Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17

[bobbydog]

as far as i can remember, 'accuweather' have been more 'inaccuweather'... latest GFS run doesnt show any signs of stormy weather towards the end of its run. the MetO 30 day forecast mentions nothing of the sort other than some occasional unsettled weather. my 6 year old son could make up a forecast and have just as much chance of being right....

[NeilN]

What did Accuweather say for 2015/6 and 2014/5? Plus wouldn't stormy mean anything as opposed to flooding? I do agree this October is following 2009 and 2012 and I reckon it'll go the same way of those winters. 

[Mapantz]

Just now, nn2013 said:

What did Accuweather say for 2015/6 and 2014/5? Plus wouldn't stormy mean anything as opposed to flooding? I do agree this October is following 2009 and 2012 and I reckon it'll go the same way of those winters. 

http://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2015-2016-europe-winter-forecast-seasonable-london-paris-storms-france-italy-alps/52871620

For some reason, I have a complete blank about last Winter, here.

[NeilN]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

http://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2015-2016-europe-winter-forecast-seasonable-london-paris-storms-france-italy-alps/52871620

For some reason, I have a complete blank about last Winter, here.

Thank you - they were right about the storms, but seasonable.....December in particular was far from it! I'll take this with a pinch of salt. I believe they got summer right for us this year, so that's one season lol 

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, nn2013 said:

Thank you - they were right about the storms, but seasonable.....December in particular was far from it! I'll take this with a pinch of salt. I believe they got summer right for us this year, so that's one season lol 

Exactly! And can anyone name a year without storms? 

I can recall, that 2013/14 had not one single day of falling (let alone settling!) snow, around here...Did Accuweather predict that? Rao and Madden certainly didn't!

[NeilN]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Exactly! And can anyone name a year without storms? 

I can recall, that 2013/14 had not one single day of falling (let alone settling!) snow, around here...Did Accuweather predict that? Rao and Madden certainly didn't!

EVERY winter has Storms - even the famous 2009/10, 2010/11 and 2012/13 ones did! It's madness. That winter, my Mum did a housemove on the 25th of January - the mildest January she's ever experienced in her 50 years and the only January where she hasn't had to wrap up whilst moving furniture! 

[Cwmbran Eira]

just looked back at accuweathers winter forecast 2013/14 onwards. Just slight variations on average UK winter.

http://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-warmer/19131940

http://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-2014-2015-forecast-snow-cold/36777733

http://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2015-2016-europe-winter-forecast-seasonable-london-paris-storms-france-italy-alps/52871620

not a great track record there

[Weather-history]

3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Accuweather winter forecast

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-2016-2017-stormy-uk-mild-wet-france-germany/60378723

This was their forecast last year

"High pressure to the north of the United Kingdom for much of the winter season will result in a very typical winter for parts of northwest Europe with stretches of tranquil weather and overall near-normal temperatures."

Way out.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

This was their forecast last year

"High pressure to the north of the United Kingdom for much of the winter season will result in a very typical winter for parts of northwest Europe with stretches of tranquil weather and overall near-normal temperatures."

Way out.

certainly is way out, HP to north of UK wouldn't be near normal temps? would be below normal? and certainly not typical winter

[NeilN]

2014/15 - it was bitter in parts, but we had no snow down here! I don't believe it at all. 

[Methuselah]

IMO, correctly forecasting the outcome of a Scandinavian HP has always been fraught with problems...

I remember back when my kids were wee: the mid-week BBC/MO forecast, for the following weekend, was for Sunday's temps to approach +15C...But, instead of the HP drawing-up a warm southerly, the wind switched into the ENE...Rain to freezing rain to snow (on the Friday) was the result...By Sunday minimum temps were in the order of -10C...

I think that was in February 1984?

[Dancerwithwings]

I've been informed by the s.n.o.w p.o.l.i.c.e that at some point it will come ;-)

 

 

[Walsall Wood Snow]

On 03/10/2016 at 22:19, Optimus Prime said:

 

It is my also my experience that any forecasting organization has got a a very poor track record when it comes to long range forecasts. Especially official ones put out by the collective organisation. Some amateur individuals in fact seem to be closer to the mark. In fact the best I have ever come across was Glaciar Point. But unfortunately for us he doesn't post on here so much any more. I mean he wasn't always spot on (who is) but his long range outlooks were always fairly close. In fact he correctly called the breakdown and subsequent lack of cold weather after December 2010, when many were expecting more of the same at the time. On the other hand he did predict a major easterly event in December 2012, which failed in the end, but to be fair the major models were predicting as such right to the nail. It's a shame though we don't get his insight these days as he was a brilliant forecaster.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

On 03/10/2016 at 22:19, Optimus Prime said:

 

Well Iapennell is going for a rather unspectacular Winter with his preliminary forecast. No surprise there really. Not that I'm saying he'll be wrong but he's certainly not expecting the early cold some long range forecasts are hinting. I'm not too sure how to take his forecasts as yet as he does seem to be a (it's going to be mild all the time) type of forecaster. Though of course he does mention possible short lived cold snaps, particularly for Scotland, but no beast from the east type scenarios. Plus he didn't join the forum until post Winter 2012/13 so it's hard to know whether his Winter forecasts have been close to correct by chance or whether he's that good he would indeed call a cold Winter if it's going to happen or he's some latest Ian Brown type character (I don't want this to come across as accusatory or offensive by the way). Whatever's the case there's no doubt he's meteorologically literate. I guess we'll see though.

