Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17

[Summer Sun]

Met office blog: What does this winter have in store?

Quote

So, what are the latest indications for the coming winter? Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the Met Office Hadley Centre, explains: “The risk of a cold start to winter has increased to 30% this year. Statistically, however, it is still more likely that the UK will experience a normal start to winter, but there is an increased risk of cold snaps between now and Christmas.”

Adam added: “Several factors, including tropical rainfall, are known to drive UK and European winter conditions: following a strong El Niño last year, the tropics are now influenced by a weak La Niña and unusual rainfall conditions in the Indian Ocean.”

1

 

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2016/11/03/what-does-this-winter-have-in-store/

[Hotspur62]

Finding the model watching fascinating already as we head towards winter.This week alone has seen an attempted Easterly by ECM and a progressive Atlantic movement by GFS and a sort of halfway house reached in the end.Tbh it is too early for a snow event for snow to stick around,espicially in the South so i am looking at the bigger picture and what IF has hinted at for later in November.I remember 2010 very well and not saying it is going to happen again but from around 25th/26th November it started getting colder and colder and then the snow started to fall on 29th and Bingo we had snow pretty much for 3 days reaching a depth of 18" by 1st december-Truly amazing.My gut feeling is we will have a front loaded winter this season like 2010/11( i remember after  29th Dec 2010 the snow finally melted and we never had another flake that winter in Kent!!) .Whatever happens it must be an improvement on the last 3 winters which have been absolute stinkers in terms of cold and snow!! 

[damianslaw]

3 minutes ago, Hotspur61 said:

Finding the model watching fascinating already as we head towards winter.This week alone has seen an attempted Easterly by ECM and a progressive Atlantic movement by GFS and a sort of halfway house reached in the end.Tbh it is too early for a snow event for snow to stick around,espicially in the South so i am looking at the bigger picture and what IF has hinted at for later in November.I remember 2010 very well and not saying it is going to happen again but from around 25th/26th November it started getting colder and colder and then the snow started to fall on 29th and Bingo we had snow pretty much for 3 days reaching a depth of 18" by 1st december-Truly amazing.My gut feeling is we will have a front loaded winter this season like 2010/11( i remember after  29th Dec 2010 the snow finally melted and we never had another flake that winter in Kent!!) .Whatever happens it must be an improvement on the last 3 winters which have been absolute stinkers in terms of cold and snow!! 

Always noteworthy when we see trough disruption occuring at this time of year, as we have now, as it suggests the typical default early winter northern hemispheric pattern, may not gain a strong foothold. Similiar Novembers that had such disruption include 2001, 2005, 2008 and 2012. All following winters were quite chilly with plenty of cold anticyclonic conditions in December especially with at least one spell of snowy weather at some stage, 2005 admittedly shortlived and 2001 rather marginal.

Novembers 2009 and 2010 saw a strong block holding its position over scandanavia weakening the PV considerably.

I'm quietly optimistic that early winter at least may deliver a decent spell of wintry weather at some stage.. there is a 2008 feel about things at the moment which produced a cold end to November with lots of fog and frost, then a cold snowy start to Dec at least around here, followed by a very mild spell run up to christmas, then cold again for new year. Also feels similiar to 2012 which again brought a cold frosty end to Nov, a cold first part to Dec. 

I'll be giving my thoughts on the winter as a whole at the end of this month, if we see further trough disruption second half of November which seems very plausible then the optimism will increase markedly.

[iapennell]

I see that the Quasi Biennial Oscillation in the Equatorial Stratosphere (30 mb height) has Westerlies which further increased in strength last month (to average at 12.86 metres per second- almost 29 miles per hour from the west- as averaged through October! With sea-surface temperatures north-west of Britain still warmer than usual this does not bode well for serious cold and snow later in the winter, though that's not to say there won't be some cold snaps! The rapid increase in snow-cover across Eurasia, the record-low extent of Arctic ice-cover- the ice-margin is still right up at 80N in the European Arctic (so a real chance of depressions missing the UK entirely and heading deep into the Arctic) and of course the fact we have a weak Lá Nina means that we are unlikely to have anything like a repeat of last winter nor winter 2013/14 (that winter delivered for the North Pennines not one really hard frost, the coldest it got was -4C in late November). The declining phase of the Sunspot Cycle also increases the scope for some colder weather but we do not have a totally quiet Sun as yet.

