Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17

[SMU]

1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

This is from 2014, so it can't be that rare?

Note: I didn't put the circle on it.

Hi Mapanz

It is rare - I went through every October since 1954 on the NOAA website & theres probably less that 5 occasions where the -AO went below -3..

sadly their daily data stops in 2013 so I dont know about 2014

it does however have the whole month on there & it netted out @ -1.1 which isnt very significant- A bit like the current position, its only perhaps significant if its sustainable...

 

s

Edited October 3, 2016 by Steve Murr

[Mapantz]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Hi Mapanz

It is rare - I went through every October since 1954 on the NOAA website & theres probably less that 5 occasions where the -AO went below -3..

sadly their daily data stops in 2013 so I dont know about 2014

it does however have the whole month on there & it netted out @ -1.1 which isnt very significant- A bit like the current position, its only perhaps significant if its sustainable...

 

s

I get this feeling that something akin to 2010 might be lurking, but starting slightly earlier. In some respects, I hope not, as after December, the rest of Winter was poor for cold here. I certainly share my sentiments with many others on here though, an extremely interesting period re all the background signals. Looking forward to seeing how it all pans out!

[Walsall Wood Snow]

2 hours ago, Optimus Prime said:

1966/1967 was a mild winter and actually the mildest of the 60's (1c above)

1956/1957 was an even milder winter, very mid (1.5c above)

1936/1937 was also very mild (+1.4c) part of the famous mild winters of the 30's

1926/1927 was average (+0.2c above)

1916/1917 was very cold (-2.4c below)

1906/1907 was cold (-1.0c below)

I don't think there's that much to go on.

Well ok I guess the 6/7 cold Winter idea doesn't stand up much. Never mind. But I did admit it can't always work being as Winter 2006/07 was mild. Just another case of clutching at straws I guess .

[summer blizzard]

11 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Hi Mapanz

It is rare - I went through every October since 1954 on the NOAA website & theres probably less that 5 occasions where the -AO went below -3..

sadly their daily data stops in 2013 so I dont know about 2014

it does however have the whole month on there & it netted out @ -1.1 which isnt very significant- A bit like the current position, its only perhaps significant if its sustainable...

 

s

I decided to look at October's which produced a monthly AO value of -1 or below to see what the CET did the following winters and whether we had any anomolous months (1C departure from average).

To start with then there were a total of 11 October's (since 1950) so a total of 33 potential winter months. 

Number of months with a CET of 3.4C or below: 9

Number of months with a CET of 5.4C or above: 10

So we have two things to takeaway from this..

1) A -AO October does not guarantee no extreme warmth come winter

2) A -AO October does seem to signify a high probability that an anomalous month will occur with more than 50% of the following winter months seeing some kind of large anomaly.

[Gael_Force]

25 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

I decided to look at October's which produced a monthly AO value of -1 or below to see what the CET did the following winters and whether we had any anomolous months (1C departure from average).

To start with then there were a total of 11 October's (since 1950) so a total of 33 potential winter months. 

Number of months with a CET of 3.4C or below: 9

Number of months with a CET of 5.4C or above: 10

So we have two things to takeaway from this..

1) A -AO October does not guarantee no extreme warmth come winter

2) A -AO October does seem to signify a high probability that an anomalous month will occur with more than 50% of the following winter months seeing some kind of large anomaly.

Did you look at the ENSO, solar and QBO phasing?

[summer blizzard]

8 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

Did you look at the ENSO, solar and QBO phasing?

The ENSO state (neutral/weak Nina) has so many analogues that only a small proportion are anomalous. 

Solar flux has no strong correlation in the short term (though it does over extended periods).

QBO is not behaving as normal so i'm somewhat ignoring that for now. 

 

[cheeky_monkey]

I'm hoping for some semblance of sanity on this forum during the winter months..however as usual no doubt it will shortly descend into the usual chaos of dummy spitting, arm waving, finger pointing and general crying/bellyaching about everything and everyone

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

11 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

I'm hoping for some semblance of sanity on this forum during the winter months..however as usual no doubt it will shortly descend into the usual chaos of dummy spitting, arm waving, finger pointing and general crying/bellyaching about everything and everyone

 

 

The best bit about winter is all the toy throwing in the mod thread. 

Hoping for a cold and snowy winter. If not cold and snowy then stormy will do. Anything but settled. 

Edited October 4, 2016 by No Balls Like Snow Balls

[summer blizzard]

31 minutes ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

The best bit about winter is all the toy throwing in the mod thread. 

Hoping for a cold and snowy winter. If not cold and snowy then stormy will do. Anything but settled. 

