Hurricane Matthew

[Boro Snow]

3 hours ago, Chris.R said:

I remember a few years ago  Haiti  got battered by another hurricane and  there was a massive aid operation? How    Is this likely to   compare to that?  Or was that an earthquake? 

2010 they had an horrific earthquake but in 2008 I think it was they had 4 hurricanes/tropical storms in 30 days I believe ike was one and maybe Gustav was another, a lot of people died due to the amount of rain that fell causing landslides, just hope it's not as bad this time but I fear the worse 

[Iceberg]

Fiddly farts. Recon did another pass of the eye a few mins ago and the pressure has just started falling again, just dipping sub 950. Also 120+kt flight winds in both ne and sw quads and 145mph surface winds in the ne quad. 

All in all interaction with Haiti has been a walk in park for Matthew. Very unfortunate for Cuba and the Bahamas 

Edited October 4, 2016 by Iceberg

[Snow Queen one]

At coco beach now surf is up.  Still a lot of uncertainty here as to the track.  Been advised to fill up rental car and buy food as everything shuts for a few days.

[Snow Queen one]

Hurricane watch now isued for East coast of Florida

[Iceberg]

Eye leaving Haiti and approaching Cuba. Good eye wall. 

[Jack Wales]

Dropsonde data indicates surface level pressure of 949mb and surface winds of 123kts (141.5mph) detected.   Land interaction hasn't done much to inhibit Matthew. 

Cloud tops have warmed slightly but with the eye reforming expect pressures to drop once more. Not good news for the Bahamas. 

Edited October 4, 2016 by Jack Wales

[Iceberg]

Hwrf takes Matthew to a hit on the carolinas. 

Gfdl has a direct cat 5 hit of Miami. 

[summer blizzard]

UKMO also hit Florida apparently.

Hurricane force winds now extend 60 miles from the center (it was 40 before Haiti), the eye is now 30 miles across.

A very quick recovery from the core of Matthew.  

[Jack Wales]

18 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Hwrf takes Matthew to a hit on the carolinas. 

Gfdl has a direct cat 5 hit of Miami. 

I especially hope the Miami hit doesn't prevail.  As a cat 5, it would floor many of the concrete buildings and displace millions. 

In the meantime Cuba is next in the firing line. Baracoa should take a direct hit, here is the weather station which is worth keeping an eye on (pardon the pun)...

https://weather.com/en-GB/weather/today/l/CUXX0021:1:CU

[cowdog]

23 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Hwrf takes Matthew to a hit on the carolinas. 

Gfdl has a direct cat 5 hit of Miami. 

If this track doesn't shift surely the US will be calling a national emergency as this like a made for TV disaster movie script. Florida can handle hurricanes better than most places, but nowhere can really handle Cat 5's making landfall.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

This is beginning to look dire. Really hope them runs shown do not come off. It would be catastrophic for the eastern coast of Florida. 

Bizzarely, a couple of runs show Matthew doing a U turn and heading back south towards the Bahamas once more . would be a similar occurrence to hurricane Ivan in 2004. 

[pip22]

If Matthew not enough, Tropical Storm Nicole has been formed to the north east of Matthew. It may effect the movement of Matthew.

http://www.local10.com/weather/hurricane/tropical-storm-nicole-forms-in-atlantic-ocean

 

 

 

 

 

[Gael_Force]

31 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

UKMO also hit Florida apparently.

Hurricane force winds now extend 60 miles from the center (it was 40 before Haiti), the eye is now 30 miles across.

A very quick recovery from the core of Matthew.  

[Iceberg]

Solid Florida strike from the just released ecm at t72, my guess is that high res would make it CAT 4/5

Edited October 4, 2016 by Iceberg

[Iceberg]

Ecm at t96 shows ecm to be a beach hugger with the eye probably straggling maybe 10miles Inland all up the coast and probably the carolinas coast as well 

[Iceberg]

Superb graphic from the ecm run from Ryan shows perfectly the beach hugging up. 

[AderynCoch]

6 hours ago, Love Snow said:

I was in Florida back in 2004 when Hurricane Jeanne on a family Holiday.

It was a powerful storm and the wind was something else. We was in a villa near a lake and all night and day the lake was getting closer and closer to the complex. Luckily it never flooded we was without power for 12 hours but I thing the power gets cut as a precaution. I went outside for 5 minutes during the day and you couldn't stand up. 

The damage wasn't too bad in Orlando but we went to coast 5 days after the storm and you could see the damaged cause from the high tide and the sand was pushed all the way up the beach front picnic benches extra hidden under the sand.

It certainly was a experience I won't ever forget.

It's worth noting that Jeanne was only a tropical storm/depression when it neared Haiti yet it caused over 3000 deaths there. A mature, powerful hurricane moving slowly and carrying an unusually high amount of precipitation is a real recipe for disaster. We can only hope the rainfall forecasts (up to 40 inches) prove to have been overdone.

1 hour ago, Jack Wales said:

I especially hope the Miami hit doesn't prevail.  As a cat 5, it would floor many of the concrete buildings and displace millions. 

In the meantime Cuba is next in the firing line. Baracoa should take a direct hit, here is the weather station which is worth keeping an eye on (pardon the pun)...

https://weather.com/en-GB/weather/today/l/CUXX0021:1:CU

Renowned stormchaser Mike Theiss is riding it out in Baracoa: https://twitter.com/MikeTheiss

Baracoa does have a degree of shelter as it faces northwards to the ocean. Guantanamo is a westward wobble away from getting shafted.

I think the Bahamas are really in the firing line though. A larger, reorganised Matthew restrengthening over warm seas has the potential to become a real monster storm.

 

 

[summer blizzard]

The worlds best performing global models (Euro and UKMO) both slam him into Florida and then miss the trough, loop and then the Euro slams him again and gets into the Gulf. 

Three days out and the GFS disagrees. 

If i were in the US, i'd start to worry. There's a reasonable chance that the 11 year streak is about to break in some style. 

[matty40s]

This could well be the most expensive hurricane ever, hopefully not in human cost, but in insurance costs if the tracks now modelled come off.

[Snow Queen one]

Hurricane watch now in force Orlando in firing line for cat 4 storm.

Coco beach mandetory evacuations weds eve

 

[A.J]

never has Hurricane imagery been more apt (if you see what I see!)

[Boro Snow]

Skeletor

[Allseasons-Si]

Looks like Terminator .

Edited October 4, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[lassie23]

Beeb think it will go up the Eastern seaboard of the USA

[bobbydog]

48 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

never has Hurricane imagery been more apt (if you see what I see!)

Haiti....

Baron Samedi...