Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17

[Weather-history]

The equivalent effect of last winter's "torpedo"

[Frost HoIIow]

Well we normally get *at least* 1 measurable snow fall here even in poor Winters. Had 3 measurable snows this year but the 2nd one (and heaviest) was in early March so doesn't count as Winter unless one takes astronomical Winter into consideration, then we had about a cm or 2 in late April. Worst Winter I can remember around here was early 2014 when we only got a dusting one evening in the February which was practically gone when I got up the next morning - pathetic "Winter" that was. Hope I don't experience one like that again! Because of that dreadful Winter it seemed like we had to wait ages for a decent covering which thankfully arrived the next Winter. Anyway for this Winter if we get at least one decent snow fall then I will be happy. Anything more would be a bonus.

Edited October 12, 2016 by Frost HoIIow

[jvenge]

Only a few decent snow events here last year. Was cold at other times, though.

 

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Well we normally get *at least* 1 measurable snow fall here even in poor Winters. Had 3 measurable snows this year but the 2nd one (and heaviest) was in early March so doesn't count as Winter unless one takes astronomical Winter into consideration, then we had about a cm or 2 in late April. Worst Winter I can remember around here was early 2014 when we only got a dusting one evening in the February which was practically gone when I got up the next morning - pathetic "Winter" that was. Hope I don't experience one like that again! Because of that dreadful Winter it seemed like we had to wait ages for a decent covering which thankfully arrived the next Winter. Anyway for this Winter if we get at least one decent snow fall then I will be happy. Anything more would be a bonus.

Yes winter 13/14 was virtually snowless here as well. Just one day with snowfall on the 31 Jan, and it was a very shortlived affair, very wet in consistency and it barely settled, within 2 hours it melted. A woeful winter. Even high ground up to around 600 metres struggled to see any snow cover, though above 700 metres it was preety decent thanks to the incessant bouts of precipitation and temps just about at the right level for snowfall. At least last winter delivered a morning with decent snow cover on the 17 Jan, and a couple of snowfalls. We too had a surprise wet snowfall in late April.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

last winter 16/17th Jan definitely was although archive charts do not look snowy? heavy snow shower on 6th March, and sleety wet snow late Apr

[snoangel]

No snow here for aaaagggeesss, not even a flake.

Last snow I saw was when I went to Canada... 18 months ago!  Nothing here for the last 2 years +

I'm moving to the north downs on Friday so I'm quietly hopeful my snow chances will increase... although also want it to be mild for a week or two as the new house doesn't have any heating yet! ❄️

[Radiating Dendrite]

8 hours ago, snoangel said:

No snow here for aaaagggeesss, not even a flake.

Last snow I saw was when I went to Canada... 18 months ago!  Nothing here for the last 2 years +

I'm moving to the north downs on Friday so I'm quietly hopeful my snow chances will increase... although also want it to be mild for a week or two as the new house doesn't have any heating yet! ❄️

I live in the North Downs and it is still fairly rubbish for snow. You get better shower activity in Kent than we do. We saw snow in the 17th Jan; but it was literally a 2cm job that had melted by mid morning. 

[Lettucing Gutted]

14 hours ago, Nick L said:

I look forward to the chronic misuse of the term "shortwave"

"If only it was June/July/August/summer"

"If only it was December/January/February/Winter"

"Wait and see"

"Downgrade"

"Egg on faces"

[Nouska]

Now that the model runs go out to the end of the month - this October should be a good test for the Taymyr theory - this is the concept of high heights in the region, through all layers of the troposphere, promoting a continuing winter negative AO.

October so far ...

500mb 100mb

Looking at forecasts, this pattern should remain dominant throughout the rest of the month.

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.3968/abstract

 

Edited October 15, 2016 by Nouska

[Daniel*]

Mmm this looks quite good to me from ECMWF seasonal model through inference I'd expect regions of high pressure to the north/northwest reflecting those suppressed precipitation anomalies - not seeing a winter characterised by zonality. The Med is also quite wet indicative of a southerly tracking jet stream - certainly no euro slug. Good stuff for fellow coldies. If we're still in the same position by November I'd say game on. 

[markyo]

Looking at the situation as it stands,those threads that need to knit together to give us a proper winter are increasing,first time in a few years,as always caution but as the clock ticks by the trend for a cooler if not cold season is on the cards. We can live in hope...a proper winter at last??! Little bit for everybody

[I remember Atlantic 252]

just want no 'torpedoes' this year! got on my nerves last year waiting for it, assume it never arrived? unless it was from the Atlantic gales and rain!

