Hurricane Matthew

[Mucka]

Wrong thread sorry

Edited October 4, 2016 by Mucka

[Dale Hay]

GFS 00Z shows Matthew going up, but then curling for a 'round two' ... I'm hoping, for the folks there, the 00Z is having a slight '06Z moment'. :/

(Attachment: Tropical Tidbits)

[Iceberg]

Almost seems like some kind of fake model loop. Totally rubbish. Unless of course it's backed up by later nights model runs as well and....it was , 12z ecm had a loopy Matthew making a second landfall in Florida approx 4-5 days after the first landfall. The driver is an uber strong ridge which has good agreement and suddenly the total rubbish becomes a real possibility. 

Back to current time and Matthew has now Allier left Cuba. It's eye is much larger and elongated. But still has good structure. Again once it moves away from the coast it should readily strengthen. Pressure is currently 960. But as per the Haiti landfall the pressure field and hurricane wind field will have greatly expanded. 

All eyes now on how quickly Matthew gets his act together. 

[Iceberg]

Just going back through last nights recon whilst I was sleeping and it seems that Matthew intensified very quickly just prior the Cuba landfall pressure dropped back down to 940mb. 

[Iceberg]

Ecm and gfdl both recurve Matthew back toward the Bahamas after leaving the Carolinas. 

I think we will see the models playing with this a lot before anything is confirmed. 

[Gray-Wolf]

I think the loops are tied in with Nicole and her interaction with the ridge that was supposed to pin Matthew to the coast up the Eastern Seaboard? Nicole has developed faster than forecast and avoided the shear that was supposed to cap her development. This in turn pushes the ridge which, in turn, slams the door on Matthew pushing him back out and around the Bahamas a second time. I wonder if the surface of the ocean around the Bahamas will still have heat to re-intensify Matthew as it passes back over the region?

[pip22]

Matthew to Re-intensify to Cat 4 storm as it passes over Bahamas into Florida coast. It is currently a Cat 3 storm atm.

 

 

[summer blizzard]

Cuba took a bit out of Matthew so it will probably take him today to recover however conditions are near perfect and he's really not weak.

At any rate the good news is that Matthew has ensured that our seasonal ACE will be a tad above average for the first time since 2012 i believe. 

[Iceberg]

We almost have a ring of convection around a much more circular eye now for Matthew. Dvorak raw t numbers have also been increasing again for the last hr. 

gfs 06z seems to have a Matthew Florida love affair. It Hugs the side. Then turns around at n Carolina and comes back south. The does another turn near key west before heading north again. 

Never seen a path quite like it before in 15 years of hurricane watching. 

[summer blizzard]

Unless it's flagged then Matthew is back to 130mph although pressure is still 964mb.

Personally i think it will hit Florida on the first approach, it's been almost consistently west of the model tracks.

The eye is coming back..

Edited October 5, 2016 by summer blizzard

[Boro Snow]

9 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Unless it's flagged then Matthew is back to 130mph although pressure is still 964mb.

Personally i think it will hit Florida on the first approach, it's been almost consistently west of the model tracks.

The eye is coming back..

I thought winds had reduced to 115mph

[summer blizzard]

Just now, Boro Snow said:

I thought winds had reduced to 115mph

They had. Recon is back in and the eyewall has become better defined which means that the system can mix down the winds to the surface and stop bleeding pressure. The last pass recorded ~155mph at 925mb so it's still generating power and now seemingly getting more of it to the surface.

Would have to check the record books but one thing to note is that by Friday, Matthew will have spent 6 of 7 days at cat 4 or above. The way it's retained intensity is very impressive.

[Iceberg]

Pressure is already dropping and In to the 950's again. Quite a large swave of sub 980 pressure which for Matthew seems to be the hurricane wind field. 

We should see pressure fall and the cdo steady expand now. 

[summer blizzard]

Cloud tops are cooling, down to -60C now. 

Oh Dear Florida.. a 150mph cane on the way me thinks.

[summer blizzard]

11 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Pressure is already dropping and In to the 950's again. Quite a large swave of sub 980 pressure which for Matthew seems to be the hurricane wind field. 

We should see pressure fall and the cdo steady expand now. 

Out of interest what are your own thoughts on track now. I tend to think it will go west of the consensus since bar Haiti, it's always done that. But perhaps i'm just clouded by the potential. 

[Gael_Force]

5 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Would have to check the record books but one thing to note is that by Friday, Matthew will have spent 6 of 7 days at cat 4 or above. The way it's retained intensity is very impressive.

I saw a tweet yesterday saying it had already broken the October record.

Just to add this about records Matthew has broken.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/10/05/its-not-hype-hurricane-matthew-has-been-blasting-through-records/

Edited October 5, 2016 by Gael_Force

[Iceberg]

I think the nhc track should be spot on. The eye just skirting the Florida coast after landfall at west palm beach. 

The eye going back offshore at Jackson. After that I am. It sure tbh. 

[karyo]

A slight shift west on the 12z gfs.

Not what Florida wanted to see!

[Iceberg]

The 12z gfs again recurves after the Carolinas, crosses back over Florida and takes Matthew into the central gom. Biggest ace hurricane in history coming up ?

[Snow Queen one]

Nope I agree.  I am leaving Orlando Thursday am.  Orange County under hurricane watch now schools closing.  Mandetory evacuations of East coast today

[summer blizzard]

Oh wow, banding is about to completely circle the system.. Can't wait for the wind and pressure to respond.

This is what a zero shear system looks like..

[matty40s]

<blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Complete destruction in Baracoa, Cuba from a combination of extreme wind and storm surge. Sad situation here. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/HurricaneMatthew?src=hash">#HurricaneMatthew</a> <a href="https://t.co/JgUtW0vGjf">pic.twitter.com/JgUtW0vGjf</a></p>&mdash; Mike Theiss (@MikeTheiss) <a href="https://twitter.com/MikeTheiss/status/783674236506284037">October 5, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

Sad sights in Cuba -  Lord only knows what Haiti looms like.

[Gael_Force]

 

[Ice Day]

16 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

 

ECM looks worrying for Florida, it shows a direct hit to the east coast on Friday Morning/Afternoon and as above could do so as a Cat 4.  The only good news seems to be it's cooled on the idea of a 2nd hit a few days later.  Fingers crossed it's onto something on that front anyway.

Edited October 5, 2016 by Ice Day

[Ice Day]

 

Map showing area affected by above 64mph wind gusts.  

Edited October 5, 2016 by Ice Day