Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17

[March]

25 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

There is a saying winter's back typically breaks middle of February... mmm there hasn't been much winter to talk about this year (admittedly latter part of Jan and last week were quite cold but very little snow).

Thoughts are now turning to spring, but I never discount the likelihood of snowy very cold conditions until around mid March, and even after then, a cold northerly blast should never be discounted into well into May..indeed they have a habit of occuring more so during spring than winter.

Alas, whilst the immediate outlook looks very mild, I wouldn't be surprised to see our first snow cover of the season occur out of the winter months, thanks to an arctic incursion, signs are we may see such weather first part of March.

Given we've now had 4 mostly snowless and mild/very mild winters in a row, I may have to book myself a winter snow/cold holiday next year, not sure I can stomach another one, surely winter 17/18 will deliver at least a few snowy cold days close to freezing, not too much to ask is it.

It will be interesting to note average temps over European countries this winter, most I suspect will have recorded a below average one, those in the SE notably below, with the UK and Scandi shining above average. I think the same occured in winter 01/02 another one, which saw much mid lattitude blocking and snow and cold reserved for SE quarter of the continent.

I see 0.3 air frosts in May per year, so 3 days with an air frost in 10 years during May. I think it's safe to give up on winter long before May.....

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

You not had any snow Damian? cor didn't think things were that bad,

Yes not a cover as yet, just an odd day here and there with a bit of light stuff falling from the sky and giving a blink and miss it patchy coating. Closest we came to a cover was in late November, it has been very poor on the snow stakes. Last winter we managed at least one morning with a cover on the 17 Jan, it thawed by lunchtime..

[gone]

At least, all of you got snow in the UK. I did not get anything in Beijing for the first time in years. I usually build a snowman and I love the frost on trees. This year zero. Now, having said that I am looking forward to Spring and the cherrie blossoms.  

[Weather-history]

8 hours ago, damianslaw said:

There is a saying winter's back typically breaks middle of February... mmm there hasn't been much winter to talk about this year (admittedly latter part of Jan and last week were quite cold but very little snow).

Thoughts are now turning to spring, but I never discount the likelihood of snowy very cold conditions until around mid March, and even after then, a cold northerly blast should never be discounted into well into May..indeed they have a habit of occuring more so during spring than winter.

Alas, whilst the immediate outlook looks very mild, I wouldn't be surprised to see our first snow cover of the season occur out of the winter months, thanks to an arctic incursion, signs are we may see such weather first part of March.

Given we've now had 4 mostly snowless and mild/very mild winters in a row, I may have to book myself a winter snow/cold holiday next year, not sure I can stomach another one, surely winter 17/18 will deliver at least a few snowy cold days close to freezing, not too much to ask is it.

It will be interesting to note average temps over European countries this winter, most I suspect will have recorded a below average one, those in the SE notably below, with the UK and Scandi shining above average. I think the same occured in winter 01/02 another one, which saw much mid lattitude blocking and snow and cold reserved for SE quarter of the continent.

You are thinking 2005-06.

2001-02 went very zonal mid January 

[Summer Sun]

Later next week's possible cold snap the models are showing could be a nothing event looking at the temps the beeb are showing

Daytime lows later next week

Birmingham 9c

London 11c

Brighton

Newcastle 8c

Edinburgh 7c

All those are no worse than average

[North-Easterly Blast]

3 hours ago, Weather-history said:

You are thinking 2005-06.

2001-02 went very zonal mid January 

Yes winter 2005-06 saw quite a lot of blocking around the UK for most of the season, although the pattern was never favourable for an intense cold spell to develop. and although a number of weak easterly spells occurred, a classic easterly spell never happened, and overall the winter ended up close to average.  March saw a number of northerlies and easterlies that year and was on the cold side.

Winter 2001-02 started rather cold and blocked in December with frequent frosts though nothing exceptional, but after the first week of January went downhill significantly and the rest of the winter was ridiculously mild that year - it was utter bile throughout most of January and all February 2002.

[summer blizzard]

The winter of 06 was leagues above this one. While both had high pressure very dominant this one has managed two proper northerlies and an easterly so tame that it rained (even 2012 managed sleet). March 06 was running on par with 13 until about the 20th. 

[MP-R]

18 hours ago, damianslaw said:

There is a saying winter's back typically breaks middle of February... mmm there hasn't been much winter to talk about this year (admittedly latter part of Jan and last week were quite cold but very little snow).

 

So many examples of this in more recent years. This current spell of weather reminds me of the second half of February 2012 and 2009. Interestingly,both of those Febs led on to snowless Marches for the majority (although here we had evidence of overnight snow on the 04th March and the Mendips got a covering). Compare that to February 2013 which was cold and led on to a cold March, and February 2014 which was unsettled and led on to a largely unsettled March. 

Maybe somebody can pick one out from further back, but I can't off the top of my head think of a mild February that was followed by a cold March.

[Summer Sun]

I suspect some local temperature records will be broken on Monday

All time record is 19.7c set at the Greenwich Observatory, London on 13th February 1998

[hillbilly]

1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

The winter of 06 was leagues above this one. While both had high pressure very dominant this one has managed two proper northerlies and an easterly so tame that it rained (even 2012 managed sleet). March 06 was running on par with 13 until about the 20th. 

Yes this winter has been of similar pattern to that of 2005/2006 but has not matched it for cold .I seem to remember it dragging on as a lot cold periods which is backed up with the met office air frost figures for this area.Indeed the extended winter of October to may  that season had more air frosts than any season since 1993 except for 2012/13 and 2009/10 only just been beaten by the latter by 2.Both November 2005 and march 2006 were very frosty periods and I also vividly remember the grass in march/April being very yellow ,which had not happened for many years ,a sign of a cold winter.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

48 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

I suspect some local temperature records will be broken on Monday

All time record is 19.7c set at the Greenwich Observatory, London on 13th February 1998

said a few days ago, this could be like a Feb '98, and 19 years on, now we are that bit warmer, record could be broken, maybe 20° in E/NE?

