Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17

[Seasonality]

13 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

I think there is a link between weak zonal novembers providing ammunition for a weaker vortex going into winter though. 

Of course there could be. Steve Murr made an interesting post on this recently. I think the sample of years he examined was too small but there may well be a correlation.

[Weather-history]

1 hour ago, Matthew Wilson said:

I think there is a link between weak zonal novembers providing ammunition for a weaker vortex going into winter though. 

Doesn't weak zonal Novembers mean the polar vortex is weaker or displaced anyway at that point? 

Also aren't you more like to see a sub 5.5C CET November with a weaker zonal set up? Therefore shouldn't you want a more zonal November going off your earlier point? 

[bobbydog]

3 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Does anyone know who is doing the winter forecast this year please?

I believe Matt Hugo and Lorenzo are doing it this year as Chiono is too busy with work etc.

[Matthew.]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

Doesn't weak zonal Novembers mean the polar vortex is weaker or displaced anyway at that point? 

Also aren't you more like to see a sub 5.5C CET November with a weaker zonal set up? Therefore shouldn't you want a more zonal November going off your earlier point? 

I suppose its how zonal is defined. I think of zonal as unsettled/stormy. Whereas weak zonal as changeable which would give more average conditions. To get a month of 5.5c it would have a larger degree of easterly/northerly component which going off the earlier theory mentioned could strengthen the vortex at this critical point.

[markyo]

Basically i feel the pointers for a colder than average winter are now strong,no sign of any organised PV,marked lack of Atlantic influence,more northern blocking than seen the last few years and consistent blocking at that.Early yet but the next 4 to 5 weeks will be hugely enjoyable watching,twists and turns but fingers crossed dare i say it a proper winter? We shall see,patience patience is know the word,it could be interesting.

[iapennell]

On 10/18/2016 at 21:28, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

trouble is, I tend to, if they are showing mild

I tend to use the charts along with my own understanding of the large-scale meteorological influences on our weather (and how anomalous sea-surface temperatures, where these are and macro-scale influences like the QBO) to gain an insight into what it is liable to do in the next fortnight to a month. Further into the future I take less notice of models and go with what long-range outlooks based on macro-scale temperature, pressure and wind would suggest.

I like cold winters, myself. However if sea-surface temperatures are well above normal around Britain going into winter, warm seas in high-latitudes north of Britain are in place to fuel winter storms when strong baroclinic gradients get established over them and the Quasi Biennial Oscillation is Westerly I would not predict a cold winter, not even when there is extensive snow-cover early in the season over Russia (as is currently the case). Warmer than normal seas around Britain would have a warming effect on any cold airstream trying to reach Britain (as one might note from the moderating effect of the North Sea on easterly winds crossing it recently). The Quasi Biennial Oscillation (wind-patterns high over the Equator) also gives a strong hint of what to expect in a few month's time over Britain. Average speed and direction for September 2016 was 10 metres per second, Westerly at 30 mb over the Equator [If it was 20 metres per second, Easterly (as sometimes has happened in the past) I would be a lot more optimistic about prospects for cold in the coming winter; sadly that is not so].

The increased snow-cover over Russia this month ought to give grounds for hope; however if the Circumpolar vortex strengthens (due, perhaps, the westerly QBO) a strong cold-air high may well form over Siberia (due to increased snow-cover reflecting the little solar input and enhancing seasonal cooling there), but a strong Atlantic flow could still prevent this high pushing westwards and bringing very cold air to western Europe. I don't think the North Atlantic flow will be as strong as last winter but with the current macro-scale developments I cannot see how we are going to get more than a week or so of frigid Russian airstreams and I cannot see them being very cold over Britain if (as seems likely) North Sea temperatures remain warmer than normal through the winter months.

If you want a Winter to go by, then I would suggest 2004/2005 but with a somewhat colder and drier January than occurred that winter. We waited until February before a blocking-high over the far North Atlantic delivered a week of strong bitter easterly winds and blizzard conditions over much of the country; the earlier part of that winter was (as some of you may recall) was mild although a number of locations in England had a White Christmas.

[damianslaw]

I think there is a strong correlation between Novembers with strong heights over scandi holding the atlantic at bay being followed by colder or average at best winters. Nov 09 whilst very wet, saw the atlantic come unstuck against the block resulting in long draw southerly/sw airstream, Nov 2010 the opposite in some respects with the high to the NE gaining the upper hand kicking the atlantic aside. Nov 95 another one with strong heights in vicinity of scandi, Nov 78 another good example, Nov 85 another one.. So keep an eye on how strong heights become to the NE.

