Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17

[I remember Atlantic 252]

getting the right setups too early as well, this would be a vile day, rain and wind, who wants that

[Summer Sun]

1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

Anyone else get the feeling that even with a weak Polar Vortex, cold air will still manage to dance around the UK thanks to the blocks never being in the correct position.

Well most if not all of the good charts have remained post D10 all is not lost yet by any means but I certainly wouldn't have my hopes up despite the current state of the this is the UK after all and if something manages to go wrong it more often than not does....

Edited November 16, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Weather-history]

Manchester Winter Index for these winters

1973-74: 30

1974-75: 26

1975-76: 41

1976-77: 141

1977-78: 90

1978-79: 263

1979-80: 66

1980-81: 90

1981-82: 149

1982-83: 85

1983-84: 82

1984-85: 140

1985-86: 159

1986-87: 100

1987-88: 37

1988-89: 20

1989-90: 26

1990-91: 126

1991-92: 40

1992-93: 43

1993-94: 78

1994-95: 45

1995-96: 135

1996-97: 72

1997-98: 25

1998-99: 47

1999-00: 42

2000-01: 77

2001-02: 50

2002-03: 44

2003-04: 50

2004-05: 47

2005-06: 59

2006-07: 21

2007-08: 37

2008-09: 105

2009-10: 197

2010-11: 119

2011-12: 47

2012-13: 102

2013:-14: 7

2014-15: 82

2015-16: 28

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

getting the right setups too early as well, this would be a vile day, rain and wind, who wants that

The absence of cold air to the east is quite telling in that chart. That's why I always look north this early in the season with emphasis on easterlies from mid-December, unless something exceptional like 2010 or 1996.

[jvenge]

3 hours ago, lassie23 said:

Anyone else get the feeling that even with a weak Polar Vortex, cold air will still manage to dance around the UK thanks to the blocks never being in the correct position.

Possible I guess, along with the AO being negative. Just because it allows colder air to mid latitudes, doesn't mean over the UK ;-)

[iapennell]

Whether snow or not, there is every chance of many folk in Britain waking up to their first really sharp frost of the winter (min air temp -3C or lower) by Sunday morning with this set-up:

Arctic air pushing south-east over Britain by Saturday (origin Greenland)!

 

[Smiler1709]

Got a nagging feeling that with all the background symbols were still gonna end up with a bang average winter. Really hope I'm wrong 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

7 hours ago, Smiler1709 said:

Got a nagging feeling that with all the background symbols were still gonna end up with a bang average winter. Really hope I'm wrong 

yes, likely, still autumn now, but Sun and Mon look absolutely washed out for the north midlands, dry Sat night, Sun night and mon night though, may avoid flooding for Midlands at least

[Turnedoutniceagain]

We're on pg23. Have I missed the first "Winter's over" post yet?

[lassie23]

10 minutes ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

We're on pg23. Have I missed the first "Winter's over" post yet?

In case you have, this is especially for you, Winter's over, roll on next winter,

[jonboy]

1 minute ago, lassie23 said:

In case you have, this is especially for you, Winter's over, roll on next winter,

so that would be 1st December then!!!

[lassie23]

Just now, jonboy said:

so that would be 1st December then!!!

Are we still in autumn Seems to go on for over these day

[beefy201]

Just  another average winter coming up me thinks with only the usual places getting snowfall

[lassie23]

3 minutes ago, beefy201 said:

Just  another average winter coming up me thinks with only the usual places getting snowfall

Scottish Highlands

[beefy201]

Yep and northern hills its been a nice chilly October with some unusual snowfall in places but I think winter is about to cast its wet mushy miserable mess.

[Bobd29]

Autumn lasted 6 months last time so by the end of this November we will have faced 9 of the last 15 months as Autumnal, time for winter proper to take over. I do believe that December will deliver nationwide snow and cold this year from the east/ne with strong nthn blocking and low pressure around the Med. glass half full we will win out this time around.

[Summer Sun]

JAMSTEC has updated for November this update for winter isn't as good as they were in September and October

November update

September and October updates

[markyo]

http://edelweissspitze.panomax.com/

One can wish I suppose!

[Summer Sun]

Ice warning out for some western parts tonight within the ice warning the met office are saying the potential for 1-3 cm of snow around 100-200m and more than 6 cm above 400m

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1479340800&regionName=uk

Edited November 17, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Seasonality]

4 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

We're on pg23. Have I missed the first "Winter's over" post yet?

Yes you did. There has already been a lot of butthurt and tantrums! Hilarious really.

[jvenge]

3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

JAMSTEC has updated for November this update for winter isn't as good as they were in September and October

November update

September and October updates

It didn't exactly do a fantastic job with Eastern Europe all the way to the eastern edge of Russia, did it? ;-)

[DOdo]

This morning we had 3 hours of transitional snow. Temperatures fell from +6 to +1 in the space of 2 hours. It was so nice to see. Roll on December

[Paul_1978]

15 hours ago, beefy201 said:

Just  another average winter coming up me thinks with only the usual places getting snowfall

What brings you to that conclusion?

[Gael_Force]

10 hours ago, jvenge said:

It didn't exactly do a fantastic job with Eastern Europe all the way to the eastern edge of Russia, did it? ;-)

The only model I saw (there are many we don't get to see) which got the Siberian cold right is the SST analogue one. Model produced by Huug Van den Dool and sometimes featured on Gav's weather videos.

September prediction.

[Weather-history]

18 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

JAMSTEC has updated for November this update for winter isn't as good as they were in September and October

November update

September and October updates

Simple logic, that November update, how can virtually the whole of Eurasia be above average except Mongolia?

Only a computer  can produce that outcome when simple human logic knows that is just not feasible. 

Edited November 18, 2016 by Weather-history
.