Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17

[reef]

49 minutes ago, 4wd said:

Those seem strange comments when I suspect winter will be near average - not mild or only a little above norm.
I think we only had a handful of 'mild' days around 10C here.

December was more than 1C above average (some places by a lot more, it was 1.6C above here for example), February is looking like following in its footsteps and January was average or above average outside of south-eastern England.

Winter overall will likely be above average for most.

[Summer of 95]

If a warm September means a warm winter, it should logically follow that a cold March means a cold summer. But it doesn't! March 2013, 2006, 1996, 1995 were all on the cold side but none led into a cold summer- in fact quite the opposite. While the very warm March 2012 preceded a terrible cold, wet summer.

Maybe this year will break the "June is crap when the year ends in 7" pattern.

[sundog]

18 minutes ago, Summer of 95 said:

If a warm September means a warm winter, it should logically follow that a cold March means a cold summer. But it doesn't! March 2013, 2006, 1996, 1995 were all on the cold side but none led into a cold summer- in fact quite the opposite. While the very warm March 2012 preceded a terrible cold, wet summer.

Maybe this year will break the "June is crap when the year ends in 7" pattern.

whats march got to do with sept though???? 

[Weather-history]

1 hour ago, sundog said:

whats march got to do with sept though???? 

March would be the summer equivalent to the "Warm September favours a mild winter"

Why would a specific 30 day period in the earth's orbit have an effect on a specific 91 day period in the earth's orbit of which there are 61 days between the two periods? 

Forget the months, they are man made creations, the above description is what actually it is.

 

Edited February 15, 2017 by Weather-history

[Summer of 95]

59 minutes ago, sundog said:

whats march got to do with sept though???? 

If a warm September (the first month of autumn) makes the coming winter mild, it follows that the opposite (March, the first month of spring, being cold) would impact the "opposite" season, summer. It's just symmetry.

[sundog]

58 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

March would be the summer equivalent to the "Warm September favours a mild winter"

Why would a specific 30 day period in the earth's orbit have an effect on a specific 91 day period in the earth's orbit of which there are 61 days between the two periods? 

Forget the months, they are man made creations, the above description is what actually it is. i 

 

Yes i understood what summer of 95 meant,but its stlll nothing thing to do with sept. Im only talking about sept and a warm one at that as normally i would agree that why should a 30 day period have any effect weeks down the line. But imo a warm sept for whatever reason does seem to be a sign of a crap winter at least in more recent times.

In my head by the end of last sept i had already pretty much written off this winter however i got reeled in by the hype later in the autumn and indeed there was positive signs at that point of perhaps an interesting winter. But i should have gone with my earlier thoughts and if i had i might have saved myself being more frustrated then usual this winter given the positive signs in oct/nov.

[North-Easterly Blast]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

March would be the summer equivalent to the "Warm September favours a mild winter"

Why would a specific 30 day period in the earth's orbit have an effect on a specific 91 day period in the earth's orbit of which there are 61 days between the two periods? 

Forget the months, they are man made creations, the above description is what actually it is.

 

 

1 hour ago, Summer of 95 said:

If a warm September (the first month of autumn) makes the coming winter mild, it follows that the opposite (March, the first month of spring, being cold) would impact the "opposite" season, summer. It's just symmetry.

I find it difficult to see that there is any link between the type of March and the type of summer we get to follow - I do not see any evidence to suggest that there is.  Many people said a number of years back that a warm dry October increases the chance of a colder than average winter - yes I admit that there have been some good examples but I do not see that there is a strong correlation.  Although some may question why a specific 30 day calendar month of British Weather would set trends for the following few months, and even I do.  Despite this question, it is still the main trend in the British Weather system that I see evidence for; is that there is a bit of a link between a warm September increasing the chance of the following winter being milder than average, and evidence shows that winter rarely is a cold one after a warm September.  Although I see the warm September correlation in that it is more likely to be followed by milder conditions during the winter, strangely I do not see that there is evidence to suggest a particular type of winter is more likely after a cool or even average September. 