 

[Nouska]

14 minutes ago, iapennell said:

However if sea-surface temperatures are well above normal around Britain going into winter, warm seas in high-latitudes north of Britain are in place to fuel winter storms when strong baroclinic gradients get established over them and the Quasi Biennial Oscillation is Westerly I would not predict a cold winter, not even when there is extensive snow-cover early in the season over Russia (as is currently the case). Warmer than normal seas around Britain would have a warming effect on any cold airstream trying to reach Britain (as one might note from the moderating effect of the North Sea on easterly winds crossing it recently). The Quasi Biennial Oscillation (wind-patterns high over the Equator) also gives a strong hint of what to expect in a few month's time over Britain

From the perspective of traditional climatology, you have a valid point but consider this SSTA map for 1st November 2010, QBO in a westerly phase ...

   

Summer transition from El Nino to weak La Nina by late autumn ....

What would you have been forecasting for the first month of winter 2010-2011?

[Matthew.]

17 minutes ago, iapennell said:

I tend to use the charts along with my own understanding of the large-scale meteorological influences on our weather (and how anomalous sea-surface temperatures, where these are and macro-scale influences like the QBO) to gain an insight into what it is liable to do in the next fortnight to a month. Further into the future I take less notice of models and go with what long-range outlooks based on macro-scale temperature, pressure and wind would suggest.

I like cold winters, myself. However if sea-surface temperatures are well above normal around Britain going into winter, warm seas in high-latitudes north of Britain are in place to fuel winter storms when strong baroclinic gradients get established over them and the Quasi Biennial Oscillation is Westerly I would not predict a cold winter, not even when there is extensive snow-cover early in the season over Russia (as is currently the case). Warmer than normal seas around Britain would have a warming effect on any cold airstream trying to reach Britain (as one might note from the moderating effect of the North Sea on easterly winds crossing it recently). The Quasi Biennial Oscillation (wind-patterns high over the Equator) also gives a strong hint of what to expect in a few month's time over Britain. Average speed and direction for September 2016 was 10 metres per second, Westerly at 30 mb over the Equator [If it was 20 metres per second, Easterly (as sometimes has happened in the past) I would be a lot more optimistic about prospects for cold in the coming winter; sadly that is not so].

The increased snow-cover over Russia this month ought to give grounds for hope; however if the Circumpolar vortex strengthens (due, perhaps, the westerly QBO) a strong cold-air high may well form over Siberia (due to increased snow-cover reflecting the little solar input and enhancing seasonal cooling there), but a strong Atlantic flow could still prevent this high pushing westwards and bringing very cold air to western Europe. I don't think the North Atlantic flow will be as strong as last winter but with the current macro-scale developments I cannot see how we are going to get more than a week or so of frigid Russian airstreams and I cannot see them being very cold over Britain if (as seems likely) North Sea temperatures remain warmer than normal through the winter months.

If you want a Winter to go by, then I would suggest 2004/2005 but with a somewhat colder and drier January than occurred that winter. We waited until February before a blocking-high over the far North Atlantic delivered a week of strong bitter easterly winds and blizzard conditions over much of the country; the earlier part of that winter was (as some of you may recall) was mild although a number of locations in England had a White Christmas.

Really looking forward to how the winter season works outyou could be right Ian and we could have the cold in November. The old saying ice and snow in November means a MILD winter. Then again that could be all nonsense and we're in for the big freeze! Whatever the case it's nice to see a different pattern than the norm at this time of year! If we have a winter like 78/79 Netweather will crash I think. Finally it has to be said there's a lot of excitement reading through the forecast threads here.

[Frost HoIIow]

14 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Really looking forward to how the winter season works outyou could be right Ian and we could have the cold in November. The old saying ice and snow in November means a MILD winter. Then again that could be all nonsense and we're in for the big freeze! Whatever the case it's nice to see a different pattern than the norm at this time of year! If we have a winter like 78/79 Netweather will crash I think. Finally it has to be said there's a lot of excitement reading through the forecast threads here.

Not so sure about the "November ice bear a duck the rest of Winter will be muck" thing, might have some meaning to it as after late Nov/Dec 2010 the next 2 months were mediocre, February 2011 was very mild and felt Spring like, though I suppose it would be hard to match earlier in that Winter!

But I would still take snow in November, hell I would take it anytime of year!

Edited October 21, 2016 by Frost HoIIow

[Matthew.]

9 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Not so sure about the "November ice bear a duck the rest of Winter will be muck" thing, might have some meaning to it as after late Nov/Dec 2010 the next 2 months were mediocre, February 2011 was very mild and felt Spring like, though I suppose it would be hard to match earlier in that Winter!

But I would still take snow in November, hell I would take it anytime of year!

