Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17

[Matthew.]

On 06/11/2016 at 20:36, iapennell said:

@Matthew Wilson; If one has concrete reasons to believe the main baroclinic zones (and thus the storm tracks) are pushed up to 70-80N in the European Arctic sector- based on where the very cold air over the pack-ice would meet much warmer (and warmer than usual) sub-arctic waters then yes, there is a possibility of the depressions (and even the extensive south-westerlies associated with them) missing much or all of the United Kingdom. That said, the further north the storm tracks are pushed, the stronger (and more extensive) the associated westerlies because they have to blow harder and more extensively to counter-balance the frictional effects of tropical and polar easterlies when they are closer to the axis of the Earth's rotation. A strongly Westerly QBO is also Westerly AAM stored in the (Equatorial) Stratosphere and sooner or later this, too, must find a sink [at the surface- probably in higher latitudes].

 

Just how the winter has panned out The question is: Can the pattern continue for summer or does the situation change?

[iapennell]

2 hours ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Just how the winter has panned out The question is: Can the pattern continue for summer or does the situation change?

The depression tracks have certainly been further north than normal and pushing deep into the Arctic at times: The reduced extent of Arctic ice compared to the long-term seasonal norm and warmer-than-usual waters in the far North Atlantic have shifted the major baroclinic zones northwards.  This helps to explain the extent that the South has been dry (and with the coldest weather at times) whilst the North and Scotland has often been in a flow of milder air from the west or south-west.

Recent developments aloft resulting in stratospheric warming over northern Canada and Greenland along with very cold stratospheric air over northern Scandinavia over coming days point to a more unsettled regime for all parts going into February, but with the real potential of much colder Maritime Arctic airstreams reaching Britain at times (from the north-west) by around the 10th February. For northern England and Scotland this means snowfalls and some sharp frosts but drier in the South.

However, the Quasi Biennial Oscillation high up over the Equator has been (and remains) most unfavourable for really severe cold over Britain and, coupled with unfavourable (weak La Niná) ENSO conditions and Arctic sea-ice extending south around NE Canada and Greenland to something like near-seasonable levels whilst the far North Atlantic remains significantly warmer than normal, suggests storm tracks will shift further south than hitherto and also that sub-arctic Atlantic depressions will be deep. There are signs of this happening already and it portends a stormy blustery end to February and going into March 2017.

There is thus likely to be some short-lived cold snaps from the north-west (or even west- thanks to the anomalous cold-pool in the North Atlantic re-emerging strong SW of Iceland) but in the main stiff Westerlies look like dominating and we may all (even in the South) experience a couple of those good old proper March gales, the like of which we have seldom had in recent years!

[Polar Maritime]

This time last year at my location.

[Summer Sun]

 

[Summer Sun]

Early next week

Everything coming up from the southwest
Remaining unsettled

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38804659

[iapennell]

8 hours ago, Polar Maritime said:

This time last year at my location.

@Polar Maritime Lovely picture. We may well get some scenes like that during the next fortnight. Some of the longer term runs now hinting at a spell with high-pressure over Scandinavia around Valentine's Day. We wait and see because the predicted warming of the Arctic Stratosphere in the next few days has been downgraded (quell, surprise)!

[Peter H]

10 minutes ago, iapennell said:

@Polar Maritime Lovely picture. We may well get some scenes like that during the next fortnight. Some of the longer term runs now hinting at a spell with high-pressure over Scandinavia around Valentine's Day. We wait and see because the predicted warming of the Arctic Stratosphere in the next few days has been downgraded (quell, surprise)!

Yes, I've noticed that although they've teased us before with that before and nothing's materialised.

Interestingly, Met Éireann are differing widely from the BBC long term outlook with temperatures by day down to 4C over Ireland on Saturday whereas the BBC has them at 7/8C on Saturday/Sunday.

It'll be good if the Scandinavian high plays out. If it does it'll be a lot like the winter of 93/94 which had a really good cold spell in the middle of February. I remember there was a cold easterly and snow on Valentine's day that year, and quite heavy snow the day after. The mild weather never really got going and the following week had bitter cold weather with a lot of snow. The rest of the winter was very mild.

 

[Summer Sun]

Month ahead forecast from the weather outlook
 

Quote

 

Temperature

Close to average

Precipitation

Close to average

1/2 to 7/2

Unsettled

All regions have unsettled and mild weather early on. Heavy spells of rain are forecast and there is a likelihood of gales, or even severe gales at times. After a mild start it becomes cooler during the middle part of the period and this leads to an increasing risk of snow over high ground in the north. Through the rest of the week it stays unsettled.

8/2 to 14/2

Turning colder

The week starts with mixed weather, but it is expected to turn progressively colder. The risk of overnight frosts increases and in the east wintry showers are possible. More changeable weather may continue in the west for a time, but during the second half of the week it probably turns drier and colder there too.

