Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17

[cheese]

Snow here, but only light. No settling.

We've had an almost constant stream of precipitation from the North Sea over the past 48 hours so I imagine we'd have a decent amount of snow if it was a bit colder. Oh well.

Edited February 12, 2017 by cheese

[Summer Sun]

 

[Summer Sun]

The snow warning area from the met today looks pretty good

[Summer Sun]

Into next week (W/C 20th)

Milder
Isolated frosts
Driest in the south

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/38949808

[Snowyowl9]

-24c in stornaway with dewpoint of -28c a new record for the winter or a gag.

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

 

[ManiaMuse]

I've quite enjoyed the winter weather we've had so far, certainly hasn't been as awful as some in the model threads would like to portray. Ok we haven't had 8 feet of drifting snow, but for weather you can do stuff outside in it's been quite pleasant imo. Certainly for cycling my bike to work it has been far nicer than last year.

Positives:

+ Only one spell of extreme weather in my backyard (spawn of Angus/not-storm Barbara causing flash flooding around Greater Manchester)

+ No real stormy periods of note, even the named storms weren't up to that much.

+ Dry and no spells of continuous rain for a week

+ Hardly windy at all, in fact this breeze at the moment seems quite surprising

+ Reasonable amounts of sunshine, better than last year's eternal overcast at least

+ A few spells of more seasonal weather compared to last year's crazy mild for most of the winter

 

 

[Nick L]

2 minutes ago, ManiaMuse said:

I've quite enjoyed the winter weather we've had so far, certainly hasn't been as awful as some in the model threads would like to portray. Ok we haven't had 8 feet of drifting snow, but for weather you can do stuff outside in it's been quite pleasant imo. Certainly for cycling my bike to work it has been far nicer than last year.

Positives:

+ Only one spell of extreme weather in my backyard (spawn of Angus/not-storm Barbara causing flash flooding around Greater Manchester)

+ No real stormy periods of note, even the named storms weren't up to that much.

+ Dry and no spells of continuous rain for a week

+ Hardly windy at all, in fact this breeze at the moment seems quite surprising

+ Reasonable amounts of sunshine, better than last year's eternal overcast at least

+ A few spells of more seasonal weather compared to last year's crazy mild for most of the winter

 

 

In terms of snow, for many areas it has been up there with the most dire winters. For me, it's only beaten by the totally snowless rainfest of 13/14. With cold weather looking unlikely for the remainder of Feb, that fact doesn't look much like changing.

In recent years it just seems like pulling teeth trying to get a reasonable snow event.

[MP-R]

31 minutes ago, ManiaMuse said:

I've quite enjoyed the winter weather we've had so far, certainly hasn't been as awful as some in the model threads would like to portray. Ok we haven't had 8 feet of drifting snow, but for weather you can do stuff outside in it's been quite pleasant imo. Certainly for cycling my bike to work it has been far nicer than last year.

Positives:

+ Only one spell of extreme weather in my backyard (spawn of Angus/not-storm Barbara causing flash flooding around Greater Manchester)

+ No real stormy periods of note, even the named storms weren't up to that much.

+ Dry and no spells of continuous rain for a week

+ Hardly windy at all, in fact this breeze at the moment seems quite surprising

+ Reasonable amounts of sunshine, better than last year's eternal overcast at least

+ A few spells of more seasonal weather compared to last year's crazy mild for most of the winter

 

 

Indeed! A very usable season for outdoor activities and plentiful frost/sunshine. It's also been nice to have avoided the majority of Atlantic storms. However, if this winter is remembered it will likely be for all the wrong reasons. We've had blocking to last a decade yet no proper cold spell and the number of times it's been cold enough to snow yet the precipitation turns up in the small window of milder conditions is really quite frustrating. I think this winter will be even more forgettable than 2005/2006, which at least managed a snowy northerly at the front end, a snowy easterly in late December and snow at the end of Feb/early March. 

[gone]

I went to UK for Xmas and I have to say I was just wearing a light jacket. I usually stay in West Yorkshire and I am always hoping for snow so I am complaining to forces in heaven why they did not give me the white Xmas I wanted

Oh well!! I am now praying it snows in Beijing but I doubt it :(...Snow just makes everything so beautiful...and sometimes gives me free days off...;)

[ManiaMuse]

21 minutes ago, ScarletHarris said:

I went to UK for Xmas and I have to say I was just wearing a light jacket. I usually stay in West Yorkshire and I am always hoping for snow so I am complaining to forces in heaven why they did not give me the white Xmas I wanted

Oh well!! I am now praying it snows in Beijing but I doubt it :(...Snow just makes everything so beautiful...and sometimes gives me free days off...;)

Should have visited December 2015, it was T-shirt weather then!

