Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17

[ArHu3]

Which city should I put my money (it's not really my money but free credit from I betting site)  on for a white christmas, Glasgow?

Manchester 7/2

Glasgow 7/2

Cork 7/2

London 7/2

Birmingham 4/1

Dublin 4/1

Cardiff 5/1

Edited November 14, 2016 by ArHu3

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 10/11/2016 at 19:39, Weather-history said:

The worst winter I have experienced was 2013-14 and even  then I still saw snow at 20m or so above sea level.

There hasn't been a single winter that I didn't see snow and that is just the winter months. 

 

I'm really struggling to remember snow at all last winter. Think there was one (very small) wet fall at some point but hardly worthy of being called a snowfall. It really was dire.

[Sleighbelle]

The last picture I can find on my iPad of any snowfall here in NW London was 3rd Feb 2015 and that was just about a cm and I think it quickly melted if I remember. Hoping for something better this winter which of course has not yet started officially.

[SMU]

1 hour ago, Snowboard Tennison Down said:

Steve there Seems to be a potent storm tracking south on Sunday which is the dominant subject on the model thread - I recall similar lows taking a southerly track during our colder winters and causing problems as they stalled? And hung about for a bit.  They should suck a load of cold air with them too. Any thoughts? 

I would expect 3 changes in the output

* depth downgraded - perhaps even disrupted into smaller waves

* track optimised further south 

* mild air to be squeezed out to the near continent ( showing pulsing up into the UK at the moment )

The expectation for Winter would indeed expect to see the cold air in situ over the UK for longer -  & of course higher incidence of snowfall coming in from the SW-

S

[SMU]

1 hour ago, ArHu3 said:

Which city should I put my money (it's not really my money but free credit from I betting site)  on for a white christmas, Glasgow?

Manchester 7/2

Glasgow 7/2

Cork 7/2

London 7/2

Birmingham 4/1

Dublin 4/1

Cardiff 5/1

Glasgow as its same odds as London - Statistically it would have the highest chance

[drm]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Glasgow as its same odds as London - Statistically it would have the highest chance

not sure Cork and Glasgow should have the same odds mind you id have Aberdeen top of the city list 

[SMU]

Aberdeen is a strong shout however purely based on average wind flow direction Glasgow just pips it

[ArHu3]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Aberdeen is a strong shout however purely based on average wind flow direction Glasgow just pips it

I'm not a gambling man but I  saw this enormous opportunity last  month and had to act, and they gave me free credit,  Aberdeen is not an option, so Glasgow it is 

[SMU]

Whats the value of your freebet

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, ArHu3 said:

Which city should I put my money (it's not really my money but free credit from I betting site)  on for a white christmas, Glasgow?

Manchester 7/2

Glasgow 7/2

Cork 7/2

London 7/2

Birmingham 4/1

Dublin 4/1

Cardiff 5/1

How can Cork be the same odds as Glasgow? Unless it is Alpes De Cork

[Summer of 95]

Cork at 7/2 is daylight robbery.

Cardiff would be my punt with those odds....

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

12 hours ago, ArHu3 said:

Which city should I put my money (it's not really my money but free credit from I betting site)  on for a white christmas, Glasgow?

Manchester 7/2

Glasgow 7/2

Cork 7/2

London 7/2

Birmingham 4/1

Dublin 4/1

Cardiff 5/1

Newcastle at 5/1 is a stormer of a bet. I have £100 on Aberdeen.  My LRF later this week will reflect this but Glasgow superb at 7/2!!

 

BFTP 

[marksiwnc]

1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Newcastle at 5/1 is a stormer of a bet. I have £100 on Aberdeen.  My LRF later this week will reflect this but Glasgow superb at 7/2!!

 

BFTP 

Never mind that blast what about Leeds 6/1??? 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

3 hours ago, marksiwnc said:

Never mind that blast what about Leeds 6/1??? 

Got to be worth a £20!!

[Fozfoster]

Dam ........ my bet 365 account has no prices for will it wont it snow................. yet.

[jethro]

17 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

I would expect 3 changes in the output

* depth downgraded - perhaps even disrupted into smaller waves

* track optimised further south 

* mild air to be squeezed out to the near continent ( showing pulsing up into the UK at the moment )

The expectation for Winter would indeed expect to see the cold air in situ over the UK for longer -  & of course higher incidence of snowfall coming in from the SW-

S

I've heard of those mythical SW battleground dumpings, but never in the 20 odd years down here have I experienced one. Here's hoping the myth becomes a reality this winter and us SW folk wake up to scenes like this. Fingers and toes crossed.

