Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17

[Summer Sun]

Some spring-like weather on the way next week? though a risk of frost and fog overnight

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38924871

[Summer Sun]

 

[geordiekev]

11 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

That's quite pleasing to the ear, because last time I recall IF making such a bold warm winter statement On New Years Day 16 based on EC monthly , the Med range models flipped 2 days later to cold and blocked. Reverse psychology hopefully 

Edited February 10, 2017 by geordiekev

[Cheshire Freeze]

10 minutes ago, geordiekev said:

That's quite pleasing to the ear, because last time I recall IF making such a bold warm winter statement On New Years Day 16 based on EC monthly , the Med range models flipped 2 days later to cold and blocked. Reverse psychology hopefully 

Was actually just thinking the exact same thing!

[Summer Sun]

Ian F

Cold conditions this weekend give way to less cold/ultimately milder weather through next week; a 60% chance more mobile set-up likely for a while by end next week, but more blocked conditions then slightly favoured to see-out the rest of Feb more blocked conditions then slightly favored to see out the rest of Feb with temperatures overall perhaps slightly below avg & generally quieter/drier conditions, suggest UKMO. By late Feb a strong signal for stratospheric warming, but no sign in GloSea that it will influence troposphere & thus of little value to provide predictions on any (if any) effect on UK weather. Early March looking milder/wetter, but tentative signal

Edited February 10, 2017 by Summer Sun

[law of averages]

1 hour ago, Froze were the Days said:

Yep totally agree, I've been keeping winter records since 1983 and take away a period 09-10, Dec 10 and periods 2012-13 the winters have been poor since the late 90's and certainly makes you wonder if this is GW now taking effect.

What ever happened to fairly frequent Pm shots or the odd Am outbreak (1 day this winter if I'm not mistaken largely effecting Scotland) and as for the debacle of trying to get a 'proper' easterly in place, all I can clutch at is the solar minimum in the coming winters and if we see a continuation of these type winters then god help us. Another disappointing episode looks to pass us by.

Poorly orientated Scandy high looks like giving way early next week to milder south easterlies or southerlies but please no more of this surface cold.

How can it be GW??...when for the last few weeks/months, vast majority of EUROPE...even ASIA...and at less frequent times ( for a change the ) USA has been in a deep...even brutal cold!! We are in a unique position in the north Atlantic that's in the path of the jet stream, which dictates for at least the best part of our weather!!

It as without question, to me anyway...this winter as been cold, even very cold ( like yesterday and today ) at times!! And as felt like a 70's winter, as in cold n dry...90% including me want SNOW and the holy grail winter, like 47, 63, 78 and Dec 2010...but for me it's patterns and ONE will happen sooner or later... that's without question!!

Before 2007, a professor said on TV programme...would the uk/western Europe ever see SNOW again...( what an idiot ) we've had more in the last 10yrs...than in the 25/30yrs before 2007...I'm no were near as knowledgeable as the TAMARA's, STE MURR's, TEITS, GP and BB62/63 in this forum world ( 1% I'd say, if that...I mean me  ) but from what weather history we have to read about, it's patterns all the way...there were mild, very mild, cold, very cold, xtreme heat to brutal cold...so they went through the same...even the above winters had mild or mildish winters before and after...so one will happen, it's the WHEN!! we can't PREDICT

No matter the weather, it's good reading and learning on here...and no one including the professionals...NO WHAT'S ON THE HORIZON!! Especially this winter 

Edited February 10, 2017 by law of averages

[Nouska]

1 hour ago, Froze were the Days said:

Yep totally agree, I've been keeping winter records since 1983 and take away a period 09-10, Dec 10 and periods 2012-13 the winters have been poor since the late 90's and certainly makes you wonder if this is GW now taking effect.

There is a Climate Science forum on here - crying out for some interesting debate from new contributors - this is not the place for it, but just regarding the part of your post I have highlighted.

http://www.clim-past-discuss.net/cp-2017-8/cp-2017-8.pdf

@sebastiaan1973

Low solar influence on European winter temps reanalysed over a 350 year time span - only 10% fit into that category!

There's no reason to suppose one of your good winters can not be replicated in the not too distant future since those occurred during and just after last minimum - another minimum fast approaching.