[HafrenLMP1]

1 hour ago, ManiaMuse said:

I've quite enjoyed the winter weather we've had so far, certainly hasn't been as awful as some in the model threads would like to portray. Ok we haven't had 8 feet of drifting snow, but for weather you can do stuff outside in it's been quite pleasant imo. Certainly for cycling my bike to work it has been far nicer than last year.

Positives:

+ Only one spell of extreme weather in my backyard (spawn of Angus/not-storm Barbara causing flash flooding around Greater Manchester)

+ No real stormy periods of note, even the named storms weren't up to that much.

+ Dry and no spells of continuous rain for a week

+ Hardly windy at all, in fact this breeze at the moment seems quite surprising

+ Reasonable amounts of sunshine, better than last year's eternal overcast at least

+ A few spells of more seasonal weather compared to last year's crazy mild for most of the winter

 

 

As a cyclist the weather has been pretty good; no Atlantic storms means I've been out  every weekend during the winter - and even a the odd post work ride. Cold I can deal with; it's the wind & rain which is just dispiriting.

However, I've never ridden any of my current Cross bikes in the snow on the local Cheshire Lines path....looks like I'll have to wait another winter.

[Methuselah]

Six days on which snow has fallen, and eight on which sleet and/or snow have fallen. In any case, that's about as much as fell in the previous three 'winters' combined. Though, it has to be said that 2013/14 didn't even deliver a single blob of sleet!

[Summer Sun]

 

[iapennell]

Rather surprisingly, in view of the predicted cold of the easterlies last week (and flagged up in long-range forecast models up to three weeks earlier) the spell of easterlies has proved to be a damp squib- even where I live at over 400 metres' elevation in the North Pennines: Only four inches of rather wet snow to show for it late yesterday afternoon and at no point has the air temperature dropped below -2C (and has not since the start of February). The high-pressure that was over Scandinavia is slipping southwards and the winds here have turned south-easterly bringing air from the Med rather than icy eastern Europe- today the thaw has set in.

Mild south-westerlies and westerlies look like resuming control of the weather in the next few days and they look set to remain in place through to the month's end.

So glad I am off to Canada in a few days!

[March]

I'm going to end up with even less snow than last year, which even then was only 2cm that lasted until 2pm, despite the winter being much cooler here. 

[North-Easterly Blast]

I have to say that it is now highly likely that the theory of the warm September nearly always been followed by a milder than average winter has struck again.  Now that it looks almost certain that February's CET will end up above average, it is now an almost certainty that winter 2016-17 as a whole will finish above average.

Looking back at past weather records, it strikes out to me that it is a well known common fact of the British climate that a warm September is nearly always followed by a milder than average winter, and that a winter is rarely a cold one after a warm September.  I personally do not see that there is a pattern in the sort of winters that follow a cool or even near average September, but there appears to be a strong trend in that in any year that we see a warm September, it almost always is likely to be followed by a milder than average winter.  At the very least it appears that the trend is clear that a warm September reduces the chances of cold weather in the following winter.  It now looks almost certain that winter 2016-17 has put this theory to the test yet again.  Whenever we see a particularly warm September, I think that anyone can safely say that there the chances are increased of a milder than average winter to follow, with virtually no chance of a colder than average winter to follow.

There are not many clear trends that stand out in the records to suggest that a weather type in a certain month is more likely to be followed by a certain weather type in the next few months, but the theory of the warm September and a milder than average winter to follow is one of the strongest trends of all. 

[Summer Sun]

Early next week

Milder than recently
Wettest in northwest
Brightest in southeast

Drier and chillier end to Feb?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38961719

[iapennell]

22 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

I have to say that it is now highly likely that the theory of the warm September nearly always been followed by a milder than average winter has struck again.  Now that it looks almost certain that February's CET will end up above average, it is now an almost certainty that winter 2016-17 as a whole will finish above average.

Looking back at past weather records, it strikes out to me that it is a well known common fact of the British climate that a warm September is nearly always followed by a milder than average winter, and that a winter is rarely a cold one after a warm September.  I personally do not see that there is a pattern in the sort of winters that follow a cool or even near average September, but there appears to be a strong trend in that in any year that we see a warm September, it almost always is likely to be followed by a milder than average winter.  At the very least it appears that the trend is clear that a warm September reduces the chances of cold weather in the following winter.  It now looks almost certain that winter 2016-17 has put this theory to the test yet again.  Whenever we see a particularly warm September, I think that anyone can safely say that there the chances are increased of a milder than average winter to follow, with virtually no chance of a colder than average winter to follow.

