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Seasonality

Weather in Poland

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Much of Poland is going to experience very warm weather for this time of year over the next few days. Temperatures remained in the mid to high twenties in Warsaw until the middle of the month with at least two days of 30C then cooled down to single digit minima and maxima in the teens by the 18th. Summer is having a last hurrah though with maximums of 23 on Friday and Saturday. No mean feat for this time of year. However, fast forward one week and there will be a predicted maximum of 12 and minimum of 5 in the city. The rapid variation is certainly interesting.

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It was an unseasonable maximum of 23C in Warsaw yesterday. This felt even more odd in that the autumn foliage is well in evidence already. The cool down for later this week will be even more pronounced now with Sunday forecast to have a minimum of 1C to a maximum of 8C. From unseasonable warmth to unseasonable cold in the space of seven days. Hopefully the start of a good cold pool for UK weather fans to tap into.

Edited by Seasonality
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I was in Warsaw for four days at the end of last December and was amazed how it went from 14C max on the 26th to -2C max on the 30th. Quite an evident cold front moved through on the 28th from memory with rain turning to snow, then the following day there was a sugar coating of snow on the ground (lovely to walk around Lazienki Park) in and deep blue skies with no wind. Lovely!

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1 hour ago, MP-R said:

I was in Warsaw for four days at the end of last December and was amazed how it went from 14C max on the 26th to -2C max on the 30th. Quite an evident cold front moved through on the 28th from memory with rain turning to snow, then the following day there was a sugar coating of snow on the ground (lovely to walk around Lazienki Park) in and deep blue skies with no wind. Lovely!

Łazienki is particularly beautiful. Last December in Poland was as freakishly warm as it was in the UK until the end of the month. That is the difference with a continental climate, the transition to cold tends to be more stark and intense. Warsaw is particularly spectacular when the River Vistula freezes over, fingers crossed for this year.

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The weather continues cool for the time of year in Warsaw. Driving out of town this past weekend I also had the pleasure of fog in the countryside and noticed that the River Vistula is rising nicely after being topped up by the autumn rains. There was even a grass frost on Friday morning when the sky cleared. Classic autumn weather.

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Half my extended family live in Wroclaw, the other half Lublin.

Quite a difference in the climate of these cities,especially  in winter.

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9 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Half my extended family live in Wroclaw, the other half Lublin.

Quite a difference in the climate of these cities,especially  in winter.

Very much so. The coldest of course being Lublin in the east.

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5 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Very much so. The coldest of course being Lublin in the east.

Na pewno :D

I have yet to go in winter to the eastern side, its cold enough in Wroclaw ( my son likes to visit the gnomes ), anyway, my Grandad always talked about how cold the Winters were before the war, he lived in what is now Belarus- a place called slonim and he said an east wind in January was bitterly cold.

The summers of course are generally fantasic- this summer just gone was hot from may to september pretty much non stop, as you already know for sure.

I would love a Polish climate, hot summer, cold winter. Perfect! :)

Edited by northwestsnow
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On ‎13‎/‎10‎/‎2016 at 07:48, northwestsnow said:

Na pewno :D

I have yet to go in winter to the eastern side, its cold enough in Wroclaw ( my son likes to visit the gnomes ), anyway, my Grandad always talked about how cold the Winters were before the war, he lived in what is now Belarus- a place called slonim and he said an east wind in January was bitterly cold.

The summers of course are generally fantasic- this summer just gone was hot from may to september pretty much non stop, as you already know for sure.

I would love a Polish climate, hot summer, cold winter. Perfect! :)

Yes, it was a good summer this year. Meanwhile, Friday saw an air frost in Warsaw. It was 0C on the nose in town and a couple of degrees below in the surrounding districts. Went to check on my house that I'm building just outside Warsaw and had a lovely frost and ice on the puddles to complement the crisp, sunny autumn morning. Beautiful weather.

