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Hurricane Matthew


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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

UKMO op sticks to it's Florida bashing solution. Oddly persistent.

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GEFS has had a large westward shift as well it seems.

Still have no idea how Matthew has been able to maintain Category 4 intensity this whole time - It has been through a pretty sheared environment, upwelling has cooled SST's significantly under the storm given its slow movement speed, and looking at the microwave imagery, it seems that the ERC has pretty much completed. As soon as it turns more to the north, speeds up a little and goes over warmer waters again there really doesn't seem to be much to stop it from re-intensifying to a cat 5

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Here's the gfdl. Very similar east coast bash after taking hurricane winds all up the Florida coast. 

Hitting with an 931 eye cat 4-5.

 

IMG_0430.PNG

Edited by Iceberg
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

^^ South Carolina landfall. Hasn't been a major hurricane for South Carolina for many years.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Current recon are finding more cat 4 surface winds and pressure just falling a touch. Sat representation looks good and raw t numbers have just gone back up to 6.8 which is very high end CAT 4. 

 

To add hwrf has just reached the point where Matthew makes landfall in North Carolina. 

Ecm will be interesting. 

But regardless I think considerable movement in models until Matthew gets to the Bahamas.  

Edited by Iceberg
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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

Out of range of radar??....

 

I am struggling to find any live coverage or even webcams on Jamaica of worth, it seem amazing in this day and age that so little local information is available.

 

 

Edited by matty40s
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
54 minutes ago, matty40s said:

Out of range of radar??....

 

I am struggling to find any live coverage or even webcams on Jamaica of worth, it seem amazing in this day and age that so little local information is available.

https://www.cityofkingston.ca/explore/springer-market-square/webcam

the best of what I have found

Yeah can't find much for Haiti or Cuba either. The best I have found is a bit too far away in the Dominican Republic

http://www.discoverbayahibe.com/bayahibe-webcam/

 

Montego bay but it is stills updated every few seconds.

http://www.secretsresorts.com/wild-orchid-montego-bay/photos-videos

 

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

20161003_1916_f15.x.85h_1deg.14LMATTHEW.

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, very hot weather, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.

I think there is a potential for this hurricane to hit New York. Some models seems to track past the strip of North Carolina land into the Mid-Atlantic States.

https://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at201614_model.gif

 

 

 

 

Edited by pip22
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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
49 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Yeah can't find much for Haiti or Cuba either. The best I have found is a bit too far away in the Dominican Republic

http://www.discoverbayahibe.com/bayahibe-webcam/

 

Montego bay but it is stills updated every few seconds.

http://www.secretsresorts.com/wild-orchid-montego-bay/photos-videos

 

you can delete that one I linked, its not the right Kingston!!:D

 

 

interesting to see that the GFS has finally realised the UKMET was right all along!

 

000 WTNT44 KNHC 032035 TCDAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 PM EDT MON OCT 03 2016 Matthew's structure has not changed much today. The most recent Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission found peak SFMR winds of 124 kt on their last pass through the northeastern eyewall, and a peak flight-level wind of 118 kt. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity is held at 120 kt for this advisory. The central pressure has been steady around 940 mb for much of the day. Matthew's satellite presentation remains impressive, with a 15 n mi wide eye surrounded by convective tops of -80C or colder and excellent outflow, especially poleward. Little change in intensity is expected during the next couple of days, with the exception of some possible weakening due to land interaction with Haiti and eastern Cuba. However, there could be fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall cycles that are difficult to predict. While Matthew is expected to be a little weaker once it moves into the Bahamas as the shear increases somewhat and the ocean heat content decreases a little, it is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane through the next 5 days, as shown by the global models. The new NHC intensity forecast is close to or a little above the latest intensity consensus through 4 days and is closest to the GFDL model at day 5. Matthew is now moving a little to the east of due north, or 010/06. The short term track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as the hurricane will move generally northward for the next 24 to 36 hours around the western periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge. The new NHC track forecast during this time has been nudged eastward toward the latest multi-model consensus aids, and continues to show the core of the dangerous hurricane moving near or over the southwestern peninsula of Haiti tonight and near or over eastern Cuba on Tuesday. At 48 hours and beyond, the GFS has trended sharply westward, and now is in agreement with the UKMET and ECMWF in showing the western extent of the Atlantic subtropical ridge nosing north of Matthew across the Carolinas in 3-4 days. This results in Matthew taking a more northwesterly track across the Bahamas, and closer to the Florida peninsula during this time. The UKMET is farthest west, with a track over the east coast of Florida and into South Carolina in 4-5 days. The GFS, ECMWF, and the GFDL model are a little farther east and remain close to but offshore of Florida. The GFDL and GFS are close to southeastern North Carolina by day 5, while the ECMWF is slower. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted significantly westward at days 3-5, and now lies near the middle of the guidance envelope and close to the ECMWF/GFS blend. While there remains significant uncertainty in the track of Matthew in the long range, the threat to Florida and the southeastern U.S. coast has increased. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in portions of the watch and warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological services and other government officials in those countries. 2. Direct hurricane impacts are possible in Florida later this week. Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches could be issued sometime tonight or early tomorrow for portions of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys. 3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on the remainder of the U.S. east coast. At a minimum, very dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend

Edited by matty40s
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Posted
  • Location: Tonyrefail (175m asl)
  • Location: Tonyrefail (175m asl)

Recon data just in shows pressure drop to 934mb however no adjustment to surface level winds with maximums of 135mph recorded. This maintains Matthew at Cat 4 (at least) and forward speed seems to have slowed in the last couple of hours as he wobbles just east of due north.  

Still presenting well in the imagery, although there are signs of the moisture envelope being somewhat cut off by the Hispanola land mass which should induce some weakening. 

At the moment the eyewall track is over a sparsley populated area of Haiti, however the wider risk of flooding and mudslides are likely to pose the greatest risks Imo...

 

rb0-1.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Tonyrefail (175m asl)
  • Location: Tonyrefail (175m asl)
9 minutes ago, Snow Queen one said:

Matthew seems to want to come visit me in Florida.  Going to be driving from Orlando to ft Myers Friday so hope I can make it.  Rain here is insane humid loads of storms.

I just missed Hermaine when I was over there a couple of weeks ago.   Good luck and stay safe.

Edited by Jack Wales
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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone
  • Location: Maidstone

State of emergency declared in all states of Florida.  Governor issued it to enable evacuation and shelter to be available.  Track has moved slightly West again.  I have to admit I am worried.  I have to drive from Orlando to Ft Myers Friday am.  But Matthew is due to hit here Thurs night.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Being on the west coast of Florida it should be fine, going from curent models 

Models have shifted further west again with good agreement on the eye maybe hitting the coast directly east of Orlando and then travelling just offshore in a ne turn all the way to n Carolina. 

IMG_0433.PNG

Edited by Iceberg
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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

Western part of Haiti now directly in firing line after the overnight wobble, 145 mph winds and THAT rain!!

I would say now that we are very unlikely ever to see the name Matthew used again in storm naming.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Trend west of #Matthew track continues:

 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Big win for the UKMO potentially. For days it stuck to a Florida hit and then went as far north as South Carolina but all indications suggest it has the hit.

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