Winter 2016-17 highly likely now puts the theory of the warm September increasing the chance of a milder than average winter to follow to the test yet again, like many years in the UK since the mid 1990s have positively tested this theory.

[North-Easterly Blast]

2 hours ago, Summer of 95 said:

If a warm September means a warm winter, it should logically follow that a cold March means a cold summer. But it doesn't! March 2013, 2006, 1996, 1995 were all on the cold side but none led into a cold summer- in fact quite the opposite. While the very warm March 2012 preceded a terrible cold, wet summer.

Maybe this year will break the "June is crap when the year ends in 7" pattern.

Summer 2012 wasn't that particularly cool, it had a CET of 15.2, which is slightly below average although not especially cool for an overall summer CET.  The point that really stands out about summer 2012 is that it was remarkable for persistent rainfall especially in June and July, with August not significantly drier, although it was above average for the CET.  Summer 2011 was cooler overall than summer 2012, with a CET of 14.8, and June, July and August that year were all below average.

[sundog]

I think its come to the stage that when forecasting a winter  that if there has been a warm sept before it then it should be seriously given thought to be used with teleconnections etc.

Edited February 15, 2017 by sundog

[North-Easterly Blast]

3 hours ago, Summer of 95 said:

If a warm September means a warm winter, it should logically follow that a cold March means a cold summer. But it doesn't! March 2013, 2006, 1996, 1995 were all on the cold side but none led into a cold summer- in fact quite the opposite. While the very warm March 2012 preceded a terrible cold, wet summer.

Maybe this year will break the "June is crap when the year ends in 7" pattern.

Summer 1996 wasn't a particularly warm summer, it had a CET of 15.8, which is slightly above average, although not especially warm.  The thresholds I would say is that I would call a summer with an overall CET of 16.0 or greater a warm one, and I would call a summer with a CET of less than 15.0 a cool one.  In recent years I would call the summers of 2013 and 2016 warm, and summer 2011 I would call cool.

[Summer of 95]

11 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Summer 2012 wasn't that particularly cool, it had a CET of 15.2, which is slightly below average although not especially cool for an overall summer CET.  The point that really stands out about summer 2012 is that it was remarkable for persistent rainfall especially in June and July, with August not significantly drier, although it was above average for the CET.  Summer 2011 was cooler overall than summer 2012, with a CET of 14.8, and June, July and August that year were all below average.

That is a fair point- 2012 is always remembered as a lousy summer, but a look at the stats reveals 2011 was up there with the worst as well. 2011, because it didn't have any very wet months or notable flooding episodes, doesn't usually get mentioned in the same breath as 2012, 2007, even 2008. It was just very persistently cool and dull; day after day of 18C and cloudy, but often dry. Perhaps the widespread warmth/sunshine in late September, October and in some places April in 2011 makes people forget how bad the actual summer was as well. March 2011 I don't remember much about compared to 2012, but I don't think it was particularly cold.

 

[sorepaw1]

I'd say winter is dead and burried now imo.

Let's look forward to spring and summer and some nice March southerly air and a scorching summer . So close this winter but yet so far oh well. 

I wonder if B&Q will refund my snow shovel as not as described. 

[NorthYorksWeather]

11 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

I'd say winter is dead and burried now imo.

Let's look forward to spring and summer and some nice March southerly air and a scorching summer . So close this winter but yet so far oh well. 

I wonder if B&Q will refund my snow shovel as not as described. 

Hopefully not, but nothing seems to be going our coldies way this winter.

November was a bit of false hope, 1.8c below average with plenty of frost and some early snowfall for some, especially upland areas.

December was MEH, far less frost than November and hardly a sniff at snow. 1.8c above average.

January by far the best winter month so far however it wasn't exactly anything special. 0.3c below average with 14 frosts and 2cm of snow. Also managed the first ice day since 2013.

Feb so far is looking to finish above average, only 2 frosts so far which is shocking, during the "colder spell" last week our lowest temp was 0.9c.