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After a mildish blip earlier this week, Poland looks set to continue a cooler than average autumn. Snow row has increased to nine  around 9 November and a good number of sub zero runs are creeping into the T2M graph. A good way of seeing cold weather creeping west is to check the weather for Suwałki in Poland's north east, considered the coldest city in the country. At the end of FI it is currently forecast to have max temps of -1C with snow, and not even half way through November.

 

gefsens850Warsaw_Poland0.png

gefstmp2mmaxWarsaw_Poland.png

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Interesting weather on Saturday in Warsaw. A heavy downpour turned quickly to hail that actually gave a white covering on the ground and was accompanied by a few flashes of lightning. It was quite localised though it seems as areas 20 km to the North-East of the city barely had a drop of rain. Meanwhile the forecast is cooling nicely with sleet currently predicted for Friday night and a small tweak in the synoptics with five days still to go could mean the first snow of the season (or alternatively just cold rain).

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Quite a chilly regime forecast for the next week with some snowfall incoming. Looking at yr.no they have forecast lows down to -11 on Saturday morning but I'm taking this with a pinch of salt, bit overcooked looking at the charts.

 

081116.png

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2 hours ago, Seasonality said:

Quite a chilly regime forecast for the next week with some snowfall incoming. Looking at yr.no they have forecast lows down to -11 on Saturday morning but I'm taking this with a pinch of salt, bit overcooked looking at the charts.

 

081116.png

That said though, just saw the ECM ensemble for the 00Z. Some support for a very chilly Saturday morning.

 

ensemble-tt6-warsaw.gif

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I'm pleased to report Warsaw's first 'proper' snow fall of the season. After a dusting earlier in November and a few snow showers here and there the first day of meteorological winter delivered in style with a good 5-10cm of snow settling from falls from 1 December into this morning with more forecast this afternoon and tonight. Pleased to report airports working perfectly and no travel disruption and everybody going about their daily business (contrast with the chaos this would bring to London for example, but noted that Warsaw is much more used to this and has infrastructure like snow ploughs etc in place). Webcam view across the River Vistula to the National Stadium on the left bank.

1444459056-warsaw-rzeczpospolita-stadion-narodowy.jpg

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The four day mild snap in Warsaw is thankfully over today. Back to around the seasonal norms or a little below, 10 out of the next 14 days currently forecast as ice days. Little in the way of snow but xmas at least looking pleasantly a chilly -1 max if current forecasts verify. This weekend coming has some festive temps forecast with min of -8 and max -4 :santa-emoji: Much better than last year's horrid mild crap.

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18 hours ago, Essex Easterly said:

What were the Warsaw temps on average during last winter out of interest?

Here we go, got these from weatherspark.com First image shows 2016 temps and second is 2015, (guide to diagrams below) As you can see, mild apart from a spell in January.

"The full year of hourly temperature reports with the days of the year on the horizontal and the hours of the day on the vertical. The hourly temperature measurement is color coded into meaningful temperature bands: frigid is purple (below -9°C), freezing is blue (-9°C to 0°C), cold is dark green (0°C to 10°C), cool is light green (10°C to 18°C), comfortable is yellow (18°C to 24°C), warm is light red (24°C to 29°C), hot is medium red (29°C to 38°C), sweltering is dark red (above 38°C), and missing data is pink."

 

hourly_temperature_bands_hourOfDay_hOfDay.png

hourly_temperature_bands_hourOfDay_hOfDay (1).png

Edited by Seasonality
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Clearly 2015 showing a warm up at the end of the year. Would be interesting to compare to 2010 or 2006. As I vaguely remember 2006 was a brutal winter for Eastern Europe?

 

 

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Right @Seasonality - I'm off to Krakow this Friday and I'm not liking what I'm seeing in the forecast. Looks like rain and warmer than here on Boxing Day! W're wanting to go to Zakopane on either Christmas Day or Boxing Day but neither are showing particularly good weather. What do you think is the best site to use for accuracy?

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3 hours ago, MP-R said:

Right @Seasonality - I'm off to Krakow this Friday and I'm not liking what I'm seeing in the forecast. Looks like rain and warmer than here on Boxing Day! W're wanting to go to Zakopane on either Christmas Day or Boxing Day but neither are showing particularly good weather. What do you think is the best site to use for accuracy?

