Hurricane Matthew

[Ravelin]

Lets hope it stays off shore. Problem with the last update is people might get complacent, then caught out if it takes another 'wobble' back towards land later.

[mountain shadow]

3 minutes ago, AderynCoch said:

20/30 miles is nothing, even at this range. Landfall remains very much possible north of West Palm Beach.

Given the core is about 20 miles across, remaining just of shore is probably a worse scenario than landfall.

[Boro Snow]

2 minutes ago, cheese said:

This is what the NHC's latest update says. Pretty much unchanged from earlier. They posted it only half an hour ago.

 

 

Yep it stays off shore Thank God i have family on that coast

[cheese]

4 minutes ago, Boro Snow said:

Yep it stays off shore Thank God i have family on that coast

It's exactly the same as earlier in the day. Nothing's changed at all. Hurricane force winds will extend inland regardless of landfall.

[Boro Snow]

1 minute ago, cheese said:

It's exactly the same as earlier in the day. Nothing's changed at all. Hurricane force winds will extend inland regardless of landfall.

Sorry been at work most of the day i thought it was going for landfall in Florida 

[AderynCoch]

3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Given the core is about 20 miles across, remaining just of shore is probably a worse scenario than landfall.

Depends where it happens really. A landfall near Cape Canaveral would mitigate impacts further north but a landfall up the coast would bring the core directly into Jacksonville, along with the preceding storm surge.

There are several ways this could pan out.

[mud_error]

12 minutes ago, cheese said:

This is what the NHC's latest update says. Pretty much unchanged from earlier. They posted it only half an hour ago.

 

 

Thats just extraordinary. Looks like its rolling along that coast line. Forecasting where will get hit worst looks pretty impossible

[karyo]

There is a clear shift east on the 18z gfs. Good news for Florida but it means that it keeps more energy for the Carolinas

[Lincs Observation]

Been watching this TV Station for the past few hours its very good with plenty of location reports...................http://www.wftv.com/watch-live

[Gray-Wolf]

I think the guys thinking they are seeing a 'jog east' need to look at the radar images?

We are currently mid EWR with the outer eye being 75 miles across and the inner  eye being around 12 miles across. The 'visible eye' is the inner eye wobbling ( trochoidaly? ) around the outer eye? if you are gauging 'direction' from the 'eye' you can see then you may be being deceived as to the direction of the main body of the storm??

The question has to be will the EWR complete before landfall/graze? 75 mile wide Cat 2 or 15 mile wide Cat 4?

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xweb weather/current weather conditions (radar)

EDIT: OMG !!! The outer eyewall appears to be contracting? We are over the gulf Stream now so there's plenty of 'Oooomph' out there ?

Edited October 6, 2016 by Gray-Wolf

[andymusic]

Matthews current track

[Love Snow]

https://www.periscope.tv/w/asVdSjFXTEVSZVBZTFJWamJ8MVlxeG9YbE9ZTVhLdvYNLvyzthIfV5cLQ2J1T6dUkTPCOx608uo02-QYKfPF

 

Great stream had a mini vortex in it blew the fence down 

[Jack Wales]

37 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

EDIT: OMG !!! The outer eyewall appears to be contracting? We are over the gulf Stream now so there's plenty of 'Oooomph' out there ?

Yes, It looks ominous now and central pressures have dropped to 935mb. Given the current satellite presentation there's scope for some slight strengthening before landfall. 

[Snow Queen one]

No more to report yet.  Wind died down rain stopped.  Glad I moved Base.   Very nice here

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Quite a lot of lightning associated with Matthew too recently, even in the eye wall too! This thing is a monster. 

[Gray-Wolf]

34 minutes ago, Love Snow said:

https://www.periscope.tv/w/asVdSjFXTEVSZVBZTFJWamJ8MVlxeG9YbE9ZTVhLdvYNLvyzthIfV5cLQ2J1T6dUkTPCOx608uo02-QYKfPF

 

Great stream had a mini vortex in it blew the fence down 

Enjoying this guy! Appears to be 'in the know' and keeps you updated whilst sat in his car in what may turn into 'ground Zero' ......

[AderynCoch]

40 minutes ago, andymusic said:

Matthews current track

Definitely looks like a contraction of the eye on that loop. Also looks like it has taken a jog to the west near Freeport, which must be getting a battering right now in the strongest part of the eyewall.

[Mapantz]

19 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Enjoying this guy! Appears to be 'in the know' and keeps you updated whilst sat in his car in what may turn into 'ground Zero' ......

He's a great storm chaser on the plains too, followed him for many years.

[Love Snow]

Does this storm seem to be moving really slow now?

[Love Snow]

Some interesting stats from The Weather Channel

storm has travelled nearly 2,000 miles so far

diameter is roughly the width of the state of Pennsylvania

mandatory evacuations spread over 500 miles of Florida coast.

[cheese]

1 hour ago, AderynCoch said:

Definitely looks like a contraction of the eye on that loop. Also looks like it has taken a jog to the west near Freeport, which must be getting a battering right now in the strongest part of the eyewall.

Yes, appears to have turned west. Weather Channel seem to think it will landfall around Cape Canaveral.

[alexisj9]

Eye is clear now, think it's restrengthening after leaving Grand Bahama.

[crimsone]

Of course, that white thing on the NOAA advisory map is a cone of probability. Whatever the black line says, the rack could prove better or worse on either side of it.

[Iceni]

Watching Trump in NH said 127 people in Haiti had lost their lives. Thought it was going to be 'a bad one'. I've got a friend who's on Cumberland Isalnd just off the coast on the GA/FLA border St Mary's where there's a nuclear sub base. There are 3 very beautiful ante-bellum mansions on the island and one is her hotel. I'd expect they'd have guests. Don't like the way it's staying just off shore because it gets its energy from a long sea track.

Edited October 7, 2016 by Iceni

[Love Snow]

Daytona Beach looks in big trouble here from the storm surge.

I went to Daytona beach a few days after Jeanne hit in 2004 and the impact was bad then so I can't imagine what a direct hit will do.

Edited October 7, 2016 by Love Snow