Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17

[I remember Atlantic 252]

7 hours ago, More Snow said:

i wonder how many times this will happen over the next 5 months lol

Jose mourinho!

[Matthew.]

Whether November will be the precursor or the deceiver October has cooled Europe down nicely.

[Seasonality]

8 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Whether November will be the precursor or the deceiver October has cooled Europe down nicely.

Indeed. Have a look at this graph for Warsaw showing recorded temperatures against the average. Apart from that spike early in the month it has been rather cool as you can see.

 

[Yarmy]

Although he does suggest elevated geomagnetic activity as a potential spoilsport in the follow-ups. 

[Ravelin]

My hopes for the winter are, as always, cold and snowy. I'll repeat what I've said the last couple of years, even with all the snow we had in 2009, 2010 etc I can't remember us having a decent blizzard. That's what I'd like if possible, one really good blizzard with plenty of snow and some good drifting. Seems like years since I've experienced that.

What do I expect though? Probably coloured by recent weather patterns, that I suppose are unlikely to hold through the winter, but I have the niggling feeling it'll be a colder than average winter, but also drier and less windy. That probably means less snow overall, but maybe a better chance of it falling and lying longer. I hope I'm wrong but I don't expect a particularly 'spectacular' winter from a coldies point of view.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

9 hours ago, Ravelin said:

My hopes for the winter are, as always, cold and snowy. I'll repeat what I've said the last couple of years, even with all the snow we had in 2009, 2010 etc I can't remember us having a decent blizzard. That's what I'd like if possible, one really good blizzard with plenty of snow and some good drifting. Seems like years since I've experienced that.

What do I expect though? Probably coloured by recent weather patterns, that I suppose are unlikely to hold through the winter, but I have the niggling feeling it'll be a colder than average winter, but also drier and less windy. That probably means less snow overall, but maybe a better chance of it falling and lying longer. I hope I'm wrong but I don't expect a particularly 'spectacular' winter from a coldies point of view.

Didn't you get any blizzards and drifting snow in March 2013? We did here, though the drifts weren't especially massive or anything, but there were a few around like on one side of our yard for example, though there were absolutely epic ones round other parts. I remember lying in bed at night with the snow falling in the howling wind was a great buzz. I was very shocked but pleasantly surprised when that spell occurred and it was very much akin to the snowy spells of old. Shame it was the last time we had any decent snow cover round here and feels like a really long time ago now. Let's hope Winter 2016/17 can redeliver such scenes for all of us again.

[Guest]

35 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Didn't you get any blizzards and drifting snow in March 2013? We did here, though the drifts weren't especially massive or anything, but there were a few around like on one side of our yard for example, though there were absolutely epic ones round other parts. I remember lying in bed at night with the snow falling in the howling wind was a great buzz. I was very shocked but pleasantly surprised when that spell occurred and it was very much akin to the snowy spells of old. Shame it was the last time we had any decent snow cover round here and feels like a really long time ago now. Let's hope Winter 2016/17 can redeliver such scenes for all of us again.

We had some massive drifts up here in the peak district roads blocked for days and we still had snow pilled up at the side of the roads for over a month after that event... the snow fell for nearly 3 days and the wind was howling and we had to be dug out of our house by the guy next door 3 days straight... then spent a day digging the drive out and a route to the village pub... it was brilliant...

[Essan]

I saw a snowdrift once.

think it was 1994...... 

And seriously, I have not seen one more than 2" deep since!

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

8 minutes ago, Essan said:

I saw a snowdrift once.

think it was 1994...... 

And seriously, I have not seen one more than 2" deep since!

Evashum for you buddy. I'm from redditch and me and my bro had snow events and by the time you get to evashum there's nothing more than a slushy mess. It's incredibly low ground. And guess where Iv just moved to? You guessed it ! Away from the Cotswolds and to a little village called dunnington so I fear I will feel your pain!