Sorry about that. Poorly timed mild snap. Zakopane should be good for xmas day. It has altitude on its side. For Zakopane snow-forecast.com is usually pretty accurate and accuweather for shorter term forecasts. Zakopane still showing snow and chilly for the big day. Ps cooling down again for poland in the coming week.

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On 13/12/2016 at 09:03, Optimus Prime said:

Clearly 2015 showing a warm up at the end of the year. Would be interesting to compare to 2010 or 2006. As I vaguely remember 2006 was a brutal winter for Eastern Europe?

 

 

Yes. Quite cold in Jan and Feb into March. A temperature of -27 was recorded in January. 

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11 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Yes. Quite cold in Jan and Feb into March. A temperature of -27 was recorded in January. 

Just shows how unlucky the UK is for cold when you see charts like this from back then. So near yet so far. Time and again Berlin eastwards gets the cold.

archives-2006-1-19-0-2.png

archives-2006-1-22-12-2.png

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10 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

We're too close to the Atlantic!

You're only partly right. The gulf stream and the UK's location at the westernmost point of the Eurasian land mass are more important. The island of Sakhalin on the eastern side at a similar latitude is much colder. Similarly, shut down the gulf stream and the UK would be much colder. But you know that.

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Time for an update to this thread. The last couple of weeks have certainly provided some interesting weather for Poland, nothing record breaking but a decent cold spell earlier on saw temperatures dip to -20 in Warsaw and -30 in colder parts of the country like the Tatra mountains and the North East. I was lucky enough to witness diamond dust, which is a form of low level cloud composed of tiny ice crystals, it is thinly dispersed in the air though so can look like small crystals falling from a clear sky, hence the name. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diamond_dust 

The River Vistula also saw significant freezing, even in central Warsaw, where it is at least as wide if not wider than the River Thames in central London. The slower reaches and side channels around islands froze completely and were thick enough to support ice fishing with the faster channels showing floating pack ice. I've seen the river freeze completely in the past, notably in January of 2010 more recently, but this was still a pretty good effort. An unpleasant consequence of the very cold still air was terrible air pollution. It is believed this was caused by people burning sub standard fuel, like coal mud and even rubbish at home and the pollution was bad enough that warnings were issued and all public transport in Warsaw on 9 January was free to get cars off the road and avoid people walking and breathing in more pollution. 

The 12th of January saw a slight "warm up" but the temperatures would still be considered cold by UK standards. Friday the 13th saw a good spell of snow as a result of the warmer moister air and there was another decent top up yesterday. This all fell on existing cover of course so I was able to make good use of the sledge to keep the kids (and myself) entertained over the weekend. My daughter wanted to make a snow man with the fresh fall of snow yesterday afternoon but it was too powdery to stick together properly, should be better today now it has sat around for a bit and I'm sure she'll make one at school. 

As you can see from my profile I currently split my time between Warsaw and London and I was in the UK on Thursday evening when the "Arctic blast" arrived (still struggling not to snigger when I say or type that). It made an amusing contrast to see the panicked drama mongering in London over a moderate snow fall that began to melt straight after the precipitation passed through compared to a  normal Friday morning in Warsaw with colder surface temperatures and heavier snow that settled onto existing cover. But I'm being harsh to be fair. People in London are not used to snow at all, infrastructure can't handle it and people aren't any good at driving or walking in it. That said people in Poland still get annoyed when the pavements aren't cleared quickly.

According to GFS, ground temperatures will remain sub zero again for the next 8 days with lows of -10 come Friday morning, no certainty what happens thereafter of course as this is outside the reliable timeframe. ECM more keen on slightly warmer weather by 20/21 and I have commented in other posts this disconnect so early on in the model output is certainly interesting. GFS has very good backing from its ensembles too so it will be interesting to see which is more accurate. ECM performed better in the recent cold spell, maybe it will continue its good form or maybe it will be GFS turn to win.

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