God forbid you inform them that front approaching from the west won't produce snow south of Birmingham. I once made that mistake (i was of course correct) and was labbled illiterate, a mild fan, unable to read the models. 

[weirpig]

Just now, summer blizzard said:

God forbid you inform them that front approaching from the west won't produce snow south of Birmingham. I once made that mistake (i was of course correct) and was labbled illiterate, a mild fan, unable to read the models. 

Lol  yes  its amazing how time and time again Brum seems to be the snow dividing line.  bring on the madness 

[NeilN]

I've been in North Somerset four years this November, and have only seen snow during the first winter which lasted a few days in January 2013 and  the odd day between February and early April of that year. 

To call people mild lovers, just because a part of the country won't get snow is idiotic! I knew when we moved down here, we wouldn't see much with snow and I've accepted that. Where I am looking to move, I think it would lovely covered in snow (Mum lives in Pill, and I'm looking at moving close by). 

Edited October 4, 2016 by nn2013

[Sweatyman]

4 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Lol  yes  its amazing how time and time again Brum seems to be the snow dividing line.  bring on the madness 

Well we aren't north south East or west:-)

[weirpig]

f

Edited October 4, 2016 by weirpig
quote button

[summer blizzard]

2 minutes ago, nn2013 said:

I've been in North Somerset four years this November, and have only seen snow during the first winter which lasted a few days in January 2013 and  the odd day between February and early April of that year. 

To call people mild lovers, just because a part of the country won't get snow is idiotic! I knew when we moved down here, we wouldn't see much with snow and I've accepted that. Where I am looking to move, I think it would lovely covered in snow (Mum lives in Pill, and I'm looking at moving close by). 

I'm in Yorkshire so no problem on the snow front, i believe it was an insult to anybody who did not toe the 'uk will freeze' line.

[NeilN]

Just now, weirpig said:

You say that.  but i was classed as a northerner the other day .   The thought.

I'm actually from the Midlands myself - Birmingham man lived all over the place, but left in 2012 to start a new life with my family who had been down here for about 7/8 years prior. Have lost the accent a bit in four years, but people know I'm a Brummie lol. 

[MP-R]

2 minutes ago, nn2013 said:

I'm actually from the Midlands myself - Birmingham man lived all over the place, but left in 2012 to start a new life with my family who had been down here for about 7/8 years prior. Have lost the accent a bit in four years, but people know I'm a Brummie lol. 

I'm always amazed how much Brummies love Weston-super-Mare, or maybe it's the attraction of somewhere sort of coastal. Sadly, Weston rarely gets long-lasting lying snow. I live nearer the airport which is much better but the last few years really have been dire. I had to go to Burrington to see lying snow in January 2015! Sadly we were just west of the area of snow that crossed the country in January of this year around the 17th/18th.

[NeilN]

1 minute ago, MP-R said:

I'm always amazed how much Brummies love Weston-super-Mare, or maybe it's the attraction of somewhere sort of coastal. Sadly, Weston rarely gets long-lasting lying snow. I live nearer the airport which is much better but the last few years really have been dire. I had to go to Burrington to see lying snow in January 2015! Sadly we were just west of the area of snow that crossed the country in January of this year around the 17th/18th.

We have a sizeable contingent in Weston, but I think a lot of is the fact it is coastal. I don't want to to steer this topic into another discussion, but the town has gone downhill over the last four years I've been here. I am heading Portishead / Pill way, as my family moved up there and the job prospects are Bristol. Adding to that, I was widowed suddenly two years ago and I just want to move on with my life and look ahead to a better future. Yes, we were sooo unlucky that day. Felt so gutted. I believe even Pill didn't even get any. 

[weirpig]

3 minutes ago, MP-R said:

I'm always amazed how much Brummies love Weston-super-Mare, or maybe it's the attraction of somewhere sort of coastal. Sadly, Weston rarely gets long-lasting lying snow. I live nearer the airport which is much better but the last few years really have been dire. I had to go to Burrington to see lying snow in January 2015! Sadly we were just west of the area of snow that crossed the country in January of this year around the 17th/18th.

i think its because its the closest seaside town to here.  ive seen lying snow here for the past few years  altitude however plays a key role  anything over 500ft  seems to do ok.  however i agree the past few winter have been dire.

[MP-R]

8 minutes ago, nn2013 said:

We have a sizeable contingent in Weston, but I think a lot of is the fact it is coastal. I don't want to to steer this topic into another discussion, but the town has gone downhill over the last four years I've been here. I am heading Portishead / Pill way, as my family moved up there and the job prospects are Bristol. Adding to that, I was widowed suddenly two years ago and I just want to move on with my life and look ahead to a better future. Yes, we were sooo unlucky that day. Felt so gutted. I believe even Pill didn't even get any. 

