Hurricane Matthew

[summer blizzard]

Oh wow.. i think i've almost seen the weather variant of perfection..

As bad as things will be in Haiti, one feels wary of what the Bahamas will get.

[Nouska]

This hurricane has a double whammy as far as extreme precipitation is concerned - another peculiar 'blob' to add the growing number in meteorology.

Dr. J. Marshall Shepherd discusses possible land/atmospheric interactions as the cause.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2016/10/03/why-have-we-seen-a-blob-east-of-hurricane-matthews-eye-and-why-it-should-concern-us/#19cbf4f63926

For more insight I reached out to tropical cyclone expert Dr. Stephanie Zick, a professor at Virginia Tech.  She agrees with my assertion and adds, “I think there are multiple factors: 1) the stationary band complex, so there would be confluence downshear (east of the TC center), but combined with, 2) a surge in the trade winds and 3) confluence downstream of the South American landmass/terrain. Professor Zick also added, “another factor (albeit more speculative) that I think might be enhancing the convection is a working hypothesis that asymmetries can develop during landfall as drier air from over land moves over the moist boundary layer (modifying moist static stability)."

[AderynCoch]

1 hour ago, Jack Wales said:

With the eye of Matthew now approaching the Haiti coast, here is the current reading from Les Cayes (probably in the eyewall) showing winds of 103mph...

https://weather.com/en-GB/weather/today/l/18.20,-73.75

116mph from the south now. Right in the eastern eyewall.

Dread to think what Haiti is going to look like after this. Most people are poor and live in ramshackle accommodation. Then there's the huge amounts of rain across the entire country.

[Jack Wales]

The eye of Matthew has made landfall on the western tip of Haiti whilst the system exhibits the classic doughnut shape often seen with Cat 5's.  It'll be interesting to see what recon come back with in the next hour.

[Jack Wales]

4 minutes ago, AderynCoch said:

116mph from the south now. Right in the eastern eyewall.

Dread to think what Haiti is going to look like after this. Most people are poor and live in ramshackle accommodation. Then there's the huge amounts of rain across the entire country.

Yes AderynCoch, Les Cayes has a population of just under 100k so I really feel for them atm. That station only dropped to 989mb so 109mph on the outskirts of the eyewall is immense! 

[mezzacyclone]

940mb 18.283N 74.267W 104mph est avg surf winds, maybe fluctuations under estimating winds?

*upd*: 130mph avg surf wind 10 miles of Haiti SW coast near earlier eye landfall.

Edited October 4, 2016 by mezzacyclone

[AderynCoch]

Les Cayes

[summer blizzard]

Mountains are tall enough to be disrupting the circulation it seems however the northern eyewall is back over water and repairing it's eyewall may be the excuse it needs to start tightening up again.

I expect a cat 5 again over the southern Bahamas.

[Snow Queen one]

News reports here say major cat 3 hurricane will hit central Florida.  Eye should stay offshore but will effect all of East coast Florida.  Warnings expected late morning here. Time where I am is 8.40 am should have warnings issued by 10 am.   I am not staying around to see this one come in lol 

[Polar Bear]

26 minutes ago, AderynCoch said:

Les Cayes

In case anyone couldn't get that video to work here is another link for it

 

[Jack Wales]

26 minutes ago, AderynCoch said:

Les Cayes

As I feared AderynCoch, especially as Matthew is moving so slowly which prolongs the exposure to the extreme conditions.   The wind is still blowing at 110mph there, that's continous 100mph+ wind speed for over three hours!

Recon data shows maximum surface winds at 136mph and interestingly their SFMR data at around 990mb is consistent with the wind speeds being observed at Les Cayes.

Agree with SB, with low shear and warm SST's there is nothing to prevent restrengthening.

[Chris.R]

I remember a few years ago  Haiti  got battered by another hurricane and  there was a massive aid operation? How    Is this likely to   compare to that?  Or was that an earthquake? 

Edited October 4, 2016 by Chris.R

[Love Snow]

I was in Florida back in 2004 when Hurricane Jeanne on a family Holiday.

It was a powerfull storm and the wind was something else. We was in a villa near a lake and all night and day the lake was getting closer and closer to the complex. Luckily it never flooded we was without power for 12 hours but I thing the power gets cut as a precaution. I went outside for 5 minutes during the day and you couldn't stand up. 

The damage wasn't too bad in Orlando but we went to coast 5 days after the storm and you could see the damaged cause from the high tide and the sand was pushed all the way up the beach front picnic benches extra hidden under the sand.

It certainly was a experience I won't ever forget.

[summer blizzard]

34 minutes ago, Snow Queen one said:

News reports here say major cat 3 hurricane will hit central Florida.  Eye should stay offshore but will effect all of East coast Florida.  Warnings expected late morning here. Time where I am is 8.40 am should have warnings issued by 10 am.   I am not staying around to see this one come in lol 

Nonsense. You have to go buy a webcam, make sure you have a secure connection and then report for us. How often do we get Netweather members in such an idea place. 

Being realistic, running is probably a good idea. GFS sent it sub 930mb just offshore this morning.

[cheese]

Even if it doesn't make a direct landfall in Florida, hurricane force winds are looking very likely for eastern Florida on Thursday with the eye just offshore. This area of Florida has been lucky in recent years even though it has some of the highest hurricane recurrence rates in the US (with the counties of south Florida being the highest).

Edited October 4, 2016 by cheese

[cheese]

27 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

I remember a few years ago  Haiti  got battered by another hurricane and  there was a massive aid operation? How    Is this likely to   compare to that?  Or was that an earthquake? 

Pretty sure that was an earthquake..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Haiti_earthquake

Around 160,000 people died. That's like the entire population of Oxford or Preston all dying at once. Shows how vulnerable they are. This is the last thing they need.

Edited October 4, 2016 by cheese

[Snow Queen one]

This one is following a track similar to Floyd 

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, Snow Queen one said:

This one is following a track similar to Floyd 

Hazel.

[summer blizzard]

Recon have found 125KT so it seems the first landfall caused no real damage. 

Pressure did actually increase to 950mb.

Edited October 4, 2016 by summer blizzard

[cheese]

5 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Hazel.

Almost identical, though this one will hit the Bahamas head on and will probably track closer to Florida.

[Zephyr]

Does anyone know how Mathew affected Aruba at all? As my Uncle is on holiday over there.

[summer blizzard]

6 minutes ago, Zephyr said:

Does anyone know how Mathew affected Aruba at all? As my Uncle is on holiday over there.

Outer bands so he had rain and at worst TS strength winds. 

Essentially, just a very wet British day. 

[Zephyr]

17 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Outer bands so he had rain and at worst TS strength winds. 

Essentially, just a very wet British day. 

Thanks very much for that.

[Iceberg]

The interaction with Haiti has done the expected. The eye and inner eye wall will have become much weaker. Pressure will have risen upto 950mb. 

The negative points though are that the pressure and hurricane wind fields have greatly expanded. 

Once Matthews good banding has a source of energy under neath it the eye will redeveloped and probably contract leading to 930ish pressure and CAT 4 or 5 winds. This has been consistently shown by the tropical models. 

12z gfs in trickling out and shows Matthews eye kissing the coast from the keys to Moorhead city. 

 

Edited October 4, 2016 by Iceberg

[Iceberg]

Bugger. 

The eye is already starting to rapidly reform. I wasn't expecting it for another 12 hrs.