There are not many clear trends that stand out in the records to suggest that a weather type in a certain month is more likely to be followed by a certain weather type in the next few months, but the theory of the warm September and a milder than average winter to follow is one of the strongest trends of all. 

@North-Easterly Blast, The relationship between September and the ensuing winter does have some correlation - particularly in regard to recent years. September 2016 was summer -like at times and, of course, the winter we have just had was mild -particularly in the north (relative to the seasonal norm, that is). September 2006 was also very warm and it was succeeded by the mild, wet winter of 2006/07. During the last 30 years, since when the effects of global warming have become manifest in the British climate other warm Septembers followed by mild winters include 1989, 1998, 1999, 2004  and 2014. The reason for this is likely to be that some of the factors causing September warmth go on to contribute to a milder than usual winter. Above normal sea-surface temperatures in the NE Atlantic and reduced Arctic sea-ice extent in the Arctic both help steer the Circumpolar Vortex further north causing warmer airmasses to affect the UK, both these factors mean that airmasses affecting Britain from north and west will be warmer than usual. These influences will play out in any season of the year and so this will contribute to a correlation between September and the subsequent winter. With further climatic warming in future years we can expect the increased warmth of waters to our west and less ice in the far north to lead to warmer Septembers and some very mild winters. 

However, there have been occasions in the past whereby remarkable September warmth has actually been followed by a cold winter. A classic instance was September 1985, a month punctuated by long spells with very warm sunny weather which culminated in remarkable heat on 1st October; yet winter 1985/86 was bitterly cold (in particular February 1986 during which month bitterly cold easterlies brought snow and hard frosts). September and October 1978 were also warmer than usual and this was followed by the very cold and snowy 1978/79 winter.

It really depends on what is causing a warm September as to whether one can be confident of a mild winter. If  unusually warm waters in the NE Atlantic combined with vigorous hurricane activity in the tropics are the decisive influences, particularly at a time of high sunspot activity then yes, one could predict a mild winter. The very high specific heat capacity of even just the top 50 metres of the NE Atlantic means that anomalous warmth in September is likely to persist into winter and the Sunspot Cycle barely changes in the space of a few months, so both these factors will likely affect a September and the following winter months.

On the other hand a warm September caused by a blocking high over Scandinavia bringing warm south-east winds and sunshine at a time of solar minima, strong easterlies in the equatorial Stratosphere and when sea-surface temperatures to north and west of Britain are colder would be much much less likely to indicate a mild winter! Quite apart from the fact that a blocking high is unlikely to persist for more than a few weeks, the same pattern of south-easterly winds over Britain caused by a block over Scandinavia tends to result in cold weather in the winter months rather than anomalous warmth (which could be expected from this pattern in September). Furthermore, if the Sunspot Cycle is at minimum and strong easterlies predominate in the Equatorial Stratosphere over prior months this tends to indicate a cold winter with plenty of blocking. This is especially true when these factors apply at a time sea-surface temperatures are below normal to the west and north of Britain. 

Edited February 14, 2017 by iapennell

[Summer Sun]

Next week

Spells of rain
Driest in east
Milder than recently
Brief chillier spells

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38975168

[North-Easterly Blast]

5 hours ago, iapennell said:

@North-Easterly Blast, The relationship between September and the ensuing winter does have some correlation - particularly in regard to recent years. September 2016 was summer -like at times and, of course, the winter we have just had was mild -particularly in the north (relative to the seasonal norm, that is). September 2006 was also very warm and it was succeeded by the mild, wet winter of 2006/07. During the last 30 years, since when the effects of global warming have become manifest in the British climate other warm Septembers followed by mild winters include 1989, 1998, 1999, 2004  and 2014. The reason for this is likely to be that some of the factors causing September warmth go on to contribute to a milder than usual winter. Above normal sea-surface temperatures in the NE Atlantic and reduced Arctic sea-ice extent in the Arctic both help steer the Circumpolar Vortex further north causing warmer airmasses to affect the UK, both these factors mean that airmasses affecting Britain from north and west will be warmer than usual. These influences will play out in any season of the year and so this will contribute to a correlation between September and the subsequent winter. With further climatic warming in future years we can expect the increased warmth of waters to our west and less ice in the far north to lead to warmer Septembers and some very mild winters. 

However, there have been occasions in the past whereby remarkable September warmth has actually been followed by a cold winter. A classic instance was September 1985, a month punctuated by long spells with very warm sunny weather which culminated in remarkable heat on 1st October; yet winter 1985/86 was bitterly cold (in particular February 1986 during which month bitterly cold easterlies brought snow and hard frosts). September and October 1978 were also warmer than usual and this was followed by the very cold and snowy 1978/79 winter.

