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Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17


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Posted
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Harsh Frosts & Heavy Snow
  • Location: Yate, Bristol

As much as I love snow more than anything, all I hope for is some proper cold, frosty mornings. Snow would just be a bonus.

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Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Storms
  • Location: Kesgrave, Ipswich

I see the beast is showing a royal flush early doors. Would be great to see him come back for another game early December. :cold:Hoping for something a little more seasonal this year.

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

I think i will  hopefully spend more time in the regional forum this winter, while i like my own region for obvious reasons i actually enjoy visiting other regions, esp at a time when snow is on the cards! I will of course read the model thread but will probably refrain from posting that much in there, i have my reasons....:)

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Posted
  • Location: Swords, Co. Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Swords, Co. Dublin, Ireland

I would like to echo the comments from stewfox above. This is truly the best and most informative forums. It is especially enjoyable as we approach Winter. Every year at this time my own excitement builds and then the rollercoasters commence! What an experience to see the forum going into meltdown in the expectation of another repeat of 2010!

So, what are my expectations for this coming Winter? Well, being from Dublin, I can only repeat the sentiment expressed in that ad for a certain dark drink - "in the home of the black stuff they still dream of a white one"!

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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK

I'd like a winter where the Atlantic is not sending endless storms, wind and rain to batter us for weeks and months on end, like some recent winters. Some storms are normal of course and exciting in their own way but I'd love to see a lot more high pressure, giving crisp sunny days, frost mist and fog by night. A couple of brief snowy spells too would be good as long as it's not a slush-fest.

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
14 hours ago, markyo said:

Find that attitude a bit pompous,netweather is a brilliant forum,,many various threads and sub forums to engage on. Folk aren't illiterate as you state,they enjoy the banter and yes sometimes it goes over the top,but everybody is different with how the both view's and comment on the weather. That is why it is called the Netweather Community,ever community has it's variation in opinions and ways of voicing them. Sorry wheat and the chaff statement is wrong in my opinion,ever bodies opinion counts,regardless of how they voice it. But that's just my opinion. Oh and by the way,welcome to the Community.!

Woah there! Pompous? I think you and Stewfox have me all wrong. I get excited at extreme weather as much as the next man. I'm referring to the thankfully few posters who go out of their way to wind up and anger other people and create a negative atmosphere. There is no denying you get some of that every year. In every community you get people who are just wrong and deliberately disruptive, that is a fact of life. I happily read the contributions of probably 99% of the members here, it is only a tiny minority who cause any issues. Chill everyone! I meant no offence. Its too early in the season to get so worked up ;)

But back on topic, hopefully this cool weather bodes well for the season ahead. Also a question, I see Accuweather has a 90 days ahead function, can anyone tell me which model creates this forecast? Or do they have their own data? It doesn't seem to be showing anything exceptional for the UK coming up. Pretty average really.

Edited by Seasonality
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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

@Seasonality 

I think Accuweather use the GFS

Two weather have a similar feature for

150 days 

a load of tosh really  fun to look at but

for me I don't look at more than five

days advance  (maybe three in winter)

Welcome to the forum by the way.

you seem very knowledgeable look

forward to reading your posts on the

MOD thread in the coming months.

C.S

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
23 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

@Seasonality 

I think Accuweather use the GFS

Two weather have a similar feature for

150 days 

a load of tosh really  fun to look at but

for me I don't look at more than five

days advance  (maybe three in winter)

Welcome to the forum by the way.

you seem very knowledgeable look

forward to reading your posts on the

MOD thread in the coming months.

C.S

I wouldn't call myself very knowledgeable, I'm nowhere near the levels of knowledge of the many seasoned experts here, just an interested amateur. Interesting charts appearing in the models now. Pop on over to the mod thread and you can see some optimism, even if they're only FI charts for now and it is only the first week of October. We can only hope!

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Accuweather winter forecast

Quote

 

Europe winter forecast: Frequent storms to batter UK; Mild winter to spare France and Germany

An active storm track across the north Atlantic Ocean will produce a high number of storms tracking across western and central Europe this winter. Eastern Europe will experience a more tranquil and mild winter; however, a significant cold shot or two is predicted during the second half of the season.

Storms to frequent British Isles with rain and wind

A stormy weather pattern will set in before wintertime with active weather during the second half of October across Ireland and the United Kingdom. At least one named windstorm is expected during this time before a lull in windstorms in November. However, storm systems may still bring locally heavy rainfall at times during the month. The most active period of weather will be during the official winter months from December through February. December and February will bring the potential for multiple windstorms within a week.