Btw we had our first snowfall of the season today at just over 400 metres' elevation in the North Pennines. Almost all thawed away now, but we did have an inch of snow-lying (and clearly more on the higher fells).

[Matthew.]

17 minutes ago, iapennell said:

I see that the Quasi Biennial Oscillation in the Equatorial Stratosphere (30 mb height) has Westerlies which further increased in strength last month (to average at 12.86 metres per second- almost 29 miles per hour from the west- as averaged through October! With sea-surface temperatures north-west of Britain still warmer than usual this does not bode well for serious cold and snow later in the winter, though that's not to say there won't be some cold snaps! The rapid increase in snow-cover across Eurasia, the record-low extent of Arctic ice-cover- the ice-margin is still right up at 80N in the European Arctic (so a real chance of depressions missing the UK entirely and heading deep into the Arctic) and of course the fact we have a weak Lá Nina means that we are unlikely to have anything like a repeat of last winter nor winter 2013/14 (that winter delivered for the North Pennines not one really hard frost, the coldest it got was -4C in late November). The declining phase of the Sunspot Cycle also increases the scope for some colder weather but we do not have a totally quiet Sun as yet.

Btw we had our first snowfall of the season today at just over 400 metres' elevation in the North Pennines. Almost all thawed away now, but we did have an inch of snow-lying (and clearly more on the higher fells).

Would this indicate the possibility of mid-latitude blocking through winter period providing chance of frost and fog and mainly a benign winter? 

[iapennell]

43 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Would this indicate the possibility of mid-latitude blocking through winter period providing chance of frost and fog and mainly a benign winter? 

@Matthew Wilson; If one has concrete reasons to believe the main baroclinic zones (and thus the storm tracks) are pushed up to 70-80N in the European Arctic sector- based on where the very cold air over the pack-ice would meet much warmer (and warmer than usual) sub-arctic waters then yes, there is a possibility of the depressions (and even the extensive south-westerlies associated with them) missing much or all of the United Kingdom. That said, the further north the storm tracks are pushed, the stronger (and more extensive) the associated westerlies because they have to blow harder and more extensively to counter-balance the frictional effects of tropical and polar easterlies when they are closer to the axis of the Earth's rotation. A strongly Westerly QBO is also Westerly AAM stored in the (Equatorial) Stratosphere and sooner or later this, too, must find a sink [at the surface- probably in higher latitudes].

There is a patch of cold water in the mid North Atlantic, which will assist in splitting off the southern portion of the Circumpolar Vortex so some depressions (and Westerlies) can make that a sink for some of the accumulated Westerly AAM. If that happens the sub-arctic Westerlies won't need to be as extensive and Britain could fall in the gap between- into which cold high-pressure from Russia can penetrate. That is the only basis on which I can make any prediction of dry cold and frosty spells; hopefully though this gap between the Mediterranean and Arctic depressions really materialises and proves it's worth: You cannot beat the surreal experience of a countryside glittering thick in hoar-frost under a full moon whilst the -10C air scrubs one's lungs!!

[Matthew.]

A true Siberian flow, the High set up perfectly to bring in air from the depths of Siberia. This happened over 100 years ago in a month which saw a -1.8 CET:

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Ok below is my punt for Nov re general set up which I posted some days ago in Nov CET thread.  I'll be posting my more detailed winter forecast after mid month.  But I have a theme of displaced PV and lots of cold blocking in our locale to influence Dec and Jan at least.  You know me.....I look for cold opportunities as I think a cold regime beckons, this winter could be very nice indeed.

