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Polar Maritime

Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17

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6 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

sorry mate, straws comes to mind!

Perhaps John, but only time will tell.:)

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7 hours ago, Paul_1978 said:

Whatever happens, I'm not looking forward to the old "winter clichés" rolling out, eg:

  • "Close but no cigar"
  • "...at this juncture..."
  • "It's a long way back to cold from there".
  • "It's Christmas, there's missing balloon data".
  • "It looks like the Atlantic is coming back in" (accompanied by a T+384 chart). [Read the same for people being overly confident with a cold chart at T+384]
  • "Will it snow in Carlisle?"
  • "Let's wait for the ensembles"
  • "Look at this from the NAVGEM"

Great post, but you you missed the CFS there!

Just for fun, let's look at what the CFS jukebox is coming up with at the moment...

cfs-1-1-2017.png?18  cfs-1-2-2017.png?18  cfs-1-3-2017.png?18

Some serious northern blocking in there too:

cfs-3-1-2017.png?18  cfs-3-2-2017.png?18

I guess if you could buy a set of charts, many on here would get their cheque-books out for these?

Edited by Man With Beard
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8 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Perhaps John, but only time will tell.:)

True enough David, but for every 'link' anyone finds, there are at least as many that do not 'link' with similar background signals. Or that is what I find with any suggestions so far, not just this particular link. I spent many many hours trying to find a link decades ago but never got anywhere. So if anyone finds such a link then they need have no worries about money!

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Oh why not - it's the winter hopes thread after all!

This is the most severe I could find from the CFS. A sub-zero January CET, averaging between 2mm and 4mm precipitation per day - a snow-maker of a month! 

cfs-3-1-2017.png?00  cfs-1-1-2017.png?00  cfs-7-1-2017.png?00  cfs-5-1-2017.png?00

(NOTE THIS IS NOT MY FORECAST!!!)

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Don't forget the following:

"The GFS 6Z is always the warmest run of the four"

"One for the shredder"

"It's the GFS vs. ECM and UKMO and I know which one I'm backing"

"The 18z has been down the pub again"

The runs become living entities during winter! Haha.

Edited by Radiating Dendrite
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1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

True enough David, but for every 'link' anyone finds, there are at least as many that do not 'link' with similar background signals. Or that is what I find with any suggestions so far, not just this particular link. I spent many many hours trying to find a link decades ago but never got anywhere. So if anyone finds such a link then they need have no worries about money!

Yes John, I remember well you saying how much time you had spent back then, trying to find a link, can I ask if solar activity was considered to be relevant  back in the day?

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1 hour ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Yes John, I remember well you saying how much time you had spent back then, trying to find a link, can I ask if solar activity was considered to be relevant  back in the day?

nar, never heard of it then! It is quite amazing just how many factors now come into play compared to what folk new 20 let alone 40 or more years ago.

Maybe someone will discover a workable link that gives good results for shall we say 7 out of 10 instances then we might have something to play with seriously. It would take some of the fun out though.

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It would have been BOOM! were it not for that pesky spoiler shortwave...

The BOM is very bullish about bringing-in -20C uppers, at T+5000!

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55 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

nar, never heard of it then! It is quite amazing just how many factors now come into play compared to what folk new 20 let alone 40 or more years ago.

Maybe someone will discover a workable link that gives good results for shall we say 7 out of 10 instances then we might have something to play with seriously. It would take some of the fun out though.

Thanks, and yes it probably would.

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45 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

It would have been BOOM! were it not for that pesky spoiler shortwave...

The BOM is very bullish about bringing-in -20C uppers, at T+5000!

Building Blocks.... One of Knockers favourites:D

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I wonder how many times we will see the Phrase "Back on Topic"

In the MOD thread.

Quick look through the thread and its started already.:oops:

C.S

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Truth be told, as long as it's reasonably dry I don't really care anymore. I do not want a repeat of last winter - that was horrific. 

My preference would be for lots of cold, crisp days and starry, bitterly cold nights. Plenty of sunshine. Wouldn't mind the odd storm here or there, but would prefer nothing overly mild.

A few decent snow events would be nice, I seem to get at least one here every winter, although I had to wait until March 4th for the first (and only) good fall of snow this year, with around 4 inches accumulating over the course of about 6 hours of continuous snowfall. It was even sub-zero at midday, but not an ice day.

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September-winter link

Look at it this way, why would a specific 30 day period in the Earth's orbit would have an influence on a specific 90 day period in which there is a 61 day gap between the two said periods?

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1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

September-winter link

Look at it this way, why would a specific 30 day period in the Earth's orbit would have an influence on a specific 90 day period in which there is a 61 day gap between the two said periods?

