Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17

[Peter H]

I see the Scandinavian high is back on the latest runs from next Monday after having been gone since yesterday.

We're now rapidly approaching the half way stage of the winter and we haven't had anything remotely cold this winter and no snow at all. If nothing changes over the next three weeks it's another mostly mild, frost free, snowless one. You can forget about February which really is more like a Spring month in these parts.

I hope those latest model runs are correct, but it'll probably be back to a westerly scenario in the morning.

[cheese]

Quite cold across Eastern Europe and Scandinavia.. some low temps from capital cities:

Minsk -25.1C

Moscow -29.9C!!!

Vilnius -23.5C

Stockholm -20.0C

Helsinki -24.7C

Warsaw -18.9C

Riga -19.2C

Edited January 7, 2017 by cheese

[Summer Sun]

Colder later next week with some wintry showers

Further ahead

Less cold
Cloud returning
Wet and windy at times

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38543367

[Peter H]

Scandinavian high gone again today and the latest model runs don't look great after next weekend's all too brief "cold snap".

The Met Office have also dropped "the possibility of extremely cold weather" from their 6-30 day extended outlook.

This winter is rapidly running out of steam and fast becoming yet another relatively mild, frost free, snowless one, yet again.

Fed up with continual mild and snowless winters. Fifth one in a row now.

 

Edited January 7, 2017 by Peter H

[Peter H]

15 hours ago, cheese said:

Quite cold across Eastern Europe and Scandinavia.. some low temps from capital cities:

Minsk -25.1C

Moscow -29.9C!!!

Vilnius -23.5C

Stockholm -20.0C

Helsinki -24.7C

Warsaw -18.9C

Riga -19.2C

Not much use here unless we get an easterly, and that doesn't seem likely now.

Even Athens and Istanbul are cold with snow.

[Weather-history]

December 2016 according to NOAA analysis. 500mb anomaly chart. One word: anticyclonic

[Summer Sun]

Further ahead

Milder

Cloud returning

More unsettled

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/38549070

[Don]

49 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Further ahead

Milder

Cloud returning

More unsettled

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/38549070

It would seem that they are not going with their own model at the moment then?  My bet would be to see a backtrack from the ECM this evening.

[Summer Sun]

One paper has said the met office have issued a warning over snow in London they haven't 

Another has made reference to the cold over Europe the colder weather heading our way is from a totally different source and direction 

 

[Summer Sun]

Snow and wind warnings out for the west on Wed's and Thurs

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1484092800

[Summer Sun]

[Summer Sun]

Next week

Milder

Less windy

Rain in northwest

Drier in southeast

Later this week daytime highs ranging from 3c in the north to around 6c or 7c in the south

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/38563948

[Don]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Next week

Milder

Less windy

Rain in northwest

Drier in southeast

Later this week daytime highs ranging from 3c in the north to around 6c or 7c in the south

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/38563948

A very wishy washy cold snap looking at that forecast.  Little more than a chilly breeze for the south!  6/7c is average for January.

Edited January 9, 2017 by Don

[Summer Sun]

 

[jvenge]

Dniester river on the Moldova/Ukraine border at the weekend. It was -17 and snowing, with a windchill of -25. Beautiful, but thoroughly unpleasant.

[Summer Sun]

Beeb now hinting at an easterly during next week

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/38575165

[Cheshire Freeze]

I see our customary spring cold spell is limbering up

[Summer Sun]

Later next week

Unsettled in northwest and relatively mild
Wintry showers in east
Overnight fog
Cold for most
 
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38590670

[Summer Sun]

Later next week

Colder air pushing back into the south and east
Milder air for Scotland and Northern Ireland

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/38605051

[iapennell]

The combination of the strength of the QBO (15 m/s from West average through December) and the temperature anomalies over the northernmost North Atlantic have seen to it that the Westerlies have remained strong enough (and far enough north) to prevent really cold weather in Britain to date. There was some cold weather in November and some frosty nights in the South during December thanks to high-pressure caused by a combination of exceptional early snow-cover over Eurasia extending into Europe and the distortions in the upper Westerlies caused by the return of the NE Atlantic "Cold Patch" (south of Iceland)- all of which has encouraged high-pressure to extend westwards across Europe at times. Extremely cold weather over eastern Europe over the last week is attributable to high-pressure moving south over the continent following the passage of a depression into the eastern Med (pulling in very cold air from northern Russia)- but the North Atlantic flow was too strong to permit this cold to filter further west.

The current (short) cold spell is as a result of west-north-westerly winds following the passage of a deep depression eastwards to the north of Scotland; this depression brought gales across parts of the North and Scotland two nights ago: The unseasonable warmth of the far North Atlantic next to the extremely cold Greenland and NE Canada creates the right conditions for deep depressions that (eventually) push east well to the north of the country; the strength of the Circumpolar Vortex and strong Westerly Phase of the QBO would appear to be over-riding factors that ensure the Westerlies off the North Atlantic remain of sufficient strength to keep really severe (or prolonged) cold reaching this country this winter.

Hopes that blocking-pattens and Eurasian snow-cover at the start of the season would produce some real hard weather with deep snow and -10C nationwide have been dashed, perhaps inevitably. However, one could do what I plan to do with my brother- book a holiday somewhere guaranteed to give one a "deep snow and -20C" fix: On the 17th February I am off to Churchill, NE Canada for eleven days!       

[Weather-history]

On 5 October 2016 at 17:26, Summer Sun said:

Accuweather winter forecast

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-2016-2017-stormy-uk-mild-wet-france-germany/60378723

And their winter forecast for the UK is in deep trouble again. Nearly half way through the winter and it has been pretty anticyclonic overall, few storms,  and this looks like continuing further into January.

[Summer Sun]

Later next week

Dry start
Light winds
Cold northerlies poised again

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/38615781

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Later next week

Dry start
Light winds
Cold northerlies poised again

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/38615781

wet start here though, Monday looks a shocker

[Summer Sun]

Next week

Turning unsettled
Windier
Mild
No signs of significant cold weather between now and the end of January - But that could change

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38645646

[Peter H]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Next week

Turning unsettled
Windier
Mild
No signs of significant cold weather between now and the end of January - But that could change

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38645646

I'm not optimistic.

I've given up on this winter now. Absolutely dire and another mild snowless and frost free one.

We had an all too brief skiff of snow on Friday which lasted until about 11 am. No more than a very light covering (<1cm)

Really mild today and eventually wet. Horrible and depressing weather.

Roll on spring and summer.