 

I think I've got this well wrong.  ECM showing very interesting development.  In my mind was lots of blocking and second week a strong South Scandinavia block bringing mild conditions to us. I lowered my projection as Oct proved somewhat chillier. Nov could turn out in the cold to darn cold category.

In the model thread Big Steve Murr has beat the drum of ECM being on the money.  I think now after the 12z run it is.  So

Week 1 - we now see the pattern

Week 2.- trough disruption with cold Se/E/NE winds with Scandinavia HP holding

week 3 - Deep LP possible lobe of PV displaced near us but Scandinavian HP to hold or relax?  I think this will be a theme . PV is going to try to form and Nov is pivotal month for that but the hemispheric pattern and deep cold/ strong Siberian High will prevent an organised PV to take hold this winter. So for me it will show its head no doubt but where and what form.  

Week 4 - Pressure builds north to our west (retrogression) and Greenland Iceland block develops  with trough to our E. being squeezed by that strong east block .......very cold end.

 

so the theme seems set to be cold as we see the Siberian factor making its early mark on our winter to come. Episodes of displaced polar vortex to come throughout with a propensity of cold blocking to be never far away.

 

I wish I went nearer 5c

 

BFTP

really excited by winter 2016/7

 

 

 

Edited November 7, 2016 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[white crimbo]

Briefly some milder interludes dispersed by somewhat colder shots and increasing sleet snow to lower levels towards the end of the month. Odd transitional blowy spell thrown in but higher pressure re building at times too, bringing with it more widespread frosts. 

Then almost a repeat of 2010 but ever so slightly colder nearer December and beyond. 

 

[summer blizzard]

6 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Ok below is my punt for Nov re general set up which I posted some days ago in Nov CET thread.  I'll be posting my more detailed winter forecast after mid month.  But I have a theme of displaced PV and lots of cold blocking in our locale to influence Dec and Jan at least.  You know me.....I look for cold opportunities as I think a cold regime beckons, this winter could be very nice indeed.

 

I think I've got this well wrong.  ECM showing very interesting development.  In my mind was lots of blocking and second week a strong South Scandinavia block bringing mild conditions to us. I lowered my projection as Oct proved somewhat chillier. Nov could turn out in the cold to darn cold category.

In the model thread Big Steve Murr has beat the drum of ECM being on the money.  I think now after the 12z run it is.  So

Week 1 - we now see the pattern

Week 2.- trough disruption with cold Se/E/NE winds with Scandinavia HP holding

week 3 - Deep LP possible lobe of PV displaced near us but Scandinavian HP to hold or relax?  I think this will be a theme . PV is going to try to form and Nov is pivotal month for that but the hemispheric pattern and deep cold/ strong Siberian High will prevent an organised PV to take hold this winter. So for me it will show its head no doubt but where and what form.  

Week 4 - Pressure builds north to our west (retrogression) and Greenland Iceland block develops  with trough to our E. being squeezed by that strong east block .......very cold end.

 

so the theme seems set to be cold as we see the Siberian factor making its early mark on our winter to come. Episodes of displaced polar vortex to come throughout with a propensity of cold blocking to be never far away.

 

I wish I went nearer 5c

 

BFTP

really excited by winter 2016/7

 

 

 

Agreed. I believe that the final third of November and first third of December will produce a significant -AO response.

[Summer Sun]

 

[Hotspur62]

Well as parts of Northern Britain enjoy their first snowfall of the season it is easy to forget we are still in the last month of AUTUMN!!What a difference in the NH pattern to last year and with recent updates from IF things are looking encouraging from a coldies perspective. I have felt quite optimistic since early October due to a number of factors including low solar activity,an advancing snowcover in Russia advancing westwards,low Hurricane activity in October,a weakish jetstream and a high pressure over scandi that has been an ever present for the last 6 weeks.That is not even taking into account the state of the PV. However, we must be realistic at the same time and not fall into the trap that the UK is Sweden or Poland and because of this we are not going to endure 3 months of continuos cold and we will have some mildish spells mixed in with some cold spells. The Big difference this year is i think we will see more cold spells than mild spells,esp for Dec and Jan if Met Office LR forecasting model is accurate.