Edited February 10, 2017 by Nouska

[Dean E]

1 hour ago, Froze were the Days said:

Yep totally agree, I've been keeping winter records since 1983 and take away a period 09-10, Dec 10 and periods 2012-13 the winters have been poor since the late 90's and certainly makes you wonder if this is GW now taking effect.

What ever happened to fairly frequent Pm shots or the odd Am outbreak (1 day this winter if I'm not mistaken largely effecting Scotland) and as for the debacle of trying to get a 'proper' easterly in place, all I can clutch at is the solar minimum in the coming winters and if we see a continuation of these type winters then god help us. Another disappointing episode looks to pass us by.

Poorly orientated Scandy high looks like giving way early next week to milder south easterlies or southerlies but please no more of this surface cold.

 

34 minutes ago, Law of averages!! said:

How can it be GW??...when for the last few weeks/months, vast majority of EUROPE...even ASIA...and at less frequent times ( for a change the ) USA has been in a deep...even brutal cold!! We are in a unique position in the north Atlantic that's in the path of the jet stream, which dictates for at least the best part of our weather!!

It as without question, to me anyway...this winter as been cold, even very cold ( like yesterday and today ) at times!! And as felt like a 70's winter, as in cold n dry...90% including me want SNOW and the holy grail winter, like 47, 63, 78 and Dec 2010...but for me it's patterns and ONE will happen sooner or later... that's without question!!

Before 2007, a professor said on TV programme...would the uk/western Europe ever see SNOW again...( what an idiot ) we've had more in the last 10yrs...than in the 25/30yrs before 2007...I'm no were near as knowledgeable as the TAMARA's, STE MURR's, TEITS, GP and BB62/63 in this forum world ( 1% I'd say, if that...I mean me  ) but from what weather history we have to read about, it's patterns all the way...there were mild, very mild, cold, very cold, xtreme heat to brutal cold...so they went through the same...even the above winters had mild or mildish winters before and after...so one will happen, it's the WHEN!! we can't PREDICT

No matter the weather, it's good reading and learning on here...and no one including the professionals...NO WHAT'S ON THE HORIZON!! Especially this winter 

While I don't believe that Global warming is having effect right now FWTD, I do support your evidence that winters have in fact changed since the late 1990s and especially so in the 2000's time frame. I am currently studying Geography and Environmental Science in my third year with a research topic based on the changing climate of the UK over the time period you are alluding to. While I have spent a lot of time researching UK winters post 1960's during the time to get a mean of winter extremes. While we have seen a decline in cold winter extremes since the 1990s, there has been an increase in blocking patterns around Scandinavia and to a more recent extent over Central Europe. While this hasn't be uncommon in the past, the duration of such blocks have increased during the past 5 or so years. What is also noteworthy is that over the past 3 winters when blocking has been present over Scandinavia, here in the UK, winter has been rather 'stagnant' or 'stuck in the middle of nothing'. Hopefully further understandings of this can help us better predict such mediocre events.

With regards to the Polar maritime shots of cold, the Jet stream has also been another feature that appears to have been effected. We are no longer seeing a full blown jet passing between Iceland and Northern Scotland (Mean average) over the last few winters. The Jet has been more meandering, with many ridges and troughs forming, allowing more blocked patterns to exist and for a longer duration. 

This brings me to Law's post about Europe and Asia's winter. With Europe, I'm guessing you are referring to Eastern and South Eastern Europe, where this winter has been rather extreme at times, especially so post Christmas and into the New year. However, its worth noting that Northern Europe has been very close to average overall, with Sweden and Norway actually having above average temperatures at times. They have just been in the right place at the right time in regards to this Winters set up's. These areas have had a memorable winter for sure. Global warming has been said to shift and disrupt weather patterns across the world, we does including colder patterns become more likely in areas that are different climatically currently.

To bring all of that together, we are seeing a more blocked pattern right across Europe and at times, these are persisting much longer than previous events. The Jet has been all over the place this winter, with many areas to explore into why this is the case. This winter has been poor for cold outlooks, however, its should be concluded upon as important purely because it's not been the most predictable winter either. We've had many meteorological events, such as SSW's for example and we have seen effects down to the surface, with the climate responding. Just no the way most of us wanted!  

 

PS sorry MODs, I know this isn't model output related as such, but just felt we needed some light on this!

