Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17

[SMU]

No lowland snow from now until ?.... end of march?

4.5 months / 18 weeks.

even in the worst 90s Winters theres always 1 / 2 events-- plus the overall state of the zonal wind means that at this stage the probability of what your saying is about 30/1. 

Everyone bar a few would hope your guess is wrong as 'most' would enjoy as many snow events as poss.

 

[lorenzo]

Think it's quite clear that winter is just beginning.

Just a thought

[ArHu3]

4 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

yes, only Nov though, still autumn, but tend to agree with your posts, welcome to 2000+ westerlies modeled all the way

then the straw clutching of the christmas pudding, 384 GFS chart may lead to a SSW, 240 ECM chart shows 6° max, and a NW'ly

The SSW is starting to show @196h, that is within the reliable range for stratosphere forecasting

[Gavin Hannah]

Im calling this... A blend of 2009 & 2010...  

Enjoy the winter! You heard it hear first!

[cheese]

20 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

No lowland snow from now until ?.... end of march?

4.5 months / 18 weeks.

even in the worst 90s Winters theres always 1 / 2 events-- plus the overall state of the zonal wind means that at this stage the probability of what your saying is about 30/1. 

Everyone bar a few would hope your guess is wrong as 'most' would enjoy as many snow events as poss.

 

Never been a winter here without snow. Even last winter had snow and that was pretty horrendous. We had snow on 29 April this year as a matter of fact. 

Crazy to think that there's only been about 6 months between first and last snowfall this year.. what is this, Scandinavia? 

Edited November 10, 2016 by cheese

[Weather-history]

On 9 November 2016 at 17:21, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I suspect this will be the only snow of the season for lowland Britain, though - models are now pushing anything other than zonality into the depths of F.I.

The worst winter I have experienced was 2013-14 and even  then I still saw snow at 20m or so above sea level.

There hasn't been a single winter that I didn't see snow and that is just the winter months. 

 

Edited November 10, 2016 by Weather-history

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

The worst winter I have experienced was 2013-14 and even  then I still saw snow at 20m or so above sea level.

There hasn't been a single winter that I didn't see snow and that is just the winter months. 

 

11 Feb? only date I saw lying snow, around 2cms, very heavy though but quick thaw

[Weather-history]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

11 Feb? only date I saw lying snow, around 2cms, very heavy though but quick thaw

Yes but just left a very patchy covering.

 

[Nick L]

13-14 was the only winter I have never seen lying snow, and I didn't see any falling snow either. An utterly dreadful excuse of a "winter".

[ArHu3]

5 minutes ago, Nick L said:

13-14 was the only winter I have never seen lying snow, and I didn't see any falling snow either. An utterly dreadful excuse of a "winter".

Lucky you 13-16 here where I live in Holland

[Norrance]

On 9 November 2016 at 17:21, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I suspect this will be the only snow of the season for lowland Britain, though - models are now pushing anything other than zonality into the depths of F.I.

Depends on your definition of lowland? My home town is 100 Mtrs asl  (though in a hilly area) and the lowest number of snow lying days in the last 40 years is 12.  Incidentally that was in a Winter that was not particularly mild but was dry; 2005/6 and most of the 12 snow days came in March that year.

I suspect that there will be snow in most lowland areas at some point this Winter.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

11 minutes ago, Norrance said:

Depends on your definition of lowland? My home town is 100 Mtrs asl  (though in a hilly area) and the lowest number of snow lying days in the last 40 years is 12.  Incidentally that was in a Winter that was not particularly mild but was dry; 2005/6 and most of the 12 snow days came in March that year.

I suspect that there will be snow in most lowland areas at some point this Winter.

Apologies for my vague terminology.  By "Lowland", I was thinking of areas south of the Pennines at an altitude of 100 metres or less.

[markyo]

I think the saying that best suits the current setup is "slowly,slowly catchy monkey". For cold the trend is still positive,no or very few milder options showing,patience is required!

[Man With Beard]

Well it's getting interesting. The PV refuses and refuses to form properly. In a normal year, under the current circumstances, it would start to become coherent. I just feel, more and more, that it isn't going to happen. 

