Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17

[ArHu3]

On Saturday, October 01, 2016 at 18:09, lassie23 said:

Snow wise, it all depends on how much fog we get this October, no fog means no snow, it's old weather lore, but has been spot on here for the past three years.

The nice blocking weather we are having with clear skies which causes the fog later bring snow?

[Polar Maritime]

Snow showers pushing over the Caingorms here just now

Edited November 1, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[lassie23]

1 hour ago, ArHu3 said:

The nice blocking weather we are having with clear skies which causes the fog later bring snow?

Perfect for fog had four fogs in October, all at the end.

[Yarmy]

SCHNEEKATASTROPHE! 

 

 

Could happen.

[Rich_Clements]

5 hours ago, Seasonality said:

You mean this one? In answer to being questioned if the atlantic will break through in the foreseeable? Don't be a tease!

There is a newer post with a link to the met office thoughts of winter. I will not spoil the surprise.

Edited November 1, 2016 by Rich_Clements
More details

[Seasonality]

13 minutes ago, Rich_Clements said:

There is a newer post with a link to the met office thoughts of winter. I will not spoil the surprise.

In the words of George Takei. Oh my!

[Guest]

Having read it i do have to admit to allowing myself a little fist pump and yelp....

[Ravelin]

2 minutes ago, More Snow said:

Having read it i do have to admit to allowing myself a little fist pump and yelp....

I'd have preferred colder than average and wetter than average but it'll do. Lets just hope that the drier spells don't combine too much with the colder spells and the wetter spells with the milder spells or it could be a very frustrating search for snow.

[Guest]

Just now, Ravelin said:

I'd have preferred colder than average and wetter than average but it'll do. Lets just hope that the drier spells don't combine too much with the colder spells and the wetter spells with the milder spells or it could be a very frustrating search for snow.

Agreed but as we always say... get the cold in first then worry about the snow......

[Summer Sun]

John Hammond is live discussing the 3 month contingency planners forecast from the met office

 

 

Edited November 1, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Norrance]

2 hours ago, Ravelin said:

I'd have preferred colder than average and wetter than average but it'll do. Lets just hope that the drier spells don't combine too much with the colder spells and the wetter spells with the milder spells or it could be a very frustrating search for snow.

Where you are if the winds are Northerly or Easterly you should get precipitation. In Dec 2010 for example Eastern Scotland had pretty much average precipitation plus a wet last few days of November unlike much of the country and even better it nearly all fell as snow.

[Due South]

Great article by Joe B.  patriotpost.us/opinion/45666    Well worth a read

[Seasonality]

7 minutes ago, Due South said:

Great article by Joe B.  patriotpost.us/opinion/45666    Well worth a read

I'm sorry, but he just comes across as mad as a box of frogs. Anyone who flatly denies any anthropogenic contribution to climate change sits firmly in David Icke the Queen is a lizard tin foil hat territory.

[jonboy]

16 minutes ago, Due South said:

Great article by Joe B.  patriotpost.us/opinion/45666    Well worth a read

By the way Seasonality JB did not flatly deny anything he just feels that 99% is probably down to influences we have no control over and I for one agree totally but then I am as mad as a box of frogs!!!

[Weather-history]

43 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

John Hammond is live discussing the 3 month contingency planners forecast from the met office

 

 

Only 2013-14 and 2015-16 were very mild. Winter 2014-15 wasn't that mild and wasn't that wet nor stormy neither. 

Yet the way he is talking, you think we've had nothing but very mild stormy winters over the last few years.  

[Mountain Snow]

Would love to see a good old fashioned blizzard this year like we had in March 2013.

[Mapantz]

It's a good video that, makes a change to see the forecasters talking a bit more in-depth about it.

With the idea of questions being sent in, I thought .. yeah.. this should be good! And then someone had to do it, didn't they? "Will it snow in Manchester?" 

[Walsall Wood Snow]

5 hours ago, Ravelin said:

I'd have preferred colder than average and wetter than average but it'll do. Lets just hope that the drier spells don't combine too much with the colder spells and the wetter spells with the milder spells or it could be a very frustrating search for snow.