Whilst the association might seem random and arbitrary, I believe the "Very Mild September=Mild Winter Theory" is due to the "memory" of the associated September SST anomaly patterns in the North Atlantic which can determine the winter NAO pattern.  This is the same idea behind use of the North Atlantic SSTs in May to predict the winter NAO pattern.  September is also the month when North Atlantic and other northern oceans are often at their warmest temperatures for the year.

It is surprising though how there is apparently never any equivalent theory used for predicting the summer NAO pattern by using the North Atlantic SSTs from November or/and even March which is when North Atlantic and other northern oceans are often at their coldest temperatures for the year.

Edited by Lettucing Gutted
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15 hours ago, johnholmes said:

sorry mate, straws comes to mind!

So John I agree linking Sept to how winter pans out is clutching at straws.  I was just mentioning that it is entirely possible for a cold winter to follow mild Sept.  But I stick to task, this winter will have some wild swings and won't be a SW'ly fest 

 

 

LG but haven't the Met Office binned their May SST to call the NAO in winter theory because it isn't reliable?

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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22 hours ago, Paul_1978 said:

Whatever happens, I'm not looking forward to the old "winter clichés" rolling out, eg:

  • "Close but no cigar"
  • "...at this juncture..."
  • "It's a long way back to cold from there".
  • "It's Christmas, there's missing balloon data".
  • "It looks like the Atlantic is coming back in" (accompanied by a T+384 chart). [Read the same for people being overly confident with a cold chart at T+384]
  • "Will it snow in Carlisle?"
  • "Let's wait for the ensembles"
  • "Look at this from the NAVGEM"

Ha ha! Mods, can all of these phrases and the other ones that other posters have mentioned be put in the swear filter? Some amusing replacements could be made and it would teach people to be a little more thoughtful in the way they post.

Edited by Seasonality
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1 hour ago, Lettucing Gutted said:

Whilst the association might seem random and arbitrary, I believe the "Very Mild September=Mild Winter Theory" is due to the "memory" of the associated September SST anomaly patterns in the North Atlantic which can determine the winter NAO pattern.  This is the same idea behind use of the North Atlantic SSTs in May to predict the winter NAO pattern.  September is also the month when North Atlantic and other northern oceans are often at their warmest temperatures for the year.

It is surprising though how there is apparently never any equivalent theory used for predicting the summer NAO pattern by using the North Atlantic SSTs from November or/and even March which is when North Atlantic and other northern oceans are often at their coldest temperatures for the year.

I'm not sure oceans have memories. An exception being in the excellent sci fi novel Solaris by Stanisław Lem :)

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2 hours ago, Seasonality said:

I'm not sure oceans have memories. An exception being in the excellent sci fi novel Solaris by Stanisław Lem :)

In effect oceans have a thermal memory.  This is due to the great heat capacity of oceans compared to continental surfaces.  In terms of the natural annual solar and heat cycle, oceans have a lag time of almost 3 months to respond to the changes in sign of solar radiation across both of the solstices.  Anomalies in SST also persist for lengthy periods due to the great heat capacity of oceans.  Even on longer time scales of centuries and even millennia oceans can take a very long time to respond to major long term climate changes.

Edited by Lettucing Gutted

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3 hours ago, Lettucing Gutted said:

In effect oceans have a thermal memory.  This is due to the great heat capacity of oceans compared to continental surfaces.  In terms of the natural annual solar and heat cycle, oceans have a lag time of almost 3 months to respond to the changes in sign of solar radiation across both of the solstices.  Anomalies in SST also persist for lengthy periods due to the great heat capacity of oceans.  Even on longer time scales of centuries and even millennia oceans can take a very long time to respond to major long term climate changes.

Well, yes, I'm aware of the thermal dynamics of the oceans. But to suggest they somehow 'remember' a previous state was inaccurate.

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1 hour ago, Seasonality said:

Well, yes, I'm aware of the thermal dynamics of the oceans. But to suggest they somehow 'remember' a previous state was inaccurate.

It's not a case of remembering, it is the return to the cooler subsurface temps by mixing the top layers in autumn storms. The surface warms out during summer but by winter, the SST anomaly pattern should resemble what was there at the beginning of May.

7 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

LG but haven't the Met Office binned their May SST to call the NAO in winter theory because it isn't reliable?

No, UKMO still use this, it was in their winter forecast last year and the year before. Fergie posted links to a winter outlook for a European weather agency.

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Just going to go wake up some of the winter exclusive users on this website from their summer slumber.

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I look forward to the chronic misuse of the term "shortwave"

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22 minutes ago, Nick L said:

I look forward to the chronic misuse of the term "shortwave"

Full of potential....

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