[SMU]

Evening All-

 

So I thought I would just expand on Rogers review of hoping October would hold some relevance into the Winter Months- the overwhelming data since 1950 is that there is very little to suggest that there's any significant correlation, thats because for as many months you find Negative from an AO perspective correlating into Winter, you can find as many positive ones that tip the balance- This certainly fits to the zone (-1 < to >+1) AO

However in more recent October years circa 2001 onward the height profiles over the pole ( relating to the rapid loss of ice & subsequent change in feed-backs) have become more extreme & amplified - From 2001-2016 there have been 2 months below -1.5 AO (2009 + 12) & one rounded to 1.5 ( 2002 ) -  so 50 years with zero & then 16 with 3... whilst being a small sample size seems 'fairly' significant & outside the boundary of what you would label 'fluctuations' -

Adding more meat to the bones & trying to link this into Winter is the following--

The X2 record breaking Octobers for Negative AO are 2009 ( -1.54) & 2012 ( -1.51 ) - Below are the AO values for DJF

2009 -  Dec -3.4 ** ( record Breaking in 66 years ) Jan -2.58 ( 6th lowest in 66 years ) Feb -4,26 ( Record Breaking in 66 years )

2012 -  Dec -1.74  Jan -0.6 Feb -1.00                 +   March -3.185 ( record Breaking in 66 years )

So - Co-incidental ??? I doubt it, 3 record breaking negative AO months in Winters ( March INC ) following the record breaking Negative AO's in October.....

2002 -  Dec -1.59  Jan -0.47 Feb +0.12 -   

Thats a pretty good hit rate for the 3 record months -  9/10 negative AOs & The December / Feb & March records Smashed.

The NOAA say the AO correlation to the NAO is around 0.7 - & along these 10 months the NAO was negative for 6 months which supports that claim.

- 

Whilst I am not spending a great deal of time on the flip side with a positive AO- its worth mentioning that within the years highlighted again ( 2001 onwards ) the December +NAO record was smashed in 2011- @ + 2.52 & challenged again in 2015 with + 2.24, The January +NAO record was beaten in 2005, only to be smashed in 2015 @ + 1.79 & 2016 Sits 4th all time positive @ 1.58 ( only surpassed by 89 & 97) 

The evidence is overwhelming that the polar height field is going from one extreme to the other - & the old fashioned Neutral type patterns ( NAO & AO -1.5 < > +1.5 ) are being forgotten about.

This essentially renders any pattern matching USELESS Pre 2000. Maybe even pre 2007, we are now clearly in what I can only label the POST large teapot - & Ian Browns large teapot >1988 is RIP. 

So where does that leave Oct 16 - Well the sample size is Small - only 2 months @ sub -1.5, but both Winters combined delivered record breaking polar Statistics.

Lets look where we are month to date & with high confidence to the midpoint of the month the 16th. - To set a new record @ -1.6 we need the total monthly negativity to be -50. (-1.6 over 31 days )

Heres the data so far, 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml

I put us around -35 to the 16th (-2.18) leaving 15 days to average -1. The ensemble Mean is clearly guiding us to a secondary trough starting around the 20th, so *IF* this verifies even to a lower degree the models suggest another -1 to -2 second half of the month.

October 16 is looking to SMASH the record as it stands-  & in my book based on the evidence provided that suggests a STRONG probability that 1 month of our winter will be close to record -AO & the at least 1 other month will be sub -1. The 0.7 Correlation slightly dilutes the impacts, however based on this small snapshot I would be forecasting a 2/3 -NAO winter with a 3/4 probability if you include March - which whilst not a Winter month can deliver spectacular winter weather.

 

Whilst we are only at the midpoint of October, Im looking for some ( but NOT ALL ) underpinning of -AO pattern in November, this is also where the statistical evidence gathered over 60 years supports a VERY good correlation that a November AO of SUB -1 supports an  84% chance that each winter month will be Negative -

Here is the Evidence.

November Months with sub -1 recorded. ( we haven't had one for 14 years )- 

1952,55,57,59,62,65,68,80,85,98,00 & 02 =   12 Years. 

Of these 36 Months 30 Winter Months were Negative AO -- 84% & the NAO was 19/36 -- 52%. Adding to this across 36 Months there was only 2 +1 NAO months - Dec 65, Jan 86 ...

I believe that Statistically that represents good value that November -AO sets the tone for Winter .... But only again within the bounds where -1 was the monthly result ( the neutral zone doesn't give an even picture )

Reversing the polarity again, for +1 AO Novembers we get

1978,93,94,11,13,15  = 18 Months..

   The following winter AO only manages 6 Positive Months, so only 33% -However these winters NAO was positive 15/18 Months ( & of those its every year post 78 was positive ) - 84% correlated !!

Look at that huge icelandic low pressure -

 

To Summarise then:

October 16 is currently on course to be a record breaker & from the 2 like for like years we should have moderate expectations that the following Winter should produce a significantly -AO pattern & a similarly but diluted down -NAO pattern. its only moderate confidence because of the small sample size.

If the AO comes in negative for November- Ideally sub -1 then our confidence in the above forecast should move from moderate to HIGH expectations- & at that point I would give a high probability of a below average winter with higher incidence of snowfall.

