Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17

[Captain Shortwave]

36 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Met Office research increases skill in predicting winter outlook

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2016/winter-forecast-skill?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Well even if December is the 2nd warmest on record then this forecast would be correct 

[markyo]

I think we can safely say the roller coaster has begun,grown men and women reverting back to their childhood state of excitement with just the hint of snow or cold crisp weather on the horizon. Nothing wrong with that though,the magic of opening those curtains to nature showing off with a surprise would bring the kid out in anybody!! Patience is the key now,very early days,long,long way to go.

[cheeky_monkey]

18 hours ago, markyo said:

I think we can safely say the roller coaster has begun,grown men and women reverting back to their childhood state of excitement with just the hint of snow or cold crisp weather on the horizon. Nothing wrong with that though,the magic of opening those curtains to nature showing off with a surprise would bring the kid out in anybody!! Patience is the key now,very early days,long,long way to go.

I can think of numerous better things I wouldn't mind seeing when I open those curtains

[markyo]

5 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

I can think of numerous better things I wouldn't mind seeing when I open those curtains

I agree,but the Dallas cheerleaders may be a bit expensive to ship over to the uk i fear!!

[Polar Maritime]

Grey Corries have had a dusting today on Nevis Range ☺

Edited October 18, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[DAVID SNOW]

My hope for  the winter would be, that peeps don't take ANY 384 hour chart from the GFS , too seriously .

[I remember Atlantic 252]

9 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

My hope for  the winter would be, that peeps don't take ANY 384 hour chart from the GFS , too seriously .

trouble is, I tend to, if they are showing mild

[Seasonality]

12 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

My hope for  the winter would be, that peeps don't take ANY 384 hour chart from the GFS , too seriously .

Or that anyone posts 384 mean charts when the ensembles are spread like a spilled pot of noodles and expects us to take them seriously.

[markyo]

The B word is very much still in the equation,vastly more than in the last few years. Just need that perfect combination of factors to align,early,early days,it will change daily but as always its the trend we need to look for. Don't forget finding proper cold in the uk is so much harder that warmth/heat but when it does arrive many revert to shall we say their less more mature years! 

[jvenge]

Further update by Accuweather - http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/uk-winter-forecast-damaging-windstorms-to-lash-hard-hit-areas-northern-england/60531022

They seem quite bullish on a stormy winter for the UK again. The interesting aspect is it really isn't inline with what current model output shows, or the seasonal ones.

Edited October 20, 2016 by jvenge

[Seasonality]

23 minutes ago, jvenge said:

Further update by Accuweather - http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/uk-winter-forecast-damaging-windstorms-to-lash-hard-hit-areas-northern-england/60531022

They seem quite bullish on a stormy winter for the UK again. The interesting aspect is it really isn't inline with what current model output shows, or the seasonal ones.

I wouldn't put too much stead in Crappuweather. I mean seriously, somehow both warm spells and seven days of snow in London throughout the winter. Certainly possible, but just doesn't seem right to me when all of the NWP and atmospheric states are taken into account.

[lassie23]

I'm hoping that my October Fog Index theory goes tights up this winter, as yet again I have had zero fog this month which usually means another snow less winter if you believe in weather lore, it has been correct the past three winters.

[mpkio2]

44 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

I'm hoping that my October Fog Index theory goes tights up this winter, as yet again I have had zero fog this month which usually means another snow less winter if you believe in weather lore, it has been correct the past three winters.

If the GFS is anything to go by, you migth still see fog this October! High Pressure is espected to be sitting right over the UK which promotes cold and foggy nights (You might be sleeping so you might not see it). Also, High Pressure has been all over the UK this October.

[MP-R]

I'm wondering if only having had one morning of fog so far is better than last year which had quite a bit more fog in October. Also had fog a few times in the first half of October 2013. Look how the following winters turned out. October 2014 on the other hand was fogless here the winter 2014/2015 was much better.

Can't say I hold the October fog rule in high regard.

[Seasonality]

50 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

I'm hoping that my October Fog Index theory goes tights up this winter, as yet again I have had zero fog this month which usually means another snow less winter if you believe in weather lore, it has been correct the past three winters.

Has anyone else ever reported this phenomenon? Is there any historical data? It seems quite arbitrary and based on three years alone to be of little use.

[lassie23]

3 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Has anyone else ever reported this phenomenon? Is there any historical data? It seems quite arbitrary and based on three years alone to be of little use.

LOL It's just weatherlore that farmers used, I made up the october fog index bit

[Seasonality]

30 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

LOL It's just weatherlore that farmers used, I made up the october fog index bit

Ah, ok. Kind of like the silly one about lots of berries on the bushes. People still trot that one out despite the fact that it is plain that the yield of berries is based on the weather preceding them being ready to pick, not months into the future.

[lassie23]

Just now, Seasonality said:

Ah, ok. Kind of like the silly one about lots of berries on the bushes. People still trot that one out despite the fact that it is plain that the yield of berries is based on the weather preceding them being ready to pick, not months into the future.

Yup that berry one doesn't work for sure.

[mountain shadow]

NOAA going for above average temperatures on the US East coast with La Nina expected to influence early Winter. 

I'm hoping that might indicate WAA in the Western Atlantic 

[DAVID SNOW]

4 hours ago, lassie23 said:

Yup that berry one doesn't work for sure.

Waxwings and Grebes do though............

[stewfox]

Having looked at the forecast written 18 oct 2010 for 2010/11 winter I'm am not going to get too drawn into will it wont it just yet. ie nobody saw the 2nd coldest Dec back in October. 

Model sees average or slightly colder than average temperatures 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=winter-forecast;sess=

[Matthew.]

I think if November ends up being below 5.5c mean CET that will be our winter. Depends how it falls but would be better to see a 7c November IMO.

Edited October 21, 2016 by Matthew Wilson

[feb1991blizzard]

Does anyone know who is doing the winter forecast this year please?

[Seasonality]

1 hour ago, Matthew Wilson said:

I think if November ends up being below 5.5c mean CET that will be our winter. Depends how it falls but would be better to see a 7c November IMO.

Easy to be concerned, but the weather doesn't work using a quota system. You can't just use up a particular condition one month and it is a given that it won't occur the next month, the chaos of the world's weather isn't so easily explainable in such a reductive statement.

[Matthew.]

1 hour ago, Seasonality said:

Easy to be concerned, but the weather doesn't work using a quota system. You can't just use up a particular condition one month and it is a given that it won't occur the next month, the chaos of the world's weather isn't so easily explainable in such a reductive statement.

I think there is a link between weak zonal novembers providing ammunition for a weaker vortex going into winter though.