Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17

[white crimbo]

Not one not two but several weeks and ongoing of a predominantly easterly flow? Thoughts are that it is very different to the last few winters as for hopes. Snow. At times in abundance. What Winters is about. 

[Spikey M]

I can't help but think we've cashed our chips to early. Surely the West wont be held off too much longer.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Spikey M said:

I can't help but think we've cashed our chips to early. Surely the West wont be held off too much longer.

Quite, the Atlantic will take over at some point, most likely November.Far too early for any confidence of what winter will be like, im just going to enjoy some lovely cold/frosty weather from next weekend onwards, as i live in the pennines i'm expecting some lovely pea souper weather im not sure i can recall the last cold and frosty Bonfire night,they certainly seem to have been few and far between in recent years, i do remember one in the early 80's,not sure of the year though .

[Weather-history]

10 hours ago, nn2013 said:

I vaguely remember November 1993, it snowed on my ninth birthday! I remember the following day we were told school was shut. I don't know whether it's just me but I remember after Christmas that day (around 27th / 28th) it snowed heavily. My Dad went to a Birmingham City v West Brom game and cleared all the snow off the pitch with other fans. My Mum's cat was murdered by a vicious dog we had and I just remember my Mum being upset and I was just playing with my sister in the garden in the snow.

 

Has there ever been a winter where November to March or even November to February have delivered with cold wall to wall with the odd mild interlude? 

 

[Matthew.]

1 hour ago, Spikey M said:

I can't help but think we've cashed our chips to early. Surely the West wont be held off too much longer.

Yes I wonder the same. November taking on the facade of winter only to lead to a counterfeit!

Edited October 23, 2016 by Matthew Wilson

[Mark wheeler]

50 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

 

Thanks weather history . I love it when you post these in reply a great trip down memory lane.

[irishlad69]

16 hours ago, knocker said:

I think you will find that his contract with the Express has since been terminated.

I do believe the scientist is a female

[sundog]

2 hours ago, Spikey M said:

I can't help but think we've cashed our chips to early. Surely the West wont be held off too much longer.

Perhaps,the fear would be by the time we get to winter proper the pattern will have moved on etc. Im hopefull though the pattern is a good sign for the coming winter or at least the first half. Perhaps a good chance of a front loaded winter.

Well the last few winters it was thought that the second halves might deliver,so we waited and waited and waited but nothing ever happened ,so i dont mind too much if we do cash in our chips a bit early this yr.

[white crimbo]

3 hours ago, Spikey M said:

I can't help but think we've cashed our chips to early. Surely the West wont be held off too much longer.

Logic states this could well be the case although any remaining blocking could possibly send the driving force we all know as the jet stream on a more southerly route bringing disturbed weather to the med area?  Apart from a few short lived periods most of October has had the easterly flow continuing. Interesting stuff which could herald a few surprises into the new month. Baby steps? 

http://metro.co.uk/2016/10/19/uk-gets-first-snow-in-early-sign-that-winter-is-coming-6200968/

Hardly unusual to see snow up on higher ground but the signals are and remain there looking at forecasts into start of November.

Edited October 23, 2016 by white crimbo

[fergieweather]

7 minutes ago, white crimbo said:

Logic states this could well be the case although any remaining blocking could possibly send the driving force we all know as the jet stream on a more southerly route bringing disturbed weather to the med area?  Apart from a few short lived periods most of October has had the easterly flow continuing. Interesting stuff which could herald a few surprises into the new month. Baby steps? 

http://metro.co.uk/2016/10/19/uk-gets-first-snow-in-early-sign-that-winter-is-coming-6200968/

Hardly unusual to see snow up on higher ground but the signals are and remain there looking at forecasts into start of November.

....and some very interesting ongoing signals for rest of Nov and 1st half of winter. Rest assured we have some very interesting model-watching coming our way :-) Enjoy.

[white crimbo]

3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Quite, the Atlantic will take over at some point, most likely November.Far too early for any confidence of what winter will be like, im just going to enjoy some lovely cold/frosty weather from next weekend onwards, as i live in the pennines i'm expecting some lovely pea souper weather im not sure i can recall the last cold and frosty Bonfire night,they certainly seem to have been few and far between in recent years, i do remember one in the early 80's,not sure of the year though .

This time next week from short sleeves to chunky sweaters in a matter of a day or two. As for a snowy bonfire now that would put the cat amongst the pigeons! Unlikely but never say never. 

[Hocus Pocus]

4 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

....and some very interesting ongoing signals for rest of Nov and 1st half of winter. Rest assured we have some very interesting model-watching coming our way :-) Enjoy.

You do know you shouldn't tease the customers like that Ian.. 

[Mark wheeler]

Well it's not November the 5th yet but I think the blue touch paper has just been lit.

[moorlander]

11 minutes ago, Hocus Pocus said:

You do know you shouldn't tease the customers like that Ian.. 

Oh i think he shouldit makes it more fun that way

It brings out the inner child in most even if they won't admit it

Edited October 23, 2016 by moorlander

[white crimbo]

14 minutes ago, Hocus Pocus said:

You do know you shouldn't tease the customers like that Ian.. 

If you need any tips fergieweather then please feel free    

Cheers for the heads up of course!  

[Snowyowl9]

Blocking highs are always a good sign and this morning keeps it going into November depends where they are,looks warmer later this week indian summer blip after a ground frost, then early november Greenland/Iceland high.