As the result of a disorganised PV is arctic cold being slung around like a boomerang, I'm thinking we have as good a chance as ever of something spectacular in the next two months. 

If I had to bet on it, I'd say we will get at least two frozen weeks in the next eight. That's my guess right now. Get that sledge ready!

[Froze were the Days]

2013/14 and 2015/16 were both dreadful winters in fact terrible, from what I've seen with looking at the models and the background signals we ARE NOT expected to see a repeat of those. I've been following the CFS daily since early October and haven't hardly seen one 0z run show anything like a repeat of those so a bonus there but it still doesn't rule out an unsettled winter but cooler/colder in nature. Personally believe we'll see a good deal of MLB and a reasonable amount of benign weather.

[Ravelin]

40 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Well it's getting interesting. The PV refuses and refuses to form properly. In a normal year, under the current circumstances, it would start to become coherent. I just feel, more and more, that it isn't going to happen. 

I was just wondering that myself the other day, what if the vortex never gets organised? This is prime time for it to do so after all, can it get itself going later in the winter when it would normally be expected to be weakening? Interesting times.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

3 hours ago, Ravelin said:

I was just wondering that myself the other day, what if the vortex never gets organised? This is prime time for it to do so after all, can it get itself going later in the winter when it would normally be expected to be weakening? Interesting times.

IIRC, Ian Fergusson and Tamara have suggested that the vortex may become stronger during February thanks to the weak La Nina state, not that I understand the mechanism involved.

[markyo]

Snow before xmas nationwide? For the first time for several years there looks to be a "could be" creeping in to the overall view,next few weeks could be exceptionally interesting,long over due this level of consistency at the start of the season,MAY be one to remember.

[stainesbloke]

3 hours ago, markyo said:

Snow before xmas nationwide? For the first time for several years there looks to be a "could be" creeping in to the overall view,next few weeks could be exceptionally interesting,long over due this level of consistency at the start of the season,MAY be one to remember.

Yes agree with you, some very different atmospheric conditions this year which is interesting in itself. Of course, no guarantee of freezing cold and snow but perhaps more likely at least. Personally I hope it stays away over Christmas though, way too much drama involved in this country!

[hillbilly]

There is no doubt that weather changes pattern over time and at some point it will change again.The 70s,80s and 90s were littered with drought years notably 75,76,84,89,95 and 1996.Since then we have had almost nothing in the way of Drought.Back in the 90s the talk was of getting use to it and 'Meditteranean climate 'in the south.That may be a little where temperatures are concerned but not rainfall.I personally feel with some of the rainfall we have had in recent years this is about to change and with a relative dry autumn we may get a dry winter and set up a perfect 'Drought ' for 2017.Wether we get a severe spell this winter is a different matter but it certainly has a different feel about this autumn and we are well overdue a cold January and February.

[markyo]

11 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

Yes agree with you, some very different atmospheric conditions this year which is interesting in itself. Of course, no guarantee of freezing cold and snow but perhaps more likely at least. Personally I hope it stays away over Christmas though, way too much drama involved in this country!

Yep,just a cold spell at Christmas would be good,odd flurry but nothing to cause disruption,saying that in this country a flurry can do that! Looking like it could be a far far cry from last DEC 25th thankfully.

[Summer Sun]

Here is the last ECMWF Seasonal Model Forecast Interpretation from Gavin P possibly no more in the near feture

Coldest part of winter for the North, West and Central Europe early to mid winter

Then flipping around to southern and eastern Europe for the second half of winter becoming colder

North and west Europe becoming a bit milder for the 2nd half of winter

 

 

[SMU]

Evening All-

So a nice break away from the weather models has been relaxing - however we are now on the run in with just over 2 weeks to go to the start of winter- The halfway point of November has started to perhaps cement some thoughts of what this winter has instore for the UK.

Whats always very very difficult to pinpoint in seasonal forecasting is where the core of the height anomalies are going to be-

This troublesome issue is somewhat mediated in winters with a westerly / Zonal tone to them as often there is no height anomaly projected over the pole, just standard climo type weather - if anything December 15 was probably one of the easiest months to forecast as it was very heavily loaded towards an 'extreme' zonal jet from the super Nino we had at the time.