I've heard reports of a possible cold start to November so it may not be long till the first snow this year We haven't had many cold Novembers in recent times. I have a feeling it's all about November this year. I hope I'm wrong!

[Wilxy]

25 minutes ago, Nouska said:

From the perspective of traditional climatology, you have a valid point but consider this SSTA map for 1st November 2010, QBO in a westerly phase ...

   

Summer transition from El Nino to weak La Nina by late autumn ....

What would you have been forecasting for the first month of winter 2010-2011?

What about the warmer waters south of Greenland no tripole this year though so its a tad different to me? 

[Matthew.]

Just now, tomjwlx said:

What about the warmer waters south of Greenland no tripole this year though so its a tad different to me? 

Them cold SSTs across the NE Pacific are striking though. PDO I think it relates to. Different these last few years by how warm it's been in that region!

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Not so sure about the "November ice bear a duck the rest of Winter will be muck" thing, might have some meaning to it as after late Nov/Dec 2010 the next 2 months were mediocre, February 2011 was very mild and felt Spring like, though I suppose it would be hard to match earlier in that Winter!

But I would still take snow in November, hell I would take it anytime of year!

November 1985 a good example of a cold snowy one followed by a very mild wet Dec, but then a freezing Feb. Nov 88 saw some early snow and cold but was followed by 3 very mild winter months. Nov 09 very mild and very wet followed by 3 cold winter months. Nov 93 cold and snowy,average winter thereafter. Nov 05 cold second half and average winter. Nov 78 mild and sunny very cold winter followed. No real pattern. I think its more about what synoptics delivered the cold in November. High pressure overhead perhaps not such a good omen, strong heights to the east more so..

[hillbilly]

A cold November and mild winter??

I believe November 1985 is the coldest in the last 90 years which then gave us the coldest following february[or any month] in the last 52 years.While digging i did notice 5 novembers in the 15 years from 1910 all colder than any since 1925 !

[irishlad69]

i find it interesting that people sill seem to think that computer models can predict the weather and what cold months followed by warm months or a warm month followed by cold months, if we look hard enough we will always find scenarios that we want to find but it does not mean anything really. Mother nature will always do what she wants regardless of what the computer says or what warm or cold months there is.

My personal view is that two major factors predict what type of weather we will have and that's Sunspot numbers and the North Atlantic Current, and this year i believe we will have a cold winter but not so sure about how much snow.

 

I have read that a scientist has predicted that the sun is not only declining in sunspot numbers but is also cooling and we could be in another ice age within 15-20 years, interesting.

[Nouska]

JMA seasonal update - quite strong signal for high latitude blocking to be in evidence December and January.

Dec         Jan  

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/index.html

 

[Hocus Pocus]

17 hours ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Them cold SSTs across the NE Pacific are striking though. PDO I think it relates to. Different these last few years by how warm it's been in that region!

That for me is what's been driving the last few years winters weather here allowing for a very cold set up over the eastern seaboard of the states which in turn has fuelled the jet to race across the Atlantic  one after another. Will this year break the trend?

Edited October 22, 2016 by Hocus Pocus

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

24 minutes ago, Hocus Pocus said:

That for me is what's been driving the last few years winters weather here allowing for a very cold set up over the eastern seaboard of the states which in turn has fuelled the jet to race across the Atlantic  one after another. Will this year break the trend?

I feel this has definitely had implications on the milder winters over the past few years. I hope to see the eastern seaboard stay relatively warm as this means less fuel to power the jet stream (less temperature differentiation over a short distance). 

What is also promising is getting stagnant cold air over Scandinavia set in stone. I remember during the horror show of a winter of 2013/14, there was a continuous blast of southwesterly gales that sent all the real cold well and truly confined to eastern Siberia. Even western Russia had an exceptional winter of above average temperatures. I certainly don't think we will see the likes of that happening this time. Low solar activity is also a good thing to see. 

[Matthew.]

37 minutes ago, Hocus Pocus said:

That for me is what's been driving the last few years winters weather here allowing for a very cold set up over the eastern seaboard of the states which in turn has fuelled the jet to race across the Atlantic  one after another. Will this year break the trend?

I wonder how much of a role it plays? I would have thought if we get enough of the other cards this 1 might be diluted. At the moment Low pressure has been quite active in the NE Pac which I would have thought is quite unusual maybe? Here's the latest SST:

I wonder if that cold pool near the NE is making a temp gradient adding energy for cyclones. Someone mentioned earlier about a much more active circulation at the moment in the Southern Hemisphere.