All eyes on the AO for the remainder of OCT & NOV to hopefully set the tone for the Winter...

S 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Big Steve Murr

what a superb post. Thanks very much for the stats and you have set something up to follow with intent again.  

 

BFTP

[hillbilly]

I guess what you are saying Steve is ignore everything before 2007 yet how can we find any definate patterns over a 9 year period,it is either a cold or mild extreme,it could do anything.Why dont i just sum it up for all of you ....No one has a clue what it is going to do in 2 or 3 months time,and if you get November right it would be a good Guess !

I

[Radiating Dendrite]

3 hours ago, hillbilly said:

I guess what you are saying Steve is ignore everything before 2007 yet how can we find any definate patterns over a 9 year period,it is either a cold or mild extreme,it could do anything.Why dont i just sum it up for all of you ....No one has a clue what it is going to do in 2 or 3 months time,and if you get November right it would be a good Guess !

I

If everyone had that attitude we would still be using stone tools.

 

[swfc]

4 hours ago, hillbilly said:

I guess what you are saying Steve is ignore everything before 2007 yet how can we find any definate patterns over a 9 year period,it is either a cold or mild extreme,it could do anything.Why dont i just sum it up for all of you ....No one has a clue what it is going to do in 2 or 3 months time,and if you get November right it would be a good Guess !

I

you may do well to take in the things the more exp guys post on here. sometimes just learning and looking is a good thing !!!

[markyo]

5 hours ago, hillbilly said:

I guess what you are saying Steve is ignore everything before 2007 yet how can we find any definate patterns over a 9 year period,it is either a cold or mild extreme,it could do anything.Why dont i just sum it up for all of you ....No one has a clue what it is going to do in 2 or 3 months time,and if you get November right it would be a good Guess !

I

Err,don't agree with that,you may want to take note when folk who have a far greater understanding of weather than you or me stick their neck out and make a reasoned forecast. They aren't always right by any means but as I've said many times it's the trend  that you look for that is the key and so far this Autumn the underlining theme is for a cooler if not cold winter,may change but time will tell.

[stewfox]

6 hours ago, hillbilly said:

I guess what you are saying Steve is ignore everything before 2007 yet how can we find any definate patterns over a 9 year period,it is either a cold or mild extreme,it could do anything.Why dont i just sum it up for all of you ....No one has a clue what it is going to do in 2 or 3 months time,and if you get November right it would be a good Guess !

I

You have to remember with regards to the Arctic we are in new territory and its fair to say post 2007 is unknown

We have never see temp wise figures remotely like the attached in the last 60 years.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

Edited October 14, 2016 by stewfox

[hillbilly]

 

I guess i will make a half hearted apology to those who are very educated out there but they also have to realise there are lots of less qualified people on this forum who do shake their heads when they hear such long range forcasts,I was brought up as a farmer and then a builder and the fact is it is difficult as it is trying to fit work around a weekly forcast which can be wildly wrong at times and like the guy says anything months away is pure fantasy to the likes of me !

[Mapantz]

6 minutes ago, hillbilly said:

 

I guess i will make a half hearted apology to those who are very educated out there but they also have to realise there are lots of less qualified people on this forum who do shake their heads when they hear such long range forcasts,I was brought up as a farmer and then a builder and the fact is it is difficult as it is trying to fit work around a weekly forcast which can be wildly wrong at times and like the guy says anything months away is pure fantasy to the likes of me !

There's no need to apologise for anything. It is silly season, and if you dare question something that relates to a cold Winter, you'll feel the wrath of some members.

[markyo]

7 minutes ago, hillbilly said:

 

I guess i will make a half hearted apology to those who are very educated out there but they also have to realise there are lots of less qualified people on this forum who do shake their heads when they hear such long range forcasts,I was brought up as a farmer and then a builder and the fact is it is difficult as it is trying to fit work around a weekly forcast which can be wildly wrong at times and like the guy says anything months away is pure fantasy to the likes of me !

Very well put,i totally agree day to day,weekly forecasts are not shall we say accurate by any means,in your trade it must be so frustrating. It's the little telltale signs of the season forecast that coupled together MAY provide a indication of how this winter will pan out,at the moment they are leaning towards the colder season,but this could change. Think the best advice is keep watching! 

[markyo]

13 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

There's no need to apologise for anything. It is silly season, and if you dare question something that relates to a cold Winter, you'll feel the wrath of some members.

Suppose it's just like summer months then,you dare to question why folk like hot humid weather you feel the wrath of some members?

[Spikey M]

Well, 3 good winters on the bounce have been followed by 3 awful winters on the bounce.

Let's hope these things really do come in threes...

Edited October 14, 2016 by Spikey M

[Hocus Pocus]

My hopes are for a winter akin to 1947 and 63 combined. Sadly my thoughts are slightly different and on the lines of watered down version of 2010/11 with a colder than average December proceeding a milder than average January, February.