A negative height anomaly over the pole & some positives in the mid lattitudes gave us the framework for some very positive temperature values in terms of monthly departures from the norm- all of NW europe was steamrolled.

Its certainly safe to say that the flavour of 2016 is not in the same ballpark, infact taking Oct AO & an estimated AO value for Nov of -1 then we are probably looking at the inverse pattern setting up....

The difficult part is establishing whether we can make the jump from a 'blocky' type winter to a 'Significantly' blocked winter-- where the indexes are somewhat outside the norm..

For me a blocky winter is one where the UK experiences a higher frequency of snowfall & a 1 monthly CET below ave, AO / Values for one month in a range of -1/-2 however its not a super / historic Winter where more than one month is below ave ( ideally sub 3 or 1 individual month below 0c ) 

For 2016/17 winter ( as with anything ) its a very bold call forecasting something historic because in truth for this little patch of earth - Historic is not just all of the above its all of the above plus some luck of the alligment of the Cold air advection & the jet just keeping south of the UK- Also with the UK always on the periphery of the brutal continental air ( when it does happen ) the difference of 2/300 miles could see Europe shiver whilst we hold a milder SE flow-

So am I forecasting anything historic - ?NO...

What I do envisage is our very best opportunity since 1978/79 & 1981/82 of seeing a winter with 2 months below ave - with an outside chance of all 3.

What all the historic winters have in common are a broken vortex in November which doesnt recover - or at least doesnt recover until the majority of winter has been cold. 

A fragmented / broken / split vortex doesnt occur bery often - If we look at the mean heights for November over the pole we see this time of year we should see a solid vortex centred over the pole - all the way up through the height field -

Here is the 10MB mean-

It speaks for itself that the November AO index should be between the values of + 1 to + 2 & height anomalies would be very restricted to mid lattitudes- 

So when we have negative Novembers & within these negative months we have shorter episodes where the AO drops sub -2.5 then you know that the potential damage to the vortex is already done.

Here below is the 10MB height anomalies for November whereby the following winters had 'Significantly' negative AOs-

 

We can see that is the crucial element of whats to come early Winter.

November to date ( 2016 )

This is the mirror image of the historic years -  Also the remainder of the months forecast from the Albany strat site ( using GFS 00z means data ) doesnt just support the above anomalies but indicates the zonal wind will reverse which may well enhance the upper blocking over the pole-

 

So I guess I would sum it up like this -

The teleconnections ( QBO / Nina etc) will impact hemispheric flow however by far & above there influence is the fact that we have a broken vortex-

Therefor the Uk should remain optimistic about Winter with an 'element' of confidence that the blocking should come -

There will be a strong signal for central European Cold this year- departures circa 2-4 degrees below , that signal will become muted the further west you come towards the UK ( for the reasons mentioned above ) However its my opinion that Winter 2016 will be charactorised by the following-

* An anomalous storm track split & displaced from Iceland- with increased flow over Western Greenland & towards France

* Core cold anomalies centred over Central Europe -pushing West...

* Significant Polar Height anomalies- Greenland Based, they should be East based NAO 

* A High frequency of 2 even 3 wave patterns

* Higher than ave snowfall Frequency for the UK 

* A very very high chance of a below average month, underpinned by a 50/50 chance of 2 below average months.

Also some other notables- 

* If a 1962/63 Winter is a 100 year event then that gives it odds of ~ 100/1 ...I would slash them to 25/1 - ( obviously still an outside chance )

* A monthly CET sub zero occurs on ave every 20 years so thats about 60/1 - I would slash that to about 20/1

* A white xmas usually starts out for London @ 8/1 - I would punt that early as a 5-1 shot !!

So whether its a bit of fun betting of something a bit more scientific this Winter from my camp has a very high expectation level.....

S

Edited November 14, 2016 by Steve Murr

[Norrance]

I hope and also think that you are correct for this Winter Steve.

However I thought that all three months of 2009/10 were below average in the UK. They certainly were  up here.

[Snowboard Tennyson IOW]

Steve there Seems to be a potent storm tracking south on Sunday which is the dominant subject on the model thread - I recall similar lows taking a southerly track during our colder winters and causing problems as they stalled? And hung about for a bit.  They should suck a load of cold air with them too. Any thoughts?