Edited October 23, 2016 by Snowyowl9

[Dancerwithwings]

Bonfire night looks to be cold and frosty this year but if we are looking at extremes in the UK.....   Brrrr  -11.1c and then  shorts & T shirt weather 21.1c

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/events/bonfire-night#?tab=map&map=Temperature&zoom=5&lon=-3.25&lat=55.74&fcTime=1477591200

 

Edited October 23, 2016 by Dancerwithwings

[Ali1977]

Another good GFS run with colder weather  hitting most of the UK on Halloween , FI not as good as the 06z with less blocking around Greenland and Canada - that is FI though and it still looks good. lets see what the ENS and ECM say!! 

Edited October 23, 2016 by Ali1977

[Catacol]

On 20/10/2016 at 14:30, lassie23 said:

I'm hoping that my October Fog Index theory goes tights up this winter, as yet again I have had zero fog this month which usually means another snow less winter if you believe in weather lore, it has been correct the past three winters.

Had quite a bit of fog here in the SW though not especially thick. Saw very little to no fog in the last few years so a definite contrast in that regard.

[Summer Sun]

@Gibby has posted his thoughts for winter on his new Kilmersdon Weather facebook page

Quote

 

Last night I said I would give my thoughts on the Winter to come. This is not a forecast but there are clues in the seas around the World that could give an indicator as to what to expect. You may have heard of 'El Nino' which featured heavily in last years Winter being much milder than average. This does not exist this year so with a resultant weaker Jet Stream gales and heavy rain from the Atlantic may be less frequent this year. Secondly sea ice melt this year has been exceptional in parts of the Arctic especially around the Barents Sea area between Norway and Russia. This Summers warmth and resultant sea ice loss results in warmer waters there which is thought to enable High pressure systems to develop much easier over that area as has happened currently. In such an event East or NE winds are more probable than normal across the UK which could give rise to a higher than normal incidence of cold air from Russia flooding West at times with potential snowfall.

If the current spell had occurred in 3 months time we could well of seen day and night temperatures hardly above freezing with tonight's expected rain likely to of been falling as snow. Lastly a large blob of colder than average water lies to the West of the UK and extends down from Southern Greenland (see map below). This could be a reason why the Atlantic has been quite subdued so far this Autumn with much less wind and rain across the area than normal due to those cooler Atlantic waters favouring a weaker Jet Stream as warmer waters in the Atlantic powers up the Jet Stream and creates deeper depressions. Putting all these things together I think this Winter will be different to last.

I think we will be seeing a lot more High pressure than average positioned over the North Atlantic, Greenland, the UK or Scandinavia. While I'm not predicting a massive winter long freeze there appears to be a greater chance of at least cold and frosty weather more commonly than any Winter since 2010 and while it stays cold snow is always a possibility. Overall I think rainfall will be below average with much less storminess than in average Winters with frost, fog and snow occurring more frequently than recent years and certainly more so than last year.

Temperatures over December, January and February will probably end up below average overall but that's not discounting some short milder interludes. In the short term there are already weak pointers towards an early chilly blast especially in Northern Britain early in November where they might see their first Winter snows-whether that transpires and how far South it comes will be something to watch. We should all be reaching for our anti-freeze and de-icer soon because cold weather always has a habit of coming upon us suddenly and then we find we are ill prepared. I'll keep you informed. The three charts below illustrate where my thoughts are founded.

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/Kilmersdonweather/

[Smiler1709]

I've been going in the mod threads everyday watching the excitement build, in all honestly I think some are getting way ahead of themselves concerning the high blocking and weak jet stream. would love a cold snowy winter but reality is it won't be. I will put money on that the vortex will of sorted its act out by mid November and the Atlantic will be full steam ahead as we enter December, the season for my thinking is our seasons seem to of shifted the last few years we now get summer later so on with autumn and winter, I believe all we are seeing now is an Indian summer effect with the northern hemisphere not quite getting its act together. I hope I'm wrong but every time I go into the mod thread I'm just waiting for the normal service to begin. 

 

My my prediction for winter 2016/17 will start on the chilly side with bouts of warm air from Spain, rain levels to remain low through late autumn. I expect things in the northern hemisphere to sort itself out and return normal service with a organised vortex dictating our winter weather with a westerly based theme but with bouts of cold outbreaks from the north. Rainfall amounts will catch up on recent low totals. 

Hope to god I'm wrong because my little girl still haven't seen snow and I've promised to build her a snowman but in reality I think i will have to go somewhere on a winter break to build her that snowman. 

[markyo]

And so the rollercoaster begins its journey but its that overall view you must take,one grouping of runs doesn't make a trend,chances are this time tomorrow or day after things will have changed again. Given the comments already the local Prozac dealers must be rubbing their hands together!

[Guest]

i wonder how many times this will happen over the next 5 months lol

[Lettucing Gutted]

On ‎22‎/‎10‎/‎2016 at 20:51, nn2013 said:

I vaguely remember November 1993, it snowed on my ninth birthday! I remember the following day we were told school was shut. I don't know whether it's just me but I remember after Christmas that day (around 27th / 28th) it snowed heavily. My Dad went to a Birmingham City v West Brom game and cleared all the snow off the pitch with other fans. My Mum's cat was murdered by a vicious dog we had and I just remember my Mum being upset and I was just playing with my sister in the garden in the snow.

 

Has there ever been a winter where November to March or even November to February have delivered with cold wall to wall with the odd mild interlude? 

The whole period of November 1878 through March 1879 was very cold.  Gavin Partridge has been saying he will do a historic video about it 1 day.

[snowsummer]

7 hours ago, More Snow said:

i wonder how many times this will happen over the next 5 months lol

Next 5 months???? Next 5 days and I'd have enough to open a toyshop (or at least replace the ones I'VE  already lost this week!