The greatest wind threat is expected across Northern Ireland and Scotland while significant, but less frequent, damaging wind events will impact Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom. "Above-normal rainfall across the U.K. and Ireland will result in another winter of flooding problems," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alan Reppert said. Frequent storms from the Atlantic will keep cold air at bay as milder air from the ocean results in near- to above-normal temperatures. The lack of cold air will limit snowfall throughout the season; however, brief shots of cold air may produce some low elevation snowfall at times. Locations with the greatest threat for impactful snowfall include Edinburgh and Sheffield.

650x366_09281539_2016-17-europe-winter-h

 

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-2016-2017-stormy-uk-mild-wet-france-germany/60378723

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Sunny and nice if Hillary was elected, rainy wet and warm if Donald Trump was elected. If I was global warming I'd start showing off now seeing that Trump supporters actively deny global warming only because Trump is given wads of money by the big corporations.

Edited by Guest
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

Sensible, realistic forecast from them SS, wouldn't be surprised to see Ian Pennell forecasting similar, anyone else think he is accurate?

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Sensible, realistic forecast from them SS, wouldn't be surprised to see Ian Pennell forecasting similar, anyone else think he is accurate?

I'll tell you in April 

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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

Can't really argue with that from accuweather they have pretty much nailed there forecast for the uk last two winters. Not too keen on more heavy rain and windstorms again. But we have to deal with the hand we are dealt with. And it does sound as though we may get at least one snow event which is certainly better than last couple of winters. 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
9 hours ago, Seasonality said:

Woah there! Pompous? I think you and Stewfox have me all wrong. I get excited at extreme weather as much as the next man. I'm referring to the thankfully few posters who go out of their way to wind up and anger other people and create a negative atmosphere. There is no denying you get some of that every year. In every community you get people who are just wrong and deliberately disruptive, that is a fact of life. I happily read the contributions of probably 99% of the members here, it is only a tiny minority who cause any issues. Chill everyone! I meant no offence. Its too early in the season to get so worked up ;)

But back on topic, hopefully this cool weather bodes well for the season ahead. Also a question, I see Accuweather has a 90 days ahead function, can anyone tell me which model creates this forecast? Or do they have their own data? It doesn't seem to be showing anything exceptional for the UK coming up. Pretty average really.

Absolutely agree 100% with that highlighted part Seasonality, by the way, czesc ! :D

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
11 minutes ago, terrier said:

Can't really argue with that from accuweather they have pretty much nailed there forecast for the uk last two winters. Not too keen on more heavy rain and windstorms again. But we have to deal with the hand we are dealt with. And it does sound as though we may get at least one snow event which is certainly better than last couple of winters. 

For last winter if my memory serves me correct they predicted a seasonal winter in the uk with slightly colder conditions on Scotland and ni . And we know what happened.  So they hardly nailed it however they may have it right . I'll wait for the glosea update before I spit my dummy out 

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So just going back to my musings regarding the AO-

I may spend some more time reviewing it this week - however as I mentioned the other day an October Month has only ever come out below -1.5 twice & that was 2012 & 2009-

if we look at the 12z & certainly the ensemble mean from the 00z run which takes us towards midmonth then that record potentially seems under threat -

image.jpg

I would hazard a guess we are around -2 by mid month if it varifies - of course with 2 weeks post that then it could all change...

what does it mean, well there have been some assertions that due to the ice loss & subsequent reduction in thermal gradient that October would see a slower start to the zonal westerlies & that more negative AOs would become apparent- & this certainly holds water with the record -1.5 Oct 2012 as it was also the lowest ice minimum year -

However if this was the case the since 2007 this should have been apparent, but the results are a mixed bag-

The 2 record years 09 & 12 mixed in with generally averageness - so maybe whilst the ice loss theory probably plays a part- I suspect thats its just aome of the make up-

That said it seems that it seems to support a big negative swing towards 'negativeness' V what may have been the case in that year -

So my brief summary would be that the October AO isnt 100% correlated to a blocked winter, however if it turns out heavily negative then one would assume the background support is there as well-

I would also add, that -AO octobers followed by -AO novembers tend to really support a blocked winter as well- however I need to check that !

 

S

PS 2009 oct -1.5 dec -3.4 jan -2.4 feb -4.2

2012 oct -1.5 dec -1.7 march -3.18

 

 

 

Edited by Steve Murr
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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

I wonder if two blocked Octobers on the trot will be followed by two mild winters on the trot. That forecast doesn't look too promising, but it is one of many. Time will tell.

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Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire

Accoweather appear to have copied and pasted a mix of bits from the winters of stormy 2013/14 and 2014/15 . Even down to the very specific highlighting of Sheffield as having impactful snow.  

Edited by ukpaul
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