Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17

[Polar Maritime]

Some cracking wintry scenes over Gods country the last few days..

 

[Summer Sun]

@Gavin P has issued his final winter update - the winter forecast will be out on Thursday

 

Edited November 28, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

Mainly dry this week as we move into winter with cloud amounts probably increasing - no hints of anything colder long term unlike that past 5 days or so

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38122653

[Paul_1978]

23 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Gavin P has issued his final winter update - the winter forecast will be out on Thursday

 

Can't watch it.... His style grates a bit too much for me. 

[Summer Sun]

Level 2 cold weather alert in place until Friday for all of England expect the London area

Current alert level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness

Issued at: 08:42 on Mon 28 Nov 2016

There is an 80 % probability of severe cold weather between 2100 on Monday 28 Nov and 1500 on Friday 02 Dec in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

High pressure will bring generally dry and settled conditions through this period, with clear skies and light winds allowing a widespread moderate frost to occur tonight and tomorrow night. A Level 2 Cold Weather Alert for all regions, except London, will be triggered. From Wednesday onwards cloudier and slightly less cold conditions will arrive across northern England, therefore overnight frosts become fewer and less severe, and the trigger criteria are unlikely to be met across northern areas, while perhaps persisting further south until almost the end of the forecast period.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

[Summer Sun]

Into next week

Slow changes

Atlantic fronts

Rain in northwest

Settled in southeast

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38138954

Edited November 28, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

What weather will winter bring?

The amplification of the jet stream will play an important role in the type of weather we can expect. A more amplified jet - one that is weaker and orientated more north-south - will encourage high pressure. This is likely to bring largely dry weather with some sunshine, cold days and frosty nights.

Strengthening of the jet would bring an Atlantic influence. This means stronger winds, milder air and spells of rain, and perhaps briefly the chance of snow. These Atlantic incursions are expected to be short-lived however. Cold, quiet winter weather is expected to be the more dominant pattern in the weeks ahead.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38146521?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_weather&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central

[Summer Sun]

Judah Cohen has updated his blog looking ahead to winter

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

[Summer Sun]

The first morning of winter starts with a low of -7c in Usk, Monmouthshire

[AderynCoch]

December as it should be:

[Summer Sun]

The TWO winter forecast is now out

Quote

Winter: Average but cold core

Overview

Close to average temperatures are expected over the three-month period as a whole. However, a very cold and potentially snowy spell during the middle of the winter is forecast to be sandwiched in between the mild spells and there is considerable uncertainty. Rainfall is predicted to be slightly below the average.

Temperature

Close to average.

Precipitation

Slightly below average.

December

Temperature: Slightly above average

Precipitation: Slightly above average in the north west, slightly below average in the south east

First half

The early part of the month brings a good deal of dry weather with some nighttime frost but the extent of this will be limited due to cloud cover. Milder conditions develop during the second week and it gradually becomes more changeable with an increasing risk of rain, particularly in the west.

Second half

Predominantly changeable weather is forecast. All regions have spells of rain but the most unsettled periods are likely in the north west where it also becomes windy on occasion. Over the period as a whole temperatures will probably be close to average. During drier and clearer spells nighttime frosts develop in central and eastern regions but snow will probably be reserved for higher ground in the north.

January

Temperature: Below average

Precipitation: Below average

First half

The first half of the month is expected to start on a rather mild and unsettled note with the risk of showers or longer spells of rain in all regions. Windy spells of weather are also likely. As the period progresses a transition to a much colder and wintry spell of weather is considered the most probable outcome. This brings the risk of significant snowfall, especially to eastern and northern regions. Frosts are also likely to become widespread and severe, and persist through the days at times. 

Second half

Cold but mostly dry conditions are expected early on. As the forecast period progresses a gradual change to more unsettled and milder weather probably develops in the north west and spreads southeastwards across all regions. As the milder conditions return transitional snow is possible. Eastern regions may remain rather cold for much of the period.

FORECAST NOTE: A significant spell of wintry weather is considered the most likely outcome and this is reflected in the January forecast. However, the chance of milder conditions dominating through this period is thought to be only slightly less probable and if this happened the winter as a whole would probably turn out to be milder than average.

February

Temperature: Close to average, possibly slightly above average.

Precipitation Close to average, possibly slightly below average

First half

The first half of the month sees unsettled weather developing with temperatures often close to the average and possibly above average at times in the south. Rainfall totals will probably be close to or slightly above the average but drier spells are more likely in the south and east. Later on drier spells become more frequent and lead to an increasing frost risk.

Second half

Through the middle of the month colder conditions may develop for a time and bring a risk of widespread nighttime frosts, and sleet or snow to the north. Later in the period unsettled conditions return and in the south it becomes much milder. In the north temperatures could remain close to the average.

 

4

4

 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

Edited December 1, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

@Gavin P has issued his winter forecast

 

1. A chance of a colder than average winter
2. Blocking should be a regular feature this winter possibly favoring Scandinavia rather than Greenland - So we could have a higher than average frequency of easterly winds
3. Cold episodes on and off bringing some snow
4. Possibly quite mild and begin in-between the cold
5. Precipitation should be below average

[damianslaw]

Held off giving my thoughts until today, as I could see the models were suggesting perhaps a less cold start to December than was looking the case a week or so ago, and I'm glad I waited as this is now confirmed. Alas for its worth here is my forecast, just my opinion..

Headline - An episodic winter, with alternating spells of colder and milder than average weather, some notably dry weather at times, not expecting particularly stormy wet conditions, or anything especially severe cold wise.

