Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17

[hillbilly]

Yes ,more than disappointing with so much high pressure for the last few months it is amazing really that we could end up with a winter closely ranked alongside a mild and snowless westerly winter of recent years.

[Summer Sun]

 

[damianslaw]

Its been a notably dry and mild winter so far over Scotland and around here, long time since we had a dry and mild Dec, first half to Jan, I think winter 91/92 was the last time. Winter 08/09 was dry but cold, first half of winter 96/97 and  01/02 was also dry but cold, so quite an unusual combination for these parts. On average the second half of winter is more likely to be drier than the first half in the NW quarter of the country, indeed February can be the driest month of the year here in the Lake District.

Scottish ski resorts must be having a very poor start to the season, and the outlook suggests limited chance of snow over the coming days as well.

My feeling about this winter so far has been very indifferent, I'm finding it mind numblingly dull. 

[HafrenLMP1]

I suppose this mild, dry winter has at least been a relief to those that suffered during last winter's numerous storms......

[Summer Sun]

Next week

Low pressure to the north-west high pressure to the south

No significant cold in the forecast until the end of January

If you do like the cold "There's still February"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38657718

[Summer Sun]

Dry start to January

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2017/01/18/dry-start-to-january/

[Cwmbran Eira]

23 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Dry start to January

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2017/01/18/dry-start-to-january/

So 4 below average months on the bounce. I wonder how unusual that is

[iapennell]

There are interesting developments forecast aloft over the Arctic in coming weeks: If the Stratospheric warming over high latitudes comes off as-per the above chart (forecast for 1st February) Britain could be due the first really serious cold spell of Winter 2016/17so far. The above pattern suggests strong surface high-pressure is most likely to be over northern Canada or Greenland with low-pressure over Scandinavia; this suggests a direct hit from the Arctic on north or north-westerly winds which (in February) can be very cold. I do not, alas, think such an Arctic pattern will persist for more than a week due to the warmth of the far North Atlantic next to the very cold Arctic Canada/Greenland liable to encourage cyclogenesis, with the exceptionally strong Westerly QBO liable to kick-start the Circumpolar Vortex once more.

The occurrence of this Stratospheric pattern that could lead to our early-February Maritime Arctic outbreak may still fail to materialise- this is a fortnight out. Then the anticipated cold will either not occur or there will just be transient cold north-westerly snaps that bring nothing more than a few wintry showers and light frost.

However, there is a hopeful prospect of Arctic winds bringing snow and heavy frost that makes an interesting change to the mild, often damp (even if not rainy) and hum-drum conditions so far this winter that many have endured with difficulty. Certainly for the North and Scotland, there is a possibility that January 2017ends up even milder than I predicted in my Winter 2016/17 forecast (though possibly drier too). Next week, alas, looks like turning wetter and windier in the North. 

 

[Summer Sun]

Next week

Rain from NW
Staying dry in SE
Turning milder

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38672057

[reef]

Another winter that's the absolute pits so far for wintry weather. Winter index showing the worst 10 winters here since 1987:

1987/88: 27.9
2015/16: 24.4
2007/08: 20.7
2006/07: 17.6
1997/98: 15.9
2016/17: 13.4 (to 19th Jan)
1989/90: 9.3
1988/89: 7.8
2013/14: 5.6

Will February save it I wonder?

[Summer Sun]

Outlook

Wind & rain in NW
Otherwise dry & cool
Frost and fog at times

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/38685802

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, reef said:

Another winter that's the absolute pits so far for wintry weather. Winter index showing the worst 10 winters here since 1987:

1987/88: 27.9
2015/16: 24.4
2007/08: 20.7
2006/07: 17.6
1997/98: 15.9
2016/17: 13.4 (to 19th Jan)
1989/90: 9.3
1988/89: 7.8
2013/14: 5.6

Will February save it I wonder?

Yes in terms of snow we've yet to record a cover here.. there have been a few frosts but nothing particularly harsh. There is still alot of winter left yet, and I would include March in any index, every bit as wintry as December here. If you include November then the ranking in my view should be a bit better, we did well in November in terms of cold frosty weather, and we had a couple of days that produced snowfall, indeed 9 November was early for the time of year.

I remain hopeful Feb and March produced some potent wintry weather. 

[AderynCoch]

It's been a repugnant winter so far in the UK, with even flippin' Benidorm getting lying snow (like that ever happens). In absolute terms there have been worse winters but in terms of luck I can't think of one which ranks lower. And coming off the back of last "winter" it really is a disgusting situation. I'm really lucky to have escaped to Central Europe, where it's brass monkeys (though not on the scale of a couple of weeks back).

Have a picture of an icy Danube:

 

[cheese]

1 hour ago, AderynCoch said:

It's been a repugnant winter so far in the UK, with even flippin' Benidorm getting lying snow (like that ever happens). In absolute terms there have been worse winters but in terms of luck I can't think of one which ranks lower. And coming off the back of last "winter" it really is a disgusting situation. I'm really lucky to have escaped to Central Europe, where it's brass monkeys (though not on the scale of a couple of weeks back).

Have a picture of an icy Danube:

 

I find this post funny, because people from those places usually escape to places like Benidorm to get away from the cold - bet a lot of people were surprised (and perhaps annoyed) to see snow in coastal Spain!