[Summer Sun]

11 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

said a few days ago, this could be like a Feb '98, and 19 years on, now we are that bit warmer, record could be broken, maybe 20° in E/NE?

I'd say no

The areas where 17c could be hit is likely to be quite isolated

Still exceptionally mild for the time of year

[I remember Atlantic 252]

11 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

I'd say no

The areas where 17c could be hit is likely to be quite isolated

Still exceptionally mild for the time of year

Probably right, but February is getting less wintry

[Summer Sun]

Next weekend

Unsettled
Windy
Colder than this weekend but not as cold as last weekend

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/39008435

[Eugene]

I've quite enjoyed this winter, mainly anticyclonic with a lack of rain and very mild weather, some stations have recorded higher than average night frosts.

Looking forward to Spring now with a mixture of pleasant warmth, night frosts, wintry showers and some early to mid Spring atlantic storms, Spring in the UK isn't one warm long season some on here think.

[Summer Sun]

 

[Don]

On 17/02/2017 at 15:51, MP-R said:

Maybe somebody can pick one out from further back, but I can't off the top of my head think of a mild February that was followed by a cold March.

The closest I can think of is 1995.  February had a CET of 6.5C and March 5.6C.  OK, not really a cold March as it was only 0.1C below the 1961-90 average but it was still a lot colder than the February it followed.  The start of March 1995 was wintry and parts of Central Southern England had a fair bit of snow on the 2nd and the month finished on a wintry note, too. 

Edited February 18, 2017 by Don

[Weather-history]

On 17 February 2017 at 15:51, MP-R said:

 

Maybe somebody can pick one out from further back, but I can't off the top of my head think of a mild February that was followed by a cold March.

1980 

[Summer Sun]

Rest of February

Unsettled
Windy
Mostly Mild
Very little frost

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/39016199

[Don]

28 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Rest of February

Unsettled
Windy
Mostly Mild
Very little frost

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/39016199

No surprises there.  Too late for a February revival now!

[Thundery wintry showers]

1975 also had a mild February followed by a cold March.  Another example that springs to mind is 1949; that was a generally very warm year but it had a cold March.

Philip Eden previously wrote a few articles on the very strange winter of 1890/91.  It had a record-breaking cold and cloudy December, a mild, sunny and very dry February, and then a very cold March with some exceptional snowfall for the Midlands and south-west if I remember rightly.

March 1995 was a better example in Scotland than in Central England; many parts of Scotland were between 1 and 2C colder than the 1961-90 average and had 15 to 20 days with sleet/snow falling.

Edited February 18, 2017 by Thundery wintry showers

[North-Easterly Blast]

1 hour ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

1975 also had a mild February followed by a cold March.  Another example that springs to mind is 1949; that was a generally very warm year but it had a cold March.

Philip Eden previously wrote a few articles on the very strange winter of 1890/91.  It had a record-breaking cold and cloudy December, a mild, sunny and very dry February, and then a very cold March with some exceptional snowfall for the Midlands and south-west if I remember rightly.

March 1995 was a better example in Scotland than in Central England; many parts of Scotland were between 1 and 2C colder than the 1961-90 average and had 15 to 20 days with sleet/snow falling.

February 1975 was only slightly above the long term average.  It had a CET of 4.4.  March 1975 wasn't even quite as cold as the February it followed; March 1975 CET was 4.8, so still around 1*C below the long term average, which is very respectable, when you consider it came on the back of an exceptionally mild winter, especially December and January, so it goes to show that you can have a very mild winter followed by a respectable March.

1980 is an example of a poor February followed by a respectable March.

Edited February 18, 2017 by North-Easterly Blast

[damianslaw]

On 17/02/2017 at 05:16, Weather-history said:

You are thinking 2005-06.

2001-02 went very zonal mid January 

I was meant to say winter 91/92 which was a predominantly anticyclonic winter with well below average rainfall. Very very comparable to this winter more so than 05/06 in the NW especially.

[JBMWeatherForever]

I find it funny that in our Temperate Maritime Climate, after a few winters without any decent snow, people start saying that a decent snowfall is now becoming a rear event!  What we had in March 2013 was a once in a lifetime event granted.  However we also had very exceptional snow events in both 2009 and in 2010. In December 2010 it was so cold in mid December that the snow did not melt for many days. Where I live we had no such snow events for more than a decade before 2009, so it could be argued that snow events are becoming more common, and not less. The 80's had some good cold spells, but the 70's were very poor indeed (except Fed 78), I guess thou that's just the weather being the weather when you live in a Temperate Maritime Climate. One thing for sure, in my opinion, is that snow events are not becoming less common, certainly not in my lifetime, they are just continue to be as varied as they have ever been!

 Currently it looks like we are going to get some colder shots as we head into march, but there is still plenty of time for something more severe to develope, and I would not be very surprised if it does!    

Edited February 19, 2017 by JBMWeatherForever

[Weather-history]

7 hours ago, damianslaw said:

I was meant to say winter 91/92 which was a predominantly anticyclonic winter with well below average rainfall. Very very comparable to this winter more so than 05/06 in the NW especially.

This winter is snowier than that winter at least around and more generally in the south and that is saying something, There was hardly any snow that winter, wet snow mid February 1992 and that was that. There was  a couple brief wintry episodes in the spring. Before 2013-14, it was the most snowless winter I've experienced.

Edited February 19, 2017 by Weather-history