[78/79]

2 hours ago, jethro said:

I've heard of those mythical SW battleground dumpings, but never in the 20 odd years down here have I experienced one. Here's hoping the myth becomes a reality this winter and us SW folk wake up to scenes like this. Fingers and toes crossed.

I've seen it a few times, New Years Eve 78 , was a notable blizzard down here , a raw N/E wind all day. The snow started in the early evening , just as we were going out to the Kings Head  in Cheddar. When we came out about 1.am it was blowing a blizzard. New road from Axbridge into Cheddar was a corridor of snow where the diggers from Batts Coombe Quarry had piled it up. Feb 78 was a good one as well, as was Jan 82.

[markyo]

By far the most interesting model watchers watching i have done in many years!! Love the way every chart is devoured and every little clue is poured over in the search for cold. Those Prozac manufactures must be coining it in! Makes a welcome change from the dullness of summer model wise.

[SMU]

3 hours ago, jethro said:

I've heard of those mythical SW battleground dumpings, but never in the 20 odd years down here have I experienced one. Here's hoping the myth becomes a reality this winter and us SW folk wake up to scenes like this. Fingers and toes crossed.

To get decent snow events in the south / South west -from atlantic systems there MUST be high pressure in situ over the North sea / towards Scandi- 

Sadly that element has been missing in recent years so 'sliding' lows have tended to arrive ( from the NW ) & over the North sea there has tended to be low pressure - so the slider system doesnt have any surface cold air feeding into it- 

It doesnt matter for hills & higher ground of the North - but will ensure a rain fest for the southerners !

The best angle of attack for the south west is also from the SW not the North west-

Heres what your looking for....

 

[Daniel*]

Down she goes.. 

[jethro]

3 hours ago, 78/79 said:

I've seen it a few times, New Years Eve 78 , was a notable blizzard down here , a raw N/E wind all day. The snow started in the early evening , just as we were going out to the Kings Head  in Cheddar. When we came out about 1.am it was blowing a blizzard. New road from Axbridge into Cheddar was a corridor of snow where the diggers from Batts Coombe Quarry had piled it up. Feb 78 was a good one as well, as was Jan 82.

I was still living at home in the Cotswolds then, no shortage of snow around there - maybe a sign of the times as well as location. Winter of '81/'82 was epic, still by far the best snow I've ever experienced and it lasted for weeks. Heavenly. Down here, ( I think I moved here in 1997), the best snow event was Feb 2009 - don't know the synoptics responsible but we had a good foot of snow up here in the Mendips.

 

Fingers crossed we get a bite of the cherry this year, I know 2010 was considered to be a good winter but we got the cold with little snow, certainly nothing too memorable.

[jethro]

2 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

To get decent snow events in the south / South west -from atlantic systems there MUST be high pressure in situ over the North sea / towards Scandi- 

Sadly that element has been missing in recent years so 'sliding' lows have tended to arrive ( from the NW ) & over the North sea there has tended to be low pressure - so the slider system doesnt have any surface cold air feeding into it- 

It doesnt matter for hills & higher ground of the North - but will ensure a rain fest for the southerners !

The best angle of attack for the south west is also from the SW not the North west-

Heres what your looking for....

 

Thanks Steve and a big thank you for the picture. With the best will in the world, despite trying, my brain just shuts down when trying to take on board all the descriptions/analysis of the models - pictures I get.

[Smiler1709]

Best snow event for my neck of the woods was December 1st 2010, snowed from about 3pm right through to the following morning, remember getting the wife, kids and dogs out at 11pm knowing there would be no school next day, we built a huge snowman and went round nans to make sure she had everything, and heating was ok. About 8 inches fell and it was awesome. As Steve mentioned above, channel lows with a nice Scandinavian high do the trick. Fingers crossed we get something like that this year. Hope everyone is well. 

[lassie23]

Anyone else get the feeling that even with a weak Polar Vortex, cold air will still manage to dance around the UK thanks to the blocks never being in the correct position.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

27 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Anyone else get the feeling that even with a weak Polar Vortex, cold air will still manage to dance around the UK thanks to the blocks never being in the correct position.

yes I do