Edited October 5, 2016 by Walsall Wood Snow

[Gael_Force]

26 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Well Iapennell is going for a rather unspectacular Winter with his preliminary forecast. No surprise there really. Not that I'm saying he'll be wrong but he's certainly not expecting the early cold some long range forecasts are hinting. I'm not too sure how to take his forecasts as yet as he does seem to be a (it's going to be mild all the time) type of forecaster. Though of course he does mention possible short lived cold snaps, particularly for Scotland, but no beast from the east type scenarios. Plus he didn't join the forum until post Winter 2012/13 so it's hard to know whether his Winter forecasts have been close to correct by chance or whether he's that good he would indeed call a cold Winter if it's going to happen or he's some latest Ian Brown type character (I don't want this to come across as accusatory or offensive by the way). Whatever's the case there's no doubt he's meteorologically literate. I guess we'll see though.

I read Ian's postings and interesting as they are, I find myself saying "step away from the text book, Ian!"

He may be right, climatology would be on his side but there seems to be so many factors that are 'new' in our understanding of how it all works.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

5 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

I read Ian's postings and interesting as they are, I find myself saying "step away from the text book, Ian!"

He may be right, climatology would be on his side but there seems to be so many factors that are 'new' in our understanding of how it all works.

It's his bullishness concerning lack of frosts many weeks into the future that gets me. I mean he could be right but he seems very sure of himself when he says such things. How can anyone really. I don't know though maybe he's one of very few people who's mastered the art of long range weather forecasting to be able to confidently make such statements. 

[Matthew.]

7 hours ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

It's his bullishness concerning lack of frosts many weeks into the future that gets me. I mean he could be right but he seems very sure of himself when he says such things. How can anyone really. I don't know though maybe he's one of very few people who's mastered the art of long range weather forecasting to be able to confidently make such statements. 

I find anyones detailed long-range forecasts interesting and I think Mr Ian Pennell puts a lot of effort into such forecasts I would take any very early predictions with a pinch of salt though because so many variables can change. Realistically just October and November is to be taken more seriously. He's going for a mild 2 months turning on the stormy side. 

[Seasonality]

9 hours ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Well Iapennell is going for a rather unspectacular Winter with his preliminary forecast. No surprise there really. Not that I'm saying he'll be wrong but he's certainly not expecting the early cold some long range forecasts are hinting. I'm not too sure how to take his forecasts as yet as he does seem to be a (it's going to be mild all the time) type of forecaster. Though of course he does mention possible short lived cold snaps, particularly for Scotland, but no beast from the east type scenarios. Plus he didn't join the forum until post Winter 2012/13 so it's hard to know whether his Winter forecasts have been close to correct by chance or whether he's that good he would indeed call a cold Winter if it's going to happen or he's some latest Ian Brown type character (I don't want this to come across as accusatory or offensive by the way). Whatever's the case there's no doubt he's meteorologically literate. I guess we'll see though.

Mr Pennell clearly puts much thought and effort into his forecasts. I especially like his unusual geo-engineering ideas to cool down the earth, they feel right out of a Jules Verne novel. He clearly likes cold but I feel maybe he is a pessimist and assumes mild. We all have our pre-conceptions and confirmation bias and what not and I think that his forecasts may follow the track of his assumptions. No offence to Mr Pennell, there are many who assume arctic cold and do the same thing. Hats off to him for his contribution to the forum, I always find him fascinating and I couldn't produce anything like he does. One of the most difficult factors in forecasting, and one that is frequently overlooked, is the ability to view all the data available with complete objectivity. I hope he keeps posting.

[Gavin Hannah]

A 2009 Repeat is on the cards this year.. I can feel it me bones! 

[joggs]

18 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Accuweather winter forecast

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-2016-2017-stormy-uk-mild-wet-france-germany/60378723

Greatest threat of snowfall Sheffield lolololol.

That's hilarious.

Dear oh dear.

[jvenge]

It looks like a strange forecast, indeed. A storm or two, really? Insightful. Snow most likely in Edinburgh and Sheffield? :-D

Well, who knows if they are right, but they were way off the mark last year.

[MP-R]

The current synoptics leading up to Christmas with snow thereafter would be lovely. Get the cold in and entrenched then no problems with marginality. Settled, cold, frosty weather in the lead up to Christmas I find magical.

[jvenge]

4 minutes ago, MP-R said:

The current synoptics leading up to Christmas with snow thereafter would be lovely. Get the cold in and entrenched then no problems with marginality. Settled, cold, frosty weather in the lead up to Christmas I find magical.

Might be unlucky though in the sense that charts many would have sold a kidney for last winter are now popping up in October.

Fingers crossed though.

[Methuselah]

One thing, (among many) in Ian P's winter forecast, that grabbed my attention was the Baltic Sea's +6C SST anomaly...Could that, of itself, be at least partly responsible for the current rapid European snow-advance? It should (shouldn't it?) create more 'lake-effect' snow than would a normal anomaly...I do sooo love to clutch at straws!

[terrier]

Well my hopes would be something along the lines of Dec 2010.  But after reading that brilliant well written forecast from Ian p my fears are that we could possibly see more in the way of wind and rain making the headlines this winter.