It really depends on what is causing a warm September as to whether one can be confident of a mild winter. If  unusually warm waters in the NE Atlantic combined with vigorous hurricane activity in the tropics are the decisive influences, particularly at a time of high sunspot activity then yes, one could predict a mild winter. The very high specific heat capacity of even just the top 50 metres of the NE Atlantic means that anomalous warmth in September is likely to persist into winter and the Sunspot Cycle barely changes in the space of a few months, so both these factors will likely affect a September and the following winter months.

On the other hand a warm September caused by a blocking high over Scandinavia bringing warm south-east winds and sunshine at a time of solar minima, strong easterlies in the equatorial Stratosphere and when sea-surface temperatures to north and west of Britain are colder would be much much less likely to indicate a mild winter! Quite apart from the fact that a blocking high is unlikely to persist for more than a few weeks, the same pattern of south-easterly winds over Britain caused by a block over Scandinavia tends to result in cold weather in the winter months rather than anomalous warmth (which could be expected from this pattern in September). Furthermore, if the Sunspot Cycle is at minimum and strong easterlies predominate in the Equatorial Stratosphere over prior months this tends to indicate a cold winter with plenty of blocking. This is especially true when these factors apply at a time sea-surface temperatures are below normal to the west and north of Britain. 

Re September 1978, it had a CET of 14.2, which although warmer than average, is not extraordinarily so.  The same was true of September 2009 (CET similar to 1978 and was followed by a cold winter).  The point that I am making is that the September and following winter theory appears to only work one way - whilst I do not see a correlation between a cool or even average September and the type of winter that follows; much warmer than average weather in September is more likely to be followed by milder conditions during the winter, and looking at records it is very rare to get a colder than average winter after a warm September.  I think the warm September = above average winter theory is one of the clearest patterns and trends in the British climate, especially in recent years and was a common feature even further back.

[sundog]

One of my fears going into this winter despite positive signs during oct and nov was how warm sept was. I agree that a warm sept  generally seems to be bad news if one wants the winter to a good one at least in recent yrs. All the hype last autumn seemed to ignore this fact. Yet again it been proven to be correct and isnt it a sept cet of 16.0c or greater has never been followed by a cold winter,yet again thats proven to be correct aswell,although not that theres been many of them.

Maybe something that should be taken more seriously next sept especially those hunting late summer warmth in sept and still hoping for a cold winter.

Edited February 15, 2017 by sundog

[North-Easterly Blast]

34 minutes ago, sundog said:

One of my fears going into this winter despite positive signs during oct and nov was how warm sept was. I agree that a warm sept  generally seems to be bad news if one wants the winter to a good one at least in recent yrs. All the hype last autumn seemed to ignore this fact. Yet again it been proven to be correct and isnt it a sept cet of 16.0c or greater has never been followed by a cold winter,yet again thats proven to be correct aswell,although not that theres been many of them.

Maybe something that should be taken more seriously next sept especially those hunting late summer warmth in sept and still hoping for a cold winter.

I would say that whenever September is on the warm side (1*C or more above average), there is a strong correlation that it is more likely to be followed by a milder than average winter, with a small chance that it may be close to average (ie 2000-01, 2005-06), but with virtually no chance of a colder than average winter.  I would say that last year's warm September "nailed the coffin" for any chance of a colder than average winter, and ever since last September I doubted that this winter would be cold as it very rarely is after a warm September.  With last year's September being so warm, I feel it contributed towards a milder than average winter for 2016-17.

In any year where September is much above average, I would personally write off a below average winter to follow, as early as late September.  The warm September theory increasing the chance of the following winter being milder than average, is one of the strongest correlations in the British Weather between any particular month and what follows in the following few months.  I would personally say that a cool or average September does not appear to mean much as far as the following winter is concerned, I would always say that for anyone hoping for a colder than average winter then a significantly warm September is the last thing that they should want to see.

Edited February 15, 2017 by North-Easterly Blast

[4wd]

Those seem strange comments when I suspect winter will be near average - not mild or only a little above norm.
I think we only had a handful of 'mild' days around 10C here.

[sundog]

31 minutes ago, 4wd said:

Those seem strange comments when I suspect winter will be near average - not mild or only a little above norm.
I think we only had a handful of 'mild' days around 10C here.

It may not come in overly mild,but there is no getting away from it that this winter has been crap for proper cold and snow. The feeble attempt last weekend summed up  this winter well,pretty pathetic. 

At my location a good number of days this winter the temp has gotten into double figures. Nearly half the days last month were in double figures here.

[Summer Sun]