15/2 to 28/2

Cold start then more changeable [Forecast confidence is low]

Cold conditions are expected early in the period with widespread frosts. During the second half of the first week more unsettled weather may return to western regions and gradually extend eastward. This could lead to a band of rain being preceded by snow in places. During the rest of the period changeable weather is likely, with all regions having further spells of rain and the possibility of colder snaps.

 

 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/30-day-uk-weather-forecast

[Summer Sun]

Next week

Mild wet and windy
Uncertain transition
Eventually colder

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38835260

[Summer Sun]

 

[Summer Sun]

 

[Peter H]

If the latest model runs come off it looks like intensely cold at the end, after St Valentine's day but they're flipping about a bit.

A blocked pattern does seem a certainty at the end of next week though.

Could be a similar set up to March 2013 but a bit earlier, which would be good.

[damianslaw]

Notable statistic - second driest Oct-Jan period on record, coming on the back of possibly one of the wettest a year ago.. I keep saying how very wet and very dry spells have a habit of following each other and vice versa. Winter 94/95 followed by summer 95 a very good example of this.

[Frost HoIIow]

8 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Notable statistic - second driest Oct-Jan period on record, coming on the back of possibly one of the wettest a year ago.. I keep saying how very wet and very dry spells have a habit of following each other and vice versa. Winter 94/95 followed by summer 95 a very good example of this.

Probably a washout Summer on the way then to compensate for all the dryness! 

[March]

The dry spell started in July. Since July 1st I've had 246.7mm. 

Edited February 2, 2017 by March

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 hours ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Probably a washout Summer on the way then to compensate for all the dryness! 

Or a drought. I'm leaning towards a dry summer at the moment. Big trouble potentially if that's the case.

Personally, would love a 2007 revisited!

Edited February 3, 2017 by CreweCold

[Mapantz]

2 hours ago, March said:

The dry spell started in July. Since July 1st I've had 246.7mm. 

Interesting stat! 488mm here.

While it maybe drier than the past few Winters, there's no cause for concern around here. November and January's rainfall was quite a bit above average. There's even been a lot of flooding for areas down here.

Edited February 3, 2017 by Mapantz

[March]

29 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Interesting stat! 488mm here.

While it maybe drier than the past few Winters, there's no cause for concern around here. November and January's rainfall was quite a bit above average. There's even been a lot of flooding for areas down here.

Yes, it only seems to be when we get lucky with thunderstorms that my area gets more rain than yours. June was the only month we had more rain than you last year! 

[ManiaMuse]

16 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Notable statistic - second driest Oct-Jan period on record, coming on the back of possibly one of the wettest a year ago.. I keep saying how very wet and very dry spells have a habit of following each other and vice versa. Winter 94/95 followed by summer 95 a very good example of this.

Are we looking at potential drought given that February looks quite dry if the models are to be believed?

A week ago people in the model threads were moaning about how February was going to be a washout. Now it looks like the Atlantic has had second thoughts about paying a lengthy visit.

(Sorry I just jinxed it and we are now going to see a repeat of Summer 2012 just after the government announces a hosepipe ban...)

Edited February 3, 2017 by ManiaMuse

[Matthew.]

2 hours ago, ManiaMuse said:

Are we looking at potential drought given that February looks potentially quite dry if the models are to be believed?

A week ago people in the model threads were moaning about how February was going to be a washout. Now it looks like the Atlantic has had second thoughts about paying a lengthy visit.

(Sorry I just jinxed it and we are now going to see a repeat of Summer 2012 just after the government announces a hosepipe ban...)

Some early potential background signals are looking good(ENSO and QBO). So there's reason to be hopeful at least. 

 

Edited February 3, 2017 by Matthew Wilson

[Summer Sun]

Next week

Wet and windy
Drier, colder later

Next weekend

Battlezone developing will we be on the cold side of it or the milder side?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38860885

Edited February 3, 2017 by Summer Sun

[I remember Atlantic 252]

29 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Next week

Wet and windy
Drier, colder later

Next weekend

Battlezone developing will we be on the cold side of it or the milder side?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38860885

something for high elevation members to get their teeth into eg @WillinGlossop that feature moving in Saturday into Sunday, surprises there I feel

[Peter H]

As usual, the closer we get to the potential Scandinavian high, the less potent it becomes.

Latest models are showing a "cold snap" next weekend rather than anything prolonged or severe.

At least the BBC are keeping their options open.

[Weather-history]

Overall, it looks a pretty anticyclonic winter now. Sitting  along with 1933-34, 1963-64, 1991-92. Unsettled spells have been relatively short, February looks like heading down the same route. 

[summer blizzard]

2 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Overall, it looks a pretty anticyclonic winter now. Sitting  along with 1933-34, 1963-64, 1991-92. Unsettled spells have been relatively short, February looks like heading down the same route. 

It's a poor mans version of the winter of 2006 for me.