Polar Maritime

Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17

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I reckon we'll have a 2012/3 repeat. For some reason, the run of mild winters seems to be confined to a history book, and the ridiculous December 2015 record will not be broken for a loooooong time. 

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Snow wise, it all depends on how much fog we get this October, no fog means no snow, it's old weather lore, but has been spot on here for the past three years.

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2 hours ago, nn2013 said:

I reckon we'll have a 2012/3 repeat. For some reason, the run of mild winters seems to be confined to a history book, and the ridiculous December 2015 record will not be broken for a loooooong time. 

Wouldn't mind another March 2013...very snowy for my back yard and was exceptionally cold.....but that's spring. For now I'm hoping for a cold and frosty November. That's as far as I'm going for now....Oh what the hell!.... I'm hoping for a  :help: :cold::help: winter:D

 

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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I'd like a few frosts to reduce the numbers of pests and because I love cold, crisp, sunny mornings.  Other than that, I'd like for there not to be a stream of dartboard lows bringing flooding and wind damage for the sake of those who have been o badly affected this past thre winters.  In terms of what I think will happen, though, I suspect a repeat of last winter is on the cards.

Edited by chrisbell-nottheweatherman
Correcting typo.
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I think (based on nothing) we'll have a average Winter overall but perhaps leaning more to the cold side than the mild side. By this I mean we'll have cold spells interspersed with mild spells (though nothing exceptionally mild ala Dec 15) and I think we might even get a very cold and snowy nationwide event at some point or even more than one. I do think that there's also fair chance it'll be colder than the previous 3 though based on the 3 mild Winters sandwiched between 2 colder ones theory, such as happened between the Winters of 1986/87 and 1990/91, and also 1996/97 and 2000/01. Though admittedly that could have been mere coincidence rather than some sort of climatic probability, but we'll see. On the other hand I hope for a Winter to be up there with the greats of 1946/47 and 1962/63. But they're too rare to expect at any given time. Never say never though I suppose.

Edited by Walsall Wood Snow
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I always hope for some snow in December, but as I have more chance to win the lottery, a nice snowy period so i have a cosy snow day with bubs!

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Think it will be above average but with the usual cold snap in December rather than mid Jan. 

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What i want and what i get could be very different.... i want hard frosts i want cold ice days lasting for weeks on end record low cold temps and more snow than i would know what to do with... i doubt i will get that but i would settle for  a repeat of 12/13.... the Horrors of 13/14 i never want to see the likes again...

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my guess is, that we will have a winter dominated by the Atlantic, hardly a break in the zonality from mid Nov to mid Mar, flooding issues will come up again through the UK, could be in top 10 'wettest winters' on record

exciting though for 300m plus asl oop norf, as my 'guess' will be PM shots at times between systems, virtually snowless though for low levels south

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Personally I would like lots of brief cold snaps spread out throughout the winter, each delivering a nice amount of snowfall. Therefore never getting bored and always exciting model watching. As much as I loved Dec 2010, there wasn't any cold/snow early 2011 so a cold snap lasting around a week in each month would be lovely :)

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I would love to list all the main drivers of the atmosphere and have all the analogues for the last 100 years to see how we compare statistically what we might expect:D Even then not all is known and all these main drivers and smaller influences are so complex which makes long range-forecasting outstandingly difficult and the intelligence required is admirable. Briefly I think if sunspot numbers can keep low and the QBO can switch easterly then that's a plus. I've heard it said on average you wouldn't want a strong EL Nino or La-Nina so that may be a plus also as we have neither this year. Just a very shallow view from me. Really appreciate the time put into detailed long-range forecasts and explanations by the gifted ones on this forum and the weather world in general:good: What is certain is this: One winter season at some point in the future all the Main Drivers will align and give once again remarkable snowy scenes and weeks of unrelenting icy weather from the famous years in the past.

IMG_0608.PNG

Edited by Matthew Wilson
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All being well much the same as last year with the early flourish and the second batch in January

CWCCIwCWEAAh7Cd.jpg

Edited by knocker
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Just to note this coming Winter will mark the 70th anniversary of Winter 1946/47. It would be great to have another cold Winter to coincide with it. Winter 2012/13 was also the 50th anniversary of Winter 1962/63 and we had a cold Winter then. Though not as severe in Winter proper, March 2013 could probably be classed as a severely cold month for its time of year.

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3 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Just to note this coming Winter will mark the 70th anniversary of Winter 1946/47. It would be great to have another cold Winter to coincide with it. Winter 2012/13 was also the 50th anniversary of Winter 1962/63 and we had a cold Winter then. Though not as severe in Winter proper, March 2013 could probably be classed as a severely cold month for its time of year.

And to think I remember them both. The second in great detail. :shok: Never again.

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2 minutes ago, knocker said:

And to think I remember them both. The second in great detail. :shok: Never again.

Any chance of writing a book on that winter? Would be a great read:D

Edited by Matthew Wilson
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1 minute ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Any chance of writing a book on that winter? Would be a great read:D

I think JH has it covered.

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9 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Just to note this coming Winter will mark the 70th anniversary of Winter 1946/47. It would be great to have another cold Winter to coincide with it. Winter 2012/13 was also the 50th anniversary of Winter 1962/63 and we had a cold Winter then. Though not as severe in Winter proper, March 2013 could probably be classed as a severely cold month for its time of year.

Be nice if it did come off! 2018/9 will be the 40th anniversary of Winter 1978/9 too another severe one. I know 2009/10, and 2010/11 and to a lesser point 2012/13 were very bad, but I would love to experience a severe one like 1978/9 or 1946/7! 

Edited by nn2013
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1 minute ago, nn2013 said:

Be nice if it did come off! 2018/9 will be the 40th anniversary of Winter 1978/9 too another severe one. I know 2009/10, and 2010/11 and to a lesser point 2012/13 were very bad, but I would love to experience a severe one like 1978/9 or 1946/7! 

move to peak district!

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16 minutes ago, knocker said:

All being well much the same as last year with the early flourish and the second batch in January

CWCCIwCWEAAh7Cd.jpg

I hope not, seeing the Manchester Ship Canal, yes the Ship Canal,  burst its bank where I live on Boxing Day was unnerving. 

A drier winter than the last one for me.

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17 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Just to note this coming Winter will mark the 70th anniversary of Winter 1946/47. It would be great to have another cold Winter to coincide with it. Winter 2012/13 was also the 50th anniversary of Winter 1962/63 and we had a cold Winter then. Though not as severe in Winter proper, March 2013 could probably be classed as a severely cold month for its time of year.

It's the centenary of the 1916-17 severe winter. That lasted from December 1916 to mid-late April 1917.

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Too early to give any detailed prediction, but the probabilities are in favour for a drier and more settled one compared to last year.. I'm a believer in mother nature balancing herself, and in this respect have a strong gut feeling the first half will see much anticyclonic weather with a very weak ineffectual jet and perhaps northerly airstreams gaining the upper hand - the complete opposite to last year (a comparison with Nov 09 and Nov 10 disparity).. I really do feel strongly about this. 

 

 

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3 hours ago, Nick L said:

With many long range models and the Met Office going for at least a cold first half to winter, I'm optimistic. 

Agreed.

METO, last couple of years, have been amazingly accurate (broadbrush).

If they're saying "cold first half" i'm inclined to believe.

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