[Ravelin]

2 hours ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Didn't you get any blizzards and drifting snow in March 2013? We did here, though the drifts weren't especially massive or anything, but there were a few around like on one side of our yard for example, though there were absolutely epic ones round other parts. I remember lying in bed at night with the snow falling in the howling wind was a great buzz. I was very shocked but pleasantly surprised when that spell occurred and it was very much akin to the snowy spells of old. Shame it was the last time we had any decent snow cover round here and feels like a really long time ago now. Let's hope Winter 2016/17 can redeliver such scenes for all of us again.

Nope, we largely missed out on that snow and what we got was flat and level. We had tons of snow 2009 & 2010, sometimes so much that it was piled up 6ft high in the street, but by human intervention trying to keep driveways clear. It all came straight down when it fell. The last time I can remember decent sized drifts was in 2001 I think when I was living in Dunfermline. Again though I don't think there was much of a blizzard but it drifted high in places as the wind scoured the fields afterwards.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

1 hour ago, More Snow said:

We had some massive drifts up here in the peak district roads blocked for days and we still had snow pilled up at the side of the roads for over a month after that event... the snow fell for nearly 3 days and the wind was howling and we had to be dug out of our house by the guy next door 3 days straight... then spent a day digging the drive out and a route to the village pub... it was brilliant...

Sounds fantastic. I would love to have that much snow round here. Obviously been lower down and in a fairly built up area we didn't get it quite on that scale, but it was still quite deep with drifting and one the best snow events I can remember well, along with the deep but calmly settled snow of December 2010. Another event (or events) that occured round here which I unfortunately remember only very vaguely (been 5 at the time) was the snows of December 1990 and February 1991. I remember a fairly big drift round my Grandad's in the corner of the yard  (which is actually the house we live in now). I also vaguely remember in the house we lived in at the time my Dad having to dig the car out of the drive and really struggling to get it off there as well as a couple of images of playing in it in the back garden (I've actually got 3 photographs of me standing proudly next to a snowman that I built, and the snow in the scene still coming down somewhat looks absolutely amazing). Though I don't actually remember it happening at the time, during the snowy spell of February 1991 my Uncle died and my Mum has since described that the snow was so bad that the crescent we lived on was completely blocked off with the snow drifting over our front garden wall, and she had to struggle up to the main road to meet my Grandad who was with his local parish Vicar who drove him down in his Land Rover, in order to go and sign the death certificate. Though as I say I can hardly remember these spells, though based on the descriptions from my Mum and my own vague memories of the snow, those events were quite possibly the biggest snow events I've yet witnessed round here.

[Guest]

49 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Sounds fantastic. I would love to have that much snow round here. Obviously been lower down and in a fairly built up area we didn't get it quite on that scale, but it was still quite deep with drifting and one the best snow events I can remember well, along with the deep but calmly settled snow of December 2010. Another event (or events) that occured round here which I unfortunately remember only very vaguely (been 5 at the time) was the snows of December 1990 and February 1991. I remember a fairly big drift round my Grandad's in the corner of the yard  (which is actually the house we live in now). I also vaguely remember in the house we lived in at the time my Dad having to dig the car out of the drive and really struggling to get it off there as well as a couple of images of playing in it in the back garden (I've actually got 3 photographs of me standing proudly next to a snowman that I built, and the snow in the scene still coming down somewhat looks absolutely amazing). Though I don't actually remember it happening at the time, during the snowy spell of February 1991 my Uncle died and my Mum has since described that the snow was so bad that the crescent we lived on was completely blocked off with the snow drifting over our front garden wall, and she had to struggle up to the main road to meet my Grandad who was with his local parish Vicar who drove him down in his Land Rover, in order to go and sign the death certificate. Though as I say I can hardly remember these spells, though based on the descriptions from my Mum and my own vague memories of the snow, those events were quite possibly the biggest snow events I've yet witnessed round here.

it was by far the best snow ive ever seen... i was living in Penn Wolverhampton in 2010 and can remember the way the snow fell during that spell... very soft but very deep and very cold right up to boxing day...end of November 2010 was a good fall aswell... Feb 2012 was poor and thats when i decided to move the family up here to increase my chances of seeing more snow... if we dont get a good spell this winter we are off to Scotland lol... Wanlockhead is the highest village in Scotland so have got my eye on that place...lol

[Nouska]

Interesting tweet from Dr Ventrice.