Sorry to hear about your loss! I'm in the planning industry (don't worry, private sector, so I don't get to make any decisions) and am continuously disappointed with progress in Weston. All very well developing out the suburbs but the centre needs attention. Portishead, however, is lovely and very up and coming. Of course, about as good for snow as Weston is haha, but hey ho.

One thing you'll no doubt have realised is often this area gets interesting weather events when the rest of the country doesn't, and vice versa e.g. the 14th January 2015 snow showers. Fingers crossed for a better winter this year. Cold temperatures are never a problem here, just overlap with precipitation can be.

[MP-R]

8 minutes ago, weirpig said:

i think its because its the closest seaside town to here.  ive seen lying snow here for the past few years  altitude however plays a key role  anything over 500ft  seems to do ok.  however i agree the past few winter have been dire.

Boxing Day 2014 was a good example of it snowing in Birmingham but nowhere near cold enough just 100 miles down the road where we had 6C and rain haha.

[NeilN]

3 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Sorry to hear about your loss! I'm in the planning industry (don't worry, private sector, so I don't get to make any decisions) and am continuously disappointed with progress in Weston. All very well developing out the suburbs but the centre needs attention. Portishead, however, is lovely and very up and coming. Of course, about as good for snow as Weston is haha, but hey ho.

One thing you'll no doubt have realised is often this area gets interesting weather events when the rest of the country doesn't, and vice versa e.g. the 14th January 2015 snow showers. Fingers crossed for a better winter this year. Cold temperatures are never a problem here, just overlap with precipitation can be.

It's OK - Granted it all happened suddenly, and we were not prepared but the last two years have been a rebuilding process, and life will start to pick up again. I live in the centre of Weston, and I agree progress is way behind. Nobody wants to listen, and you tell people and they don't want to know. Where I live, has a crime rate that could make some areas of the Midlands wince! We have a lot of issues on the weekend with the drunks, police called to a block next door almost daily and it's unsafe. A few streets away we've had people beaten and kicked to death! 

 

I've noticed that myself - as mentioned in another post, it was snowing on Boxing Day 2014 in Brum, but being in Pill it was sunny all day and just bitterly cold! Not that any of us minded, but we did feel we were missing out. I've noticed it when we've been warm, some parts of the region have had it breezy and wet! My Mum up there had a rain one day a couple of weeks back, it was sunny all day in Weston! Strange how all maps out despite the closeness of an area. 

[cheese]

24 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

I'm in Yorkshire so no problem on the snow front, i believe it was an insult to anybody who did not toe the 'uk will freeze' line.

I think we are often lucky in this part of the world - usually south enough to benefit from heatwaves, and often in a good position to benefit from snow from most directions. We don't usually do terribly for thunderstorms either (though there are much better places further south and east).

Edited October 4, 2016 by cheese

[Seasonality]

1 hour ago, cheeky_monkey said:

I'm hoping for some semblance of sanity on this forum during the winter months..however as usual no doubt it will shortly descend into the usual chaos of dummy spitting, arm waving, finger pointing and general crying/bellyaching about everything and everyone

I've read the model thread in the past before taking the plunge and creating an account here. The worst posts tended to be illiterate as well as lacking in meteorological knowledge. It seems to be a playground for trolls.

That said, this is a brilliant forum and there are very knowledgable posters here from whom we can learn a lot. The ignore user function is handy so you can sort the wheat from the chaff. There are so many positives to netweather they outweigh the negative of the model forum silliness in winter IMHO.

 

[johnholmes]

19 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

I've read the model thread in the past before taking the plunge and creating an account here. The worst posts tended to be illiterate as well as lacking in meteorological knowledge. It seems to be a playground for trolls.

That said, this is a brilliant forum and there are very knowledgable posters here from whom we can learn a lot. The ignore user function is handy so you can sort the wheat from the chaff. There are so many positives to netweather they outweigh the negative of the model forum silliness in winter IMHO.

 

well said and welcome to the forum

 

[Nights King]

3 hours ago, MP-R said:

Boxing Day 2014 was a good example of it snowing in Birmingham but nowhere near cold enough just 100 miles down the road where we had 6C and rain haha.

To be fair higher hills of west country can have some of best snowfalls on good years and places in the north can do terribly. I think elevation is key for anywhere UK wide in winters with so much marginal stuff around. You only have to look at snow averages for coastal low Scottish areas to see they hardly get anything either.

I have seen many winters where bbc/meto have called midlands and south wales the dividing line between rain and snow only to wake up to a white landscape and not always just the high ground.