December - after a dry and chilly start with some frost and fog especially in England and Wales, becoming mild locally very mild next week with rain in the NW, drier further SE but with some rain at times as well, with no frost. From the 11 Dec a change to cooler conditions from the NW, but still unsettled, milder in the SE, perhaps some wintry conditions on higher ground in the north, this changeable weather lasting through until mid month, when we see a change again to colder drier conditions, with high pressure most likely ridging out of near continent once again propped up by azores high, and settling into a similiar position as current, these conditions lasting through until christmas, possibly ridging further NE to bring in more of an easterly feed with chance of wintry showers. Christmas - New Year possibly more unsettled with fronts breaking through from SW, possible battleground scenario if the heights do ridge to the NE as they will be hard to shift, so potentially some snowy weather.

January - I agree with some other forecasters, coldest month, with chance of significant cold first half of the month, thanks to strong heights to the NE doing battle with a still rather weak atlantic, but end result may be a SE flow, which will have some of the cold mixed out within, so mostly dry and raw. Second half of Jan a probable return to atlantic weather with westerlies/southwesterlies limited frost.

February - very changeable, milder westerlies interspersed with colder northerlies at times.

 

The last episodic winter we had in terms of alternating cold and mild conditions was winter 08/09, which overall was fairly dry apart from the mid december - christmas period, and second half of Feb. Cold spells came early-mid Dec, late Dec- early Jan, early-mid Feb with an average/mild second half Jan, mild mid-late Dec and very mild second half of Feb.

[Summer Sun]

Further ahead

Strengthening winds

Turning milder

Rain moving in

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38177640

[I remember Atlantic 252]

What a surprise SS, just hope it can be as dry as possible,

[Weather-history]

My winter thoughts.

I'm going for February to be the main month for wintry activity. The last pretty notable cold February was in 1991 and I feel the statistical elastic band on this is very stretched and must be close to snapping. 

Considering that December and March have returned notably large -ve temperature anomalies in the last few years and January less so but still larger than any February since 1991, there is nothing that should prevent February.

In 2009 and 2012, it were the second halves of these months that prevented low CETs.

[Summer Sun]

Mid week and beyond

Strengthening winds

Turning milder

Rain at times

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38191118

[virtualsphere]

I wouldn't be surprised if we had a better chance at an easterly spell during this winter - this is just a guess, but I've noticed a few notable easterly charts pop up throughout the year with some quite unusual synoptics.  In May and June, for example, we had several days of home-grown thunderstorms here in SW Wales due to a convergence zone setup within an easterly / north easterly flow and sea breezes from the SW - this is very unusual and I can't remember it happening before, certainly not in the last 10 years or so.

e.g. We had storms on this day:

Some other examples:

In general, since last winter we've seen some strong blocking anomalies to the NE and quite a muted signal elsewhere:

...which certainly compares to the same period last year, preceding that record warm December:

Obviously this isn't a scientific observation and it doesn't mean the setup will occur again during the winter season, especially if the polar vortex strengthens and introduces a greater chance of a zonal flow, but if there are no strong drivers to push the atmosphere into a different state then I wonder if we'll have a greater chance of a continental easterly this season than in recent years?  

Compare this to 2010, preceding the exceptionally cold December - notable heights over Greenland throughout the April to November period:

As a caveat I should point out this doesn't always work - in 2014 a similar anomaly to this year didn't result in an easterly winter.

I've just watched Gav's winter forecast (posted by Summer Sun above) and interesting that he's going for a possibility of Scandinavian blocking as well.

Edited December 2, 2016 by virtualsphere
Removed rogue chart!

[Peter H]

November was good in parts. Some really cold, bright crisp days when the frost didn't lift, but it's been mild, cloudy, and frost free for the last 7 days.

Next week looks set to turn really mild eventually, with temperatures up to at least 13C. Yuk, Not another one.

The latest model runs don't look too good either, with nothing remotely cold, even up to the 18th, a week before Christmas.

December has gone pear shaped. Even the BBC have dropped the "plunge of cold air mid month" from their long range forecasts. One can only hope the second half of December and January will be better.

Edited December 2, 2016 by Peter H

[Fingers]

Evening all,

     Just reviewed the charts for the winter of 62/63..... I'm not entirely sure if I could have controlled myself during that!

It looks so easy. Cold high pressure wandering around with frost and fog at the start of december, brief milder spell as the high drifts southwards and then heaven as the Azores high builds in across to Scandinavia before retrogressing slowly north west in to Greenland. Purples and blues frequently maintained to the north, enso neutral on La Niña side, low sunspots, cold in Asia.

I'm hoping we'll see some very cold charts for the last week of December arriving in the extended range in around the 10th and you never know, this could be a VERY special Christmas! 

Never give up, never surrender!

Clem

Edited December 3, 2016 by Fingers

[Summer Sun]

BBC weather for the week ahead

Turning much milder

Becoming windy

Rain at times

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38195722

[Peter H]

On ‎01‎/‎12‎/‎2016 at 10:39, AderynCoch said:

December as it should be:

Nice photos. December 2010 ?

The last time we had any significant snow here was December 2010, 6 years now.

That's a long time to wait.

There was lying . snow on Christmas day here that year

[Peter H]

Just reviewed the charts for the winter of 62/63..... I'm not entirely sure if I could have controlled myself during that!

Yep, here's a very good summery. Oh for a winter like that one again.

http://myweb.tiscali.co.uk/mtullett/1962-63/

 

 

[NorthYorksWeather]

1 hour ago, Peter H said:

Nice photos. December 2010 ?

The last time we had any significant snow here was December 2010, 6 years now.

That's a long time to wait.

There was lying . snow on Christmas day here that year

Thats Slovakia now, he lives there

[Summer Sun]

Early next week

Fairly mild

Breezy

Alternating spells of rain / sun

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38216709