Lets just sit back and enjoy things taking shape and hope for Nationwide snow events,severe frosts and low temperatures!!The UK is due a cold winter after 3 successive mild ones so Bring it on

[markyo]

Just been asked if I thought this would be the only snow we would see this winter,i just laughed and said I doubt it very much with the setup as it is,probably as likely as America voting in a sexist,bullying racist with the intellect of a primate(that's offensive to primates)..... i should have watched the news first this morning then!

[cheese]

I have a friend in the Swedish capital Stockholm.. this is what they woke up to this morning:

If only, eh? 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

8 hours ago, markyo said:

Just been asked if I thought this would be the only snow we would see this winter,i just laughed and said I doubt it very much with the setup as it is,probably as likely as America voting in a sexist,bullying racist with the intellect of a primate(that's offensive to primates)..... i should have watched the news first this morning then!

I suspect this will be the only snow of the season for lowland Britain, though - models are now pushing anything other than zonality into the depths of F.I.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

36 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I suspect this will be the only snow of the season for lowland Britain, though - models are now pushing anything other than zonality into the depths of F.I.

yes, only Nov though, still autumn, but tend to agree with your posts, welcome to 2000+ westerlies modeled all the way

then the straw clutching of the christmas pudding, 384 GFS chart may lead to a SSW, 240 ECM chart shows 6° max, and a NW'ly

[markyo]

1 hour ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I suspect this will be the only snow of the season for lowland Britain, though - models are now pushing anything other than zonality into the depths of F.I.

That is just the same as saying on the 9th of May we can right off any hot spells in Summer after a hot spell to May!! Very strange statement in my opinion,yes models do fluctuate,but it's much more than these movements that need looking at.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

19 minutes ago, markyo said:

That is just the same as saying on the 9th of May we can right off any hot spells in Summer after a hot spell to May!! Very strange statement in my opinion,yes models do fluctuate,but it's much more than these movements that need looking at.

Call it an instinct.  I may well be wrong; in some ways, I'd like to think that I am, although, given the A&E crisis at present, a cold winter may be a huge problem.

[markyo]

1 minute ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Call it an instinct.  I may well be wrong; in some ways, I'd like to think that I am, although, given the A&E crisis at present, a cold winter may be a huge problem.

Fully agree regarding A&E,lot of pressure if its a cold winter. To be honest i feel the current set of models will bring at least 2 to 3 good spells of colder weather,not what the NHS needs i know. BUT that is the current model trend,it may change,our wonderful weather is like that!

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I suspect this will be the only snow of the season for lowland Britain, though - models are now pushing anything other than zonality into the depths of F.I.

A long way to go though.. the season in my book lasts right through to May. We had a lowland snowfall at the end of April this year.. 

[DAVID SNOW]

2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

yes, only Nov though, still autumn, but tend to agree with your posts, welcome to 2000+ westerlies modeled all the way

then the straw clutching of the christmas pudding, 384 GFS chart may lead to a SSW, 240 ECM chart shows 6° max, and a NW'ly

Hello Ian.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I wish Dave, he is way more knowledgeable than me! obviously same thoughts though

[SMU]

3 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I suspect this will be the only snow of the season for lowland Britain, though - models are now pushing anything other than zonality into the depths of F.I.

First winter is over post & we are not even through the first third of November...

 

Ian Browns / atlantic252 / Melanie / large teapot lovechild.

Edited November 9, 2016 by Steve Murr

[stewfox]

9 hours ago, cheese said:

I have a friend in the Swedish capital Stockholm.. this is what they woke up to this morning:

If only, eh? 

I just hope when the snow comes the councils are up to clearing the roads as they were in Oregon cira Feb 1995

Edited November 9, 2016 by stewfox

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

27 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

First winter is over post & we are not even through the first third of November...

 

Ian Browns lovechild.

No, Steve, just a "winter thought" in the "winter thoughts" thread.