The fact people were flocking to 400m asl in the North York Moors to see 5cm of snow at the weekend shows how snowstarved many lowland folk are.

Not throwing in the towel just yet, snow fell here on the 26th of April last year.

[Summer Sun]

Next week and probably the rest of the month

Occasional wetter days
Drier and brighter in between
Temperatures trending at or above average
More signs of spring

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38988080

[Summer Sun]

 

[sundog]

Looks like this winter is all over bar the bs.

Another winter for the tip.

 

[Peter H]

Winter 2016/17 pretty much done and dusted now. No sign of anything remotely cold for the next week and beyond, so that's it for another year.

Overall another mild, snowless, and frost free winter, yet again. December in particular was very mild.

Apart from the odd set up in March 2013 (low lying areas around here had no snow) it's the 6th one in a row like this. We haven't had any appreciable lying snow in this street since December 2010. That'll be seven years now. I think the UK climate has definitely changed.

The BBC on Monday evening did say something about another blocked pattern and colder weather developing in the last week of February, but that's gone now. Even the Met. Office has given up on it.

So definitely not a winter with "a cold core" as The Weather Outlook claimed in their winter forecast back at the end of November.

I hate winters like this, but sadly they've become the norm.
 

Edited February 16, 2017 by Peter H

[iapennell]

On 2/14/2017 at 23:09, North-Easterly Blast said:

Re September 1978, it had a CET of 14.2, which although warmer than average, is not extraordinarily so.  The same was true of September 2009 (CET similar to 1978 and was followed by a cold winter).  The point that I am making is that the September and following winter theory appears to only work one way - whilst I do not see a correlation between a cool or even average September and the type of winter that follows; much warmer than average weather in September is more likely to be followed by milder conditions during the winter, and looking at records it is very rare to get a colder than average winter after a warm September.  I think the warm September = above average winter theory is one of the clearest patterns and trends in the British climate, especially in recent years and was a common feature even further back.

@North-Easterly Blast; Most of the time, I would say you are right- in some recent years in particular both September and October have been unusually warm- and the following winter has tended to be mild. Certain large-scale patterns such as unusual warmth in the NE Atlantic, reduced Arctic sea-ice extent for the time of year and high sunspot activity combine to ensure both the autumn months and the winter following are warmer than usual. Warmth in September and October, say as a result of southerly winds, will also keep sea-surface temperatures around Britain warm and (because of the large specific heat capacity of large bodies of water) the warmth of surrounding seas is likely then to persist into the winter- helping to keep temperatures mild. A very warm September in the mix (you mention CET's above 16C) will ensure more latent warmth in surrounding seas which should help to keep the coming winter milder.

But there are still exceptions; it depends what is causing the warm September. If sea-surface temperatures remain below normal and Arctic sea-ice cover is close to or above the seasonal norm at the same time as warm southerlies bring September warmth this is much less likely to lead to a mild winter because that is more likely to be dictated by the fundamentals of the Circumpolar Vortex (which is affected by sea-surface temperature anomalies out west- cold sea-surface temperatures would likely persist and encourage a more southerly path of the jet-stream and greater exposure of Britain to cold polar air in the winter months). The weather-patterns bringing September warmth is unlikely to persist and (even if that were to happen) the same pattern that brings very warm sunny weather in September or even early October can bring about extensive frost and fog in January (an example would be a south-easterly airstream associated with a European high-pressure zone). Continental Europe under clear skies and high-pressure is usually warm in September but in December and January the same high-pressure would result in hard frosts and freezing fog over the continent- and which are wafted in the direction of Britain by south-easterly winds blowing around such a high-pressure area.

