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Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17


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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
4 hours ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

There we have it guys. We've finally sent someone nuts by moaning about mild rampers!!!! 

Nice one Ian. I for one think that sounds like a well balanced, thought out forecast. With a fair chance of it coming into fruition. . . . Let the dream continue guys°°°° 

That would certainly be my dream weather for a whole year and I would certainly love to forecast it but I know any forecast I ever make could never do Ian's forecast justice.

Edited by Lettucing Gutted
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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
2 hours ago, TheRelievedsuper said:

I'm agree with you. My grandpa was telling me the same when I was kid

No fog yet, too windy, if high pressure settles over us, then we could be in business

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Posted
  • Location: NorthWest Central London, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy Winters, Hot and Sunny Summers - Never Mild!
  • Location: NorthWest Central London, United Kingdom

W

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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire

Last year i said I 'felt' it would be a cold one and it turned out to be horribly mild and disgusting, so reverse psychology comes into play here.

 

I feel this winter will be exceptionally mild and packed with wind and rain.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
1 hour ago, mpkio2 said:

Well, its time for me (And many on here!) to come out of my Summer hibernation!

Hopes for Winter 2016/2017?

After the horrible (Mild) couple of winters we've had to endure, I'm hoping for at least two weeks (Occuring around Mid-December) of snow, cold, ice, the whole shi-bang to happen. Even a bit of mist and fog will beat last Winter, no problem, and thats saying something! :blink2:

So yeah, I'm with the majority who are hoping for a cold and snowy winter.

Looking at all sypnoptics for a cold winter, we have the follwing (So far- current of 7th Oct 2016):
-Low Solar Activy? Check!
-Advancing Eurasia Snow Cover? Check! (Needs to advance 60N)
-More Active Hurricane Season? Check! (Thoughts with the people of Hiati!)
-ENSO - Netural, but on "Weak LaNina side - Enhances more blocking!
-QBO? Doing something strange - Still in wQBO - Slowily going into eQBO though!
-Strat? Well not cold yet, but will rapidly cooling down during October and November.
-NAO? Exspected not to be as active as the last couple of winters!

Currently, the AO has gone negative and, as the brillant @StevenMurr has been alluding to, is something which corelates to a "blocked" winter. I have this quote from the "Model Forecasting Forum" which yet expands on the October -AO theory:

blizzard81:
Absolutely. Many of our harsh winters have been preceded by blocked Octobers - the Octobers of 46, 62, 78, 85, 09 to name just a few :-)

^^^^^We all know what happenened in those Winters, don't we? :acute:

Anyway, lets just wait and see! It's gonna be a hell of a roller-coaster ride, no doubt!

~mpkio2~

Not checked whether they were blocked or not but the actual CET temperatures for 46, 62, 09, at least, were all at or above the average over those periods?

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Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton
Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield

I'm afraid stats can only be a guide,only one person knows what this winter is going to do.Mother Nature will i'm sure frustrate,tease and lead us up many a false trail over the coming months,but that's what makes it so interesting. It's only weather by the way though so everybody should be entitled to their view,banter..oh yes,more than that,no,out of order no matter how strong your view is..It is the silly season so we better enjoy it!:)

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
5 hours ago, Azazel said:

Last year i said I 'felt' it would be a cold one and it turned out to be horribly mild and disgusting, so reverse psychology comes into play here.

 

I feel this winter will be exceptionally mild and packed with wind and rain.

I do though! expect nowadays, Atlantic air between mid Nov and Mid Feb, a lot more frequent than good old days 90's and earlier

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
6 minutes ago, markyo said:

I'm afraid stats can only be a guide,only one person knows what this winter is going to do.Mother Nature will i'm sure frustrate,tease and lead us up many a false trail over the coming months,but that's what makes it so interesting. 

I have done a search and cant find this person ? Are they on the forum ?

However I have already told the mother-in-law ,we cant come over on boxing day because of the forecast for heavy snow. So like last year the 93 year old is going to walk the 12 miles to our house.:)

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

After so many years spent looking for precursors to a super-cold winter, I have given up...AFAIAC, and based on what I have seen so far, no such precursors exist? Unless of course, a Europe knee-deep in snow (and with max. temps of -10C or less) come December has any relevance?:cc_confused:

Whatever will be, will be?:D

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
9 hours ago, iapennell said:

This, unfortunately is NOT my prediction for Winter 2016-17 which one can read here: 

 

It is, instead a description of my Utopian Winter, the sort of weather that would fill me with great excitement. Alas, it is not going to happen either this year or next.