Edited October 22, 2016 by Matthew Wilson

[knocker]

5 hours ago, irishlad69 said:

i find it interesting that people sill seem to think that computer models can predict the weather and what cold months followed by warm months or a warm month followed by cold months, if we look hard enough we will always find scenarios that we want to find but it does not mean anything really. Mother nature will always do what she wants regardless of what the computer says or what warm or cold months there is.

My personal view is that two major factors predict what type of weather we will have and that's Sunspot numbers and the North Atlantic Current, and this year i believe we will have a cold winter but not so sure about how much snow.

 

I have read that a scientist has predicted that the sun is not only declining in sunspot numbers but is also cooling and we could be in another ice age within 15-20 years, interesting.

I think you will find that his contract with the Express has since been terminated.

[NeilN]

I vaguely remember November 1993, it snowed on my ninth birthday! I remember the following day we were told school was shut. I don't know whether it's just me but I remember after Christmas that day (around 27th / 28th) it snowed heavily. My Dad went to a Birmingham City v West Brom game and cleared all the snow off the pitch with other fans. My Mum's cat was murdered by a vicious dog we had and I just remember my Mum being upset and I was just playing with my sister in the garden in the snow.

 

Has there ever been a winter where November to March or even November to February have delivered with cold wall to wall with the odd mild interlude? 

[Hotspur62]

After 3 mild winters on the trot i am hoping for a more seasonal winter with at least average or maybe below average temperatures this winter. I think there are encouraging signs if you like cold that this winter may provide some nice frost and snow and looking at the model Thread there are even signs of a cold snap/spell evolving as early as 1st/2nd November!!.Personally, i am enjoying this quiet spell of Autumnal weather and from a purely selfish pov as i work outside for a living i would prefer this spell of weather to continue for next 2/3 weeks.If we did get snow in early November it wouldnt hang around for long as the ground needs to cool down considerably.This was the case in November 2010 when it got progressively colder from mid November and really from about 26th November and we all know what happened for the next 4 weeks thereafter.I just hope that this winter we have a number of snow events which will make probably 90% of forum members happy as i love the buzz and excitement SNOW brings-I think it brings the kid out in most of us if i am being honest.

My gut feeling and my looking at analogue years and basic knowledge of weather patterns gives me real hope that this winter will provide at least one decent cold spell(by that i mean a 7-10 real cold spell with snow and freezing temps) and this would be a vast improvement on the last 3 years!!.To get another December 2010 is imo highly unlikely but we can all dream..Either way i am going to sit back and read all the threads over the next 5 months and enjoy the comments from the experts and the regulars as i have really learnt an awful lot over the last 4 years since i joined the NW Community and i thank everyone who has helped me along the way  

[Snowyowl9]

November 1993 gave a bitter easterly not much snow but severe frosts,until the end of November 2010 which was a shock to the system with the coldest end temps on record yes it can happen,theres always hope.

[SMU]

 

 

Evening -

Well just a minor update -

After a bit of a rollercoaster for the models last week the prospects of more 'unseasonal' blocking continues to tease us like one of the old 1p ' look what the butler saw reels' - lets hope our money doesnt run out when we get to December !!!

We have seen a very sedated vortex early doors this year & as highlighted before October is knocking on the door of a 66 year record - IE the -AO. Whilst perhaps its not a significant record for the UK - in the bigger picture, especially Up past 60N - This is a significant record. It shows a very disjointed & fragmented Vortex.

The record for the month is -1.5 & he were are at the 22nd -

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml

I would say -2 by the 25th is a realistic figure & with a significant trend across today from the 00z ( used for the AO ) to the 12z has been all 1 way..- building a bigger block.
So based on this I think the landing zone will be around -2.25. A record breaker & the only October in history sub -2.


As said - 1 swallow doesnt make a Summer, however today we have seen that potentially for the opener to November the AO/NAO is ramped !

The models are reacting to the overall ensemble mean around that all important 60N zonal wind - This is basically the end result of all the feedbacks fed upwards & downwards into the atmosphere.
I need to go a check what constitutes what speed represents a negative zonal wind however we may be close after todays modelling -

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa.png

This is significant dropping below 1 standard deviation from Climotology - & with a double dip - the possibility of dropping past 2.

The strat is also reflecting a split now at day 7 - which is very very different to the October mean

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/nh_strat/nh_stanom.php

Anyway, more strat features come online for November - from the Berlin site. Which will give us a clearer picture-

So - in a nutshell we are in the best possible place we could ever be on the entry to November. 

Also PS - as regards svalbard snowcover,I agree with a post above- the recent october Blocking tendancies have put Svalbard in almost exactly the wrong position for October snow with all the cold going to the East & south of that locale ... for them the Oct snow has almost been wiped off the map in a matter if years !

Cheers