[Weather-history]

On 05/10/2016 at 17:26, Summer Sun said:

Accuweather winter forecast

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-2016-2017-stormy-uk-mild-wet-france-germany/60378723

That's a poor forecast. Over the halfway point, the first half of winter has been drier than average, few storms, anticyclonicity  has dominated and continuing further into January, already 2/3rds into January. That leaves February. 

I assume they use the same techniques they use to produce their North American seasonal forecasts.

Edited January 20, 2017 by Weather-history

[hillbilly]

Maybe this thread needs to finish as today is the first day of spring here,the birds were singing first thing and what a glorious day it is ,you would think it is the end of March had it not been for daylight !

[Weather-history]

The sun returns!

 

[cheese]

2 hours ago, Weather-history said:

The sun returns!

 

I love how it just gets shunted away so effortlessly.. good riddance.

[feb1991blizzard]

6 hours ago, hillbilly said:

Maybe this thread needs to finish as today is the first day of spring here,the birds were singing first thing and what a glorious day it is ,you would think it is the end of March had it not been for daylight !

Applying that logic though, you'd never even open a winter or summer thread in the last few years, it would just be called the 12 month season with max temps not much into double figures and minimums not much below 10c.

Edited January 20, 2017 by feb1991blizzard

[Summer Sun]

Next weekend

Windier for all

Rain at times

Driest in S & E

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/38698597

[Summer Sun]

@Huddsweatherman

February will be unsettled at times & colder & milder interludes are air masses alternate with each low pressure. Still a moderate chance of a very cold easterly wind developing with some snow mid-month.

[summer blizzard]

Personally i think our best chance of a -AO developing proper is after the 10th Feb although its firstly worth noting that as we saw in early December, an attempted split can occur at a horrible angle for us so no guarantee. 

Thinking to the aftermath it will also be interesting to see if the weakened stratosphere remains a feature or we see a spike. The winter of 2012 for example saw a warming and a frigid first half of Feb however stratospheric temperatures then fell and produced the pornographic March of 2012. 

https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra2/t60_90n_10_2011_merra2.pdf

Edited January 21, 2017 by summer blizzard

[iapennell]

Some hint of colder air from the south/south-east finally reached the North Pennines: Clear skies, lovely stars (walking back from work last night all the winter constellations- Orion and his belt mid-way up in south, Gemini high in the south and Sirius- the bright star in Canis Major shining brightly low in SSE nice to see; hardly seen them over last fortnight!) and frost last night down to -1C. Such a change after endless mild damp with periodic hill-fog and temperatures close to 7C. It is so important where persistent high-pressure centres are located as to what weather one gets and northern Britain is often on the NW periphery of the big European Highs- so we tend to get mild air from somewhere near the Azores! Not exactly what you want for crisp hard frosts, starry nights and bright winter days!

The outlook for real cold remains generally poor. A promised high-latitude Stratospheric warming for end January over central Arctic/Greenland seems to have been downgraded a little (tip for punters, NEVER put too much faith in the models or in weather-charts more than ten days out- I have done that in the past only to be disappointed later!). I go by the fact that sea-surface temperatures remain well above normal on the fringes of the Arctic, there is also a strong sea-surface temperature gradient in the NW Atlantic between unusually warm waters for the time of year (up to 8C warmer than usual) off the US East Coast and somewhat icier than usual waters east of Newfoundland. This results in a sharp atmospheric temperature gradient liable to spawn depressions that will head into the NE Atlantic and (further north) the very strong thermal gradient between the warmth of the far North Atlantic and (now) very cold Greenland/Arctic interior will promote further strong cyclogenesis and westerlies to their south that will likewise prevent direct hits of Arctic or Siberian air. The Quasi biennial Oscillation has been in a record Westerly Phase for a couple of months now, and that is something that supports strong higher-latitude Westerlies through an invigorated Circumpolar Vortex.

All of that said, there is a hint (not a guarantee) of something cold via the north or north-west because of predicted developments aloft over the Arctic now ten days out. This will take time to work down from the Stratosphere into the general circulation of mid to high latitudes; so with the (predicted) position of warmth aloft liable to be over northern Canada and the central Arctic, that places high-pressure over Greenland/north-east Canada with depressions in the Eurasian Arctic around 10th to 20th February. There is also a sizeable blob of colder-than-normal water in the North Atlantic south-west of Iceland which may also assist the formation of a Greenland-North Atlantic ridge by then- particularly as air-masses over the Greenland ice-cap become extremely cold (and thus dense) by early February. This flags up the chance of a northerly or north-westerly spell with incursions of Maritime Arctic air over the UK; however such a spell of cold is not likely to be long-lasting and indicators such as the QBO high over the Equator and strongly baroclinic zones in the far North and NW Atlantic mean a return to milder Westerlies by the following week. This is especially as the long-term Stratospheric charts suggest the Stratospheric Polar Vortex will recover Pole Position and strength going into mid-February! 

[MP-R]

Interesting how my quietest month of the year for weather on average might bring a return of the westerlies. The highly unusual winter continues!

[ArHu3]

A meter of snow for the Sahara, this truely has been an exceptional winter all around the world, except for western netherlands and the uk http://www.ad.nl/buitenland/sahara-bedolven-onder-meter-sneeuw~a44bc65a/