Actually I've heard that December 2010 was in the drier than average category despite all the snow. After all if you get a couple of good snowfalls but it clears up afterwards, as long as it's cold enough that snow will stick around for a while. In such a situation you would class it as a good snowy period even if snow didn't fall from the sky all that often. After all unlike rain which just drains away (with the exception of flooding in prone areas if it's long lasting and intense enough) snow being solid will stick to and stay on any surface it comes into contact with (as long as that surface is cold enough) and will only be moved by wind (if it's soft) human intervention (such as gritting and shovelling) and ultimately thawing. The point being dry doesn't necessarily mean snowless and as long as it's cold at the surface for an extended period even one day of snow within that period can transform the scenery into a Winter wonderland for some time.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Had I known that this was happening, I'd have sent-in a question regarding the unusual QBO situation of recent (quick flip to an easterly-based QBO before reverting to the previous, westerly pattern).

[Summer Sun]

3 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Actually I've heard that December 2010 was in the drier than average category despite all the snow.

2

Correct

"Less than a third of the average rainfall was recorded over most of Wales, western England and western Scotland. It was the driest December over the UK since 1963 and the third-driest in the 100-year series. It was the sunniest December in Northern Ireland, and the second-sunniest December in Scotland, in series from 1929. In contrast, it was a dull month in south-east England with less than 50% of average sunshine in some areas."

[I remember Atlantic 252]

7 hours ago, Ravelin said:

I'd have preferred colder than average and wetter than average but it'll do. Lets just hope that the drier spells don't combine too much with the colder spells and the wetter spells with the milder spells or it could be a very frustrating search for snow.

I think that's the way winter works! at least in England, dry spells are timed for cold, Wet means mild, otherwise snow would be easy, no novelty

[virtualsphere]

4 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Only 2013-14 and 2015-16 were very mild. Winter 2014-15 wasn't that mild and wasn't that wet nor stormy neither. 

Yet the way he is talking, you think we've had nothing but very mild stormy winters over the last few years.  

You're right about 2014-15 being rather average for temperature and rainfall, but worth noting 2013-14 and 2015-16 were incredibly wet as well as very mild - the two wettest on record for the UK as a whole and by some considerable margin.  I think 2015-16 was drier in England, but here in Wales it was our wettest winter on record since 1910, breaking the record set only a couple of years earlier.  December 2012 also felt very wet at the time, I think here it was the wettest since the 1990s.  We've not had a winter with below average rainfall since 2011, so I can sympathise with what John Hammond is saying - it definitely feels like we're due a dry one  

I remember thinking in 2011 or 2012 that we were overdue a stormy, wet winter after quite a few dry ones so these things do seem to come in cycles...  

[Seasonality]

9 hours ago, virtualsphere said:

You're right about 2014-15 being rather average for temperature and rainfall, but worth noting 2013-14 and 2015-16 were incredibly wet as well as very mild - the two wettest on record for the UK as a whole and by some considerable margin.  I think 2015-16 was drier in England, but here in Wales it was our wettest winter on record since 1910, breaking the record set only a couple of years earlier.  December 2012 also felt very wet at the time, I think here it was the wettest since the 1990s.  We've not had a winter with below average rainfall since 2011, so I can sympathise with what John Hammond is saying - it definitely feels like we're due a dry one  

I remember thinking in 2011 or 2012 that we were overdue a stormy, wet winter after quite a few dry ones so these things do seem to come in cycles...  

Not forgetting that 2014-15 was also notably sunny in England.

[mpkio2]

Well, it's 2nd of November (My B-Day! ), and already I can feel a difference in temps! And according to the modles, a colder N/E wind direction is currently predicted to be with us to at least mid-next week!

No need to be downcast yet, coldies! It's not even winter yet and already we're getting predictions like this!!!

Bring it ON!!!!

[Nouska]

On 26/10/2016 at 13:44, Nouska said:

Interesting tweet from Dr Ventrice.

New kid on the block model (NCAR CESM; recently added into the NMME suite) absolutely nailed the US Summer (JAS) forecast. Kudos to NCAR.

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/790640972212346880

I posted about this model way back in early autumn as it was showing 'unusual' things for winter season. Has since walked back on the early winter cold but very out of date since so much has been happening in the last month. Due a new run early next month so perhaps one to cast an eye over.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/model_monanom_body.shtml

Edit to add a bit of background on this model

http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/about/

Just an update on this new model now that October is on the record.

Actual surface temperature anomaly October 2016.

The images from the MME suite link here :-

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/archive/2016090800/current/tmp2m_Lead1.html

Now take a closer look at the 'new kid' on the block - the only one that comes anywhere near the massive negative anomalies over Asia.

It was so different to the others, I wonder if it is the fact that it incorporates the Arctic ice anomalies into the runs.