 

Edited February 10, 2017 by Dean E

[Devonshire]

18 minutes ago, Dean E said:

with Sweden and Norway actually having above average temperatures at times. 

Sorry, I am going to have to 'call' you on this, (especially as it may be of use in your 3rd year project ) - the nature of statistics includes the very high likelihood (i.e., near-certainty) that for any significant period there will be above as well as below average readings! I am sure I might make this model-related, let's see: yes, when considering the model output for a given run, notice that the mean temperature for ... (goes off to make a cup of tea) ...

[Dean E]

16 minutes ago, Devonshire said:

Sorry, I am going to have to 'call' you on this, (especially as it may be of use in your 3rd year project ) - the nature of statistics includes the very high likelihood (i.e., near-certainty) that for any significant period there will be above as well as below average readings! I am sure I might make this model-related, let's see: yes, when considering the model output for a given run, notice that the mean temperature for ... (goes off to make a cup of tea) ...

Thanks for feedback, and yes I do agree with what you wrote. I was just pointing out that I was considering Europe as a whole, rather than SE Europe for example, but thought it was worth noting the differences in other areas of the continent 

[law of averages]

38 minutes ago, Dean E said:

 

While I don't believe that Global warming is having effect right now FWTD, I do support your evidence that winters have in fact changed since the late 1990s and especially so in the 2000's time frame. I am currently studying Geography and Environmental Science in my third year with a research topic based on the changing climate of the UK over the time period you are alluding to. While I have spent a lot of time researching UK winters post 1960's during the time to get a mean of winter extremes. While we have seen a decline in cold winter extremes since the 1990s, there has been an increase in blocking patterns around Scandinavia and to a more recent extent over Central Europe. While this hasn't be uncommon in the past, the duration of such blocks have increased during the past 5 or so years. What is also noteworthy is that over the past 3 winters when blocking has been present over Scandinavia, here in the UK, winter has been rather 'stagnant' or 'stuck in the middle of nothing'. Hopefully further understandings of this can help us better predict such mediocre events.

With regards to the Polar maritime shots of cold, the Jet stream has also been another feature that appears to have been effected. We are no longer seeing a full blown jet passing between Iceland and Northern Scotland (Mean average) over the last few winters. The Jet has been more meandering, with many ridges and troughs forming, allowing more blocked patterns to exist and for a longer duration. 

This brings me to Law's post about Europe and Asia's winter. With Europe, I'm guessing you are referring to Eastern and South Eastern Europe, where this winter has been rather extreme at times, especially so post Christmas and into the New year. However, its worth noting that Northern Europe has been very close to average overall, with Sweden and Norway actually having above average temperatures at times. They have just been in the right place at the right time in regards to this Winters set up's. These areas have had a memorable winter for sure. Global warming has been said to shift and disrupt weather patterns across the world, we does including colder patterns become more likely in areas that are different climatically currently.

To bring all of that together, we are seeing a more blocked pattern right across Europe and at times, these are persisting much longer than previous events. The Jet has been all over the place this winter, with many areas to explore into why this is the case. This winter has been poor for cold outlooks, however, its should be concluded upon as important purely because it's not been the most predictable winter either. We've had many meteorological events, such as SSW's for example and we have seen effects down to the surface, with the climate responding. Just no the way most of us wanted!  

 

PS sorry MODs, I know this isn't model output related as such, but just felt we needed some light on this!

 

Sorry I won't post anymore after this one about this subject...in terms of yrs, length of?? I'm referring to hundreds of yrs...I can't remember if it's the weather history here on netweather or else were!! But it went back to the 1600's and there is without doubt patterns, for all to see...and they were coming out of the mini ice age effect!! The volcano that gave the yr, without a summer...GLOBALLY and DICKEN'S winters weren't all the christmas postcard effect, he as in his novels but from what he remembered as a child...from what I've read about him!! That wasn't global warming

[cheeky_monkey]

47 minutes ago, Law of averages!! said:

Sorry I won't post anymore after this one about this subject...in terms of yrs, length of?? I'm referring to hundreds of yrs...I can't remember if it's the weather history here on netweather or else were!! But it went back to the 1600's and there is without doubt patterns, for all to see...and they were coming out of the mini ice age effect!! The volcano that gave the yr, without a summer...GLOBALLY and DICKEN'S winters weren't all the christmas postcard effect, he as in his novels but from what he remembered as a child...from what I've read about him!! That wasn't global warming