New kid on the block model (NCAR CESM; recently added into the NMME suite) absolutely nailed the US Summer (JAS) forecast. Kudos to NCAR.

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/790640972212346880

I posted about this model way back in early autumn as it was showing 'unusual' things for winter season. Has since walked back on the early winter cold but very out of date since so much has been happening in the last month. Due a new run early next month so perhaps one to cast an eye over.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/model_monanom_body.shtml

Edit to add a bit of background on this model

http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/about/

 

 

Edited October 26, 2016 by Nouska

[Puddy Galore]

14 hours ago, More Snow said:

it was by far the best snow ive ever seen... i was living in Penn Wolverhampton in 2010 and can remember the way the snow fell during that spell... very soft but very deep and very cold right up to boxing day...end of November 2010 was a good fall aswell... Feb 2012 was poor and thats when i decided to move the family up here to increase my chances of seeing more snow... if we dont get a good spell this winter we are off to Scotland lol... Wanlockhead is the highest village in Scotland so have got my eye on that place...lol

I live in Penn, Wolverhampton, on the edge of the seven cornfields and the large farm adjacent to Penn Common.  I can vouch for that sentiment for 2010, it was wonderful!!  Looking out over the woods and fields from the top of my garden looked just like scenes from the chronicles of Narnia!!   Bring it on again I say!

[PompeyFC]

19 hours ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Evashum for you buddy. I'm from redditch and me and my bro had snow events and by the time you get to evashum there's nothing more than a slushy mess. It's incredibly low ground. And guess where Iv just moved to? You guessed it ! Away from the Cotswolds and to a little village called dunnington so I fear I will feel your pain!

Blimey I grew up in Redditch from 1974 to 1981 - saw some great snowfalls in that time up there that I remember 

[markyo]

Sorry,really not understanding the way folk are responding to the fluctuations in the model outputs,there is absolutely no point in posting wow look at the prospects for cold charts,then less than 12 to 18hr later posting wow look at possible prospects for warmth charts. Its the overview that's the point.the trend is the key and repeated posting of totally opposing model outputs just hours apart achieves nothing. Look at the movement of the output,not the twitching that occurs,in my view that makes sense....but as usual i could be wrong Main thing is though enjoy the watching and don't get to worked up if those model twitches don't go your way. Signs are good still for a proper winter,so much better than for a few years!

[Mucka]

6 months of Winter?

 

[Summer Sun]

Terry Scholey's thought's on winter

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html

[Don]

24 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Terry Scholey's thought's on winter

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html

Nowt to get too excited about if you're a coldie with his latest thoughts.  As ever though, we shall see.........

[Weather-history]

On 26 October 2016 at 21:41, Don said:

Nowt to get too excited about if you're a coldie with his latest thoughts.  As ever though, we shall see.........

As soon as he mentioned the Hale cycle, I switched off. Has anyone else notice how the Hale cycle seems to mysteriously started at 1894-95? 

He does it in that report, I have never seen a winter mentioned before 1894-95 being described as a Hale winter. Why? Because it is all vague before 1894. The "pattern" seems to only for after 1894. Never bought the Hale winter cycle idea.

Edited October 28, 2016 by Weather-history

[markyo]

May have to borrow the names used for bird watchers to describe some of the avid model watchers on this site. Twitchers would suit them well,jumping on every none cold/colder chart with a sense of doom!! Pattern is the key and the pattern however you look at it is cold/colder setup as of now. Prozac manufacturers must be ramping up production to cope at this rate!

[lassie23]

I think the Atlantic will eventually wake up........in April

[Essex snowman]

14 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

I think the Atlantic will eventually wake up........in April

I just seen on model thread couple posters saying blocked pattern has vanished overnight on model runs typical for uk looked so good for this winter :-( 

[knocker]

The vortex has a nice shape to it this morning

[I remember Atlantic 252]

45 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

I think the Atlantic will eventually wake up........in April

fearing the worst, think we'll have to pay for this dry/settled weather, Atlantic to wake up late Nov, leading to one of wettest ever December's, who knows winter like '13-'14, homes flooded for Xmas, always seems to even out, some places maybe had one of driest 0ctobers