Excessive warmth in early autumn is certainly one indicator of the winter to follow, but I would not rely heavily on it to make predictions as to the coming winter. Late September and October 2011 was unusually warm (temperatures reached record levels on 1st October that year) and although the winter of 2011/12 was a little milder than usual across the country on the whole, much of the country (England and Wales in particular) had an exceptionally cold fortnight from 29th January through 11th February 2012 with temperatures below -10C in places and little birds freezing to death. September and early October 1985 was unusually warm, especially across England and Wales (anomaly about 2C)  with a great deal of Indian Summer weather yet late December 1985, January and February 1986 were bitterly cold with hard frosts and snowfalls (February 1986 had a CET of -1C). Sea surface temperatures in autumn 1985 were cooler than normal around the UK after the cold 1984/85 winter (March 1985 was also very cold) and a cool summer that year, Arctic sea-ice extent was high and 1985 was near solar minima- all of which were more profound influences on the ensuing winter.

 

[Don]

3 hours ago, sundog said:

Looks like this winter is all over bar the bs.

Another winter for the tip.

 

Going abroad next winter for some 'proper cold'.  Fed up with disappointment here.

[North-Easterly Blast]

8 minutes ago, iapennell said:

@North-Easterly Blast;  September and early October 1985 was unusually warm, especially across England and Wales (anomaly about 2C) 

 

September 1985 had a CET of 14.6, which is about 1*C above average, but nowhere near as warm as Sept 2016.  October 1985 after an exceptionally warm start, became fairly average for the rest of the month, and it finished with a CET of 11.0, which is still less than 1*C above average.

Edited February 16, 2017 by North-Easterly Blast

[iapennell]

12 minutes ago, Don said:

Going abroad next winter for some 'proper cold'.  Fed up with disappointment here.

@Don, I am off to Churchill (Canada) for eleven days from tomorrow to get my hard frost and snow fix. Expecting it to be good!

[Don]

2 minutes ago, iapennell said:

@Don, I am off to Churchill (Canada) for eleven days from tomorrow to get my hard frost and snow fix. Expecting it to be good!

Excellent.  You shouldn't be disappointed!

[Summer Sun]

End of next week

Spells of rain
Windy
Colder

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38997665

[damianslaw]

There is a saying winter's back typically breaks middle of February... mmm there hasn't been much winter to talk about this year (admittedly latter part of Jan and last week were quite cold but very little snow).

Thoughts are now turning to spring, but I never discount the likelihood of snowy very cold conditions until around mid March, and even after then, a cold northerly blast should never be discounted into well into May..indeed they have a habit of occuring more so during spring than winter.

Alas, whilst the immediate outlook looks very mild, I wouldn't be surprised to see our first snow cover of the season occur out of the winter months, thanks to an arctic incursion, signs are we may see such weather first part of March.

Given we've now had 4 mostly snowless and mild/very mild winters in a row, I may have to book myself a winter snow/cold holiday next year, not sure I can stomach another one, surely winter 17/18 will deliver at least a few snowy cold days close to freezing, not too much to ask is it.

It will be interesting to note average temps over European countries this winter, most I suspect will have recorded a below average one, those in the SE notably below, with the UK and Scandi shining above average. I think the same occured in winter 01/02 another one, which saw much mid lattitude blocking and snow and cold reserved for SE quarter of the continent.

Edited February 16, 2017 by damianslaw

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, damianslaw said:

There is a saying winter's back typically breaks middle of February... mmm there hasn't been much winter to talk about this year (admittedly latter part of Jan and last week were quite cold but very little snow).

Thoughts are now turning to spring, but I never discount the likelihood of snowy very cold conditions until around mid March, and even after then, a cold northerly blast should never be discounted into well into May..indeed they have a habit of occuring more so during spring than winter.

Alas, whilst the immediate outlook looks very mild, I wouldn't be surprised to see our first snow cover of the season occur out of the winter months, thanks to an arctic incursion, signs are we may see such weather first part of March.

Given we've now had 4 mostly snowless and mild/very mild winters in a row, I may have to book myself a winter snow/cold holiday next year, not sure I can stomach another one, surely winter 17/18 will deliver at least a few snowy cold days close to freezing, not too much to ask is it.

You not had any snow Damian? cor didn't think things were that bad,