Here is an easy fact to digest..globally there has not been a colder than average year since 1985..if you use the 1961-90 value i think?..prior to that they were pretty common...if you back even further say 100 years virtually every year was colder than the 1961-90 average 

[law of averages]

1 hour ago, cheeky_monkey said:

Here is an easy fact to digest..globally there has not been a colder than average year since 1985..if you use the 1961-90 value i think?..prior to that they were pretty common...if you back even further say 100 years virtually every year was colder than the 1961-90 average 

Well I wouldn't argue with that, but if you read the summaries and that's all they are.. from what you can read about them, they are very similar patterns what we've had over the last 100yrs or more...a lot of mild winters with rain, cold n dry winters etc...even gaps of 20yrs plus of no snow, so I can only see patterns from what I've read...47 to 63 is 16yrs, 63 to 78 is 15 yrs... I was 5 in 1970 and remember my 1st snow, I'm not saying the 5 previous didn't get snow but I remember the ones after being cold n dry with little snow till 78...I could be proved wrong on this but for the area I live that cold be right...I've wrote somewhere else about this and 1900ish to 1940ish was warming cycle, 1940ish to 1980ish was a cooling cycle 1980ish to 2020ish warming cycle...so if they're not patterns, well I'm a monkies uncle and 40 to 80 would be correct for at least 3 key winters...even Hitler asked his key weather forecasters about RUSSIAN MILD WINTERS and looked what happened there ( watched a programme about that, but can't remember how long ago )... all i can say whether people agree or not its there for all to see n read for unique part of Europe....only time will tell if we get the holy grail of winters but aren't we supposed to be going into a cooling cycle, regards solar activity??

Ps...1976 was hottest and longest summer I remember 

 

Edited February 10, 2017 by law of averages

[Summer Sun]

Becoming milder

Turning a bit more unsettled or remaining dry longer term?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38936290

[Wildswimmer Pete]

6 hours ago, Law of averages!! said:

..GLOBALLY and DICKEN'S winters weren't all the christmas postcard effect, he as in his novels but from what he remembered as a child...from what I've read about him!! That wasn't global warming

Dickensian winters are reckoned to have been influenced (and inspired) by the early 1800s Dalton Minimum.  Some hold that we are currently entering a new Grand Minimum as solar activity appears to be ratcheting down every cycle. 

[Weather-history]

On 05/10/2016 at 17:26, Summer Sun said:

Accuweather winter forecast

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-2016-2017-stormy-uk-mild-wet-france-germany/60378723

That forecast is getting worse and worse by the day

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/uk-winter-forecast-damaging-windstorms-to-lash-hard-hit-areas-northern-england/60531022

If you read the UK part of that forecast

"AccuWeather forecasters are calling for 15-18 named storms between October 2016 and April 2017; however, the most active period will occur from December to February."

What are we up to now? Still C, Doris was named by the media and even if you take into account a couple of lows that probably should have been named, I can't see how we are going to get up to O to S, in the storm naming system. In any case, they emphasised the winter period as being the most active and we are half way through February more or less.

Edited February 11, 2017 by Weather-history

[Summer Sun]

 

[Summer Sun]

End of the week

Milder
Isolated night frosts
Breezy

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38944224

[Don]

6 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Boo!!

[lassie23]

I'm expecting a late potent cold snap this winter which will deliver the highest snowfall, to coincide with the so far successful October Fog Index.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Yes, holiday week varies, ours is 20th to 24th

[Summer Sun]

6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Yes, holiday week varies, ours is 20th to 24th

Yup very confusing in this area Darlo and the Boro are 20th to 24th yet Stockton is the 13th to 17th

[Summer Sun]

The UK's only remaining snow warning

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=7&lon=-2.45&lat=54.13&fcTime=1486771200&regionName=uk

Edited February 11, 2017 by Summer Sun

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Highest levels SS, pennines, Staffs moors, Peaks

[Summer Sun]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Highest levels SS, pennines, Staffs moors, Peaks

Yup

Slushy stuff below 150m

2-5cm above 250m

Possibly 10-15cm above 350m