always 1 / 2 events-- plus the overall state of the zonal wind means that at this stage the probability of what your saying is about 30/1. 

Everyone bar a few would hope your guess is wrong as 'most' would enjoy as many snow events as poss.

 

Never been a winter here without snow. Even last winter had snow and that was pretty horrendous. We had snow on 29 April this year as a matter of fact. 

Crazy to think that there's only been about 6 months between first and last snowfall this year.. what is this, Scandinavia? 

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On 9 November 2016 at 17:21, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I suspect this will be the only snow of the season for lowland Britain, though - models are now pushing anything other than zonality into the depths of F.I.

The worst winter I have experienced was 2013-14 and even  then I still saw snow at 20m or so above sea level.

There hasn't been a single winter that I didn't see snow and that is just the winter months. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

The worst winter I have experienced was 2013-14 and even  then I still saw snow at 20m or so above sea level.

There hasn't been a single winter that I didn't see snow and that is just the winter months. 

 

11 Feb? only date I saw lying snow, around 2cms, very heavy though but quick thaw

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5 minutes ago, Nick L said:

13-14 was the only winter I have never seen lying snow, and I didn't see any falling snow either. An utterly dreadful excuse of a "winter".

Lucky you 13-16 here where I live in Holland :(

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On 9 November 2016 at 17:21, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I suspect this will be the only snow of the season for lowland Britain, though - models are now pushing anything other than zonality into the depths of F.I.

Depends on your definition of lowland? My home town is 100 Mtrs asl  (though in a hilly area) and the lowest number of snow lying days in the last 40 years is 12.  Incidentally that was in a Winter that was not particularly mild but was dry; 2005/6 and most of the 12 snow days came in March that year.

I suspect that there will be snow in most lowland areas at some point this Winter.

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11 minutes ago, Norrance said:

Depends on your definition of lowland? My home town is 100 Mtrs asl  (though in a hilly area) and the lowest number of snow lying days in the last 40 years is 12.  Incidentally that was in a Winter that was not particularly mild but was dry; 2005/6 and most of the 12 snow days came in March that year.

I suspect that there will be snow in most lowland areas at some point this Winter.

Apologies for my vague terminology.  By "Lowland", I was thinking of areas south of the Pennines at an altitude of 100 metres or less.

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Well it's getting interesting. The PV refuses and refuses to form properly. In a normal year, under the current circumstances, it would start to become coherent. I just feel, more and more, that it isn't going to happen. 

As the result of a disorganised PV is arctic cold being slung around like a boomerang, I'm thinking we have as good a chance as ever of something spectacular in the next two months. 

If I had to bet on it, I'd say we will get at least two frozen weeks in the next eight. That's my guess right now. Get that sledge ready!

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2013/14 and 2015/16 were both dreadful winters in fact terrible, from what I've seen with looking at the models and the background signals we ARE NOT expected to see a repeat of those. I've been following the CFS daily since early October and haven't hardly seen one 0z run show anything like a repeat of those so a bonus there but it still doesn't rule out an unsettled winter but cooler/colder in nature. Personally believe we'll see a good deal of MLB and a reasonable amount of benign weather.

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40 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Well it's getting interesting. The PV refuses and refuses to form properly. In a normal year, under the current circumstances, it would start to become coherent. I just feel, more and more, that it isn't going to happen. 

I was just wondering that myself the other day, what if the vortex never gets organised? This is prime time for it to do so after all, can it get itself going later in the winter when it would normally be expected to be weakening? Interesting times.

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3 hours ago, Ravelin said:

I was just wondering that myself the other day, what if the vortex never gets organised? This is prime time for it to do so after all, can it get itself going later in the winter when it would normally be expected to be weakening? Interesting times.

IIRC, Ian Fergusson and Tamara have suggested that the vortex may become stronger during February thanks to the weak La Nina state, not that I understand the mechanism involved.

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Snow before xmas nationwide? For the first time for several years there looks to be a "could be" creeping in to the overall view,next few weeks could be exceptionally interesting,long over due this level of consistency at the start of the season,MAY be one to remember.

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3 hours ago, markyo said:

Snow before xmas nationwide? For the first time for several years there looks to be a "could be" creeping in to the overall view,next few weeks could be exceptionally interesting,long over due this level of consistency at the start of the season,MAY be one to remember.

Yes agree with you, some very different atmospheric conditions this year which is interesting in itself. Of course, no guarantee of freezing cold and snow but perhaps more likely at least. Personally I hope it stays away over Christmas though, way too much drama involved in this country!

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There is no doubt that weather changes pattern over time and at some point it will change again.The 70s,80s and 90s were littered with drought years notably 75,76,84,89,95 and 1996.Since then we have had almost nothing in the way of Drought.Back in the 90s the talk was of getting use to it and 'Meditteranean climate 'in the south.That may be a little where temperatures are concerned but not rainfall.I personally feel with some of the rainfall we have had in recent years this is about to change and with a relative dry autumn we may get a dry winter and set up a perfect 'Drought ' for 2017.Wether we get a severe spell this winter is a different matter but it certainly has a different feel about this autumn and we are well overdue a cold January and February.

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11 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

Yes agree with you, some very different atmospheric conditions this year which is interesting in itself. Of course, no guarantee of freezing cold and snow but perhaps more likely at least. Personally I hope it stays away over Christmas though, way too much drama involved in this country!

Yep,just a cold spell at Christmas would be good,odd flurry but nothing to cause disruption,saying that in this country a flurry can do that! Looking like it could be a far far cry from last DEC 25th thankfully.

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Here is the last ECMWF Seasonal Model Forecast Interpretation from Gavin P possibly no more in the near feture

Coldest part of winter for the North, West and Central Europe early to mid winter

Then flipping around to southern and eastern Europe for the second half of winter becoming colder

North and west Europe becoming a bit milder for the 2nd half of winter

 

 

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Steve there Seems to be a potent storm tracking south on Sunday which is the dominant subject on the model thread - I recall similar lows taking a southerly track during our colder winters and causing problems as they stalled? And hung about for a bit.  They should suck a load of cold air with them too. Any thoughts? 

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