Oh come on. I can except you not expecting a cold Winter this year as it's only round the corner (though I do hope your wrong) . But to say that next year it's not going to be cold is stretching things a bit. Nobody can possibly know that. Though to be honest I too doubt the type of super extreme Winter you've described will happen either, surely even if you're ruling out a more normal cold Winter this year, you can't possibly be so sure about the Winter after. Maybe that's not what you mean and you think the possibility of a less extreme cold Winter 2017/18 can't be ruled out at this stage, just your ultimate fantasy scenario. If so sorry.

Edited by Walsall Wood Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.txt

Some good news is that not only has the PDO continued to decline but now that seasonal wavelengths have changed, the warm blob near Alaska is starting to promote a trough which should weaken those warm waters further.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
On 07/10/2016 at 19:03, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Oh come on. I can except you not expecting a cold Winter this year as it's only round the corner (though I do hope your wrong) . But to say that next year it's not going to be cold is stretching things a bit. Nobody can possibly know that. Though to be honest I too doubt the type of super extreme Winter you've described will happen either, surely even if you're ruling out a more normal cold Winter this year, you can't possibly be so sure about the Winter after. Maybe that's not what you mean and you think the possibility of a less extreme cold Winter 2017/18 can't be ruled out at this stage, just your ultimate fantasy scenario. If so sorry.

Ian didn't say it wasn't going to be cold next Winter, he was saying his utopian Winter won't happen this Winter, or next.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
14 minutes ago, Nick L said:

The EC seasonal has updated today. The GH500 anomalies throughout the winter are signalling fairly significant high-lat blocking. What I'm liking about this is that it's reasonably consistent with last month's run. Pinch of salt, definitely, but for coldies there is hope.

A bit of good news for today then.......

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Posted
  • Location: Lincs
  • Location: Lincs
1 hour ago, Nick L said:

The EC seasonal has updated today. The GH500 anomalies throughout the winter are signalling fairly significant high-lat blocking. What I'm liking about this is that it's reasonably consistent with last month's run. Pinch of salt, definitely, but for coldies there is hope.

When does the high lat blocking start? Sometime in November? 

Ryan

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
On 07/10/2016 at 09:16, iapennell said:

 

 

 

 

5 hours ago, Mapantz said:

Ian didn't say it wasn't going to be cold next Winter, he was saying his utopian Winter won't happen this Winter, or next.

My bad. To be fair I kind of jumped the gun a bit there, and when I started thinking more clearly I realised that was probably what he meant. 

Edited by Walsall Wood Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Alston, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Proper Seasons,lots of frost and snow October to April, hot summers!
  • Location: Alston, Cumbria

Gavin's latest Winter 2016-17 prediction is sadly not happy news for cold -lovers (I do include myself amongst them!).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1sKbIvROO1o

 

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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
5 hours ago, iapennell said:

Gavin's latest Winter 2016-17 prediction is sadly not happy news for cold -lovers (I do include myself amongst them!).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1sKbIvROO1o

 

Tried to watch his videos a few times, but the way he speaks and his voice really grates on me.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton

I wonder if the Icelandic eruptions in 2010 coupled with solar minimum led to the harsh december in that year. Yes Ian.P a volcanic eruption now would certainly change hopes for this winter decisively.

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Posted
  • Location: South Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, cold, cold and errrr......cold. I am, unashamedly, a cold fan.
  • Location: South Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth
8 hours ago, iapennell said:

Gavin's latest Winter 2016-17 prediction is sadly not happy news for cold -lovers (I do include myself amongst them!).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1sKbIvROO1o

 

They're not predictions at the moment, just updates on what models are showing. His prediction or forecast is usually on the 1st of every season. So his winter forecast will be on Dec 1st.

Edited by simshady
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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
8 hours ago, iapennell said:

Gavin's latest Winter 2016-17 prediction is sadly not happy news for cold -lovers (I do include myself amongst them!).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1sKbIvROO1o

 

Looking on the bright side, if we all go into winter expecting it to be disappointing (from a coldies perspective), which seems to be the best default position these days, then if it's not we're all going to get a nice surprise.

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
4 hours ago, Matthew Wilson said:

I wonder if the Icelandic eruptions in 2010 coupled with solar minimum led to the harsh december in that year. Yes Ian.P a volcanic eruption now would certainly change hopes for this winter decisively.

i suspect there is something in this..the weather patterns across the Europe and North America during the 2nd half of 2010 were pretty unusual to say the least.

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