Hurricane Matthew

[mezzacyclone]

avg surface winds 130mph 13.417N 73.267W region, 942mb, not suffering much at all despite any EWRC & an embedded centre? Dvorak lowered minimally.

Slowing down to start the ominous turn NW-wards?

[MR EXTREMES]

http://www.13newsnow.com/weather/hurricane-center/hurricane-matthew-now-a-category-5/328167092

apparently there has never been a hurricaine thats tracked this far south on one news weather channel using records going back to late 1800s

[Iceberg]

I've been scanning the visual loops but can't find any evidence of a northward turn yet, still west or even a touch south despite being for each to turn to the north from 12 onwards. 

Recon looks to have returned back which is a shame. 

[knocker]

 

[knocker]

 

[Singularity]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

I had a genuine WTH Moment (What The Hell Moment) when I loaded this up and saw that

a) The pinhole eye is still going, and

b) That eye has moved southwest in the period 14:15-16:15, during which period all of the models plus the NHC track (naturally given the models) had it moving northwest.

There's some serious discrepancy going on and I'm struggling to envision what this might mean for the future behaviour of the cyclone.

I did wonder if perhaps friction with the South American landmass in the SE flank has caused the SW motion - but it's only the outer bands that are moving over the land so that seems unlikely. A more probable explanation (but still difficult to believe) is that the persistent heavy convection to the east of the cyclone is somehow driving a Fujiwara Effect - but as far as I know this requires a second cyclone, with strong upper level outflow and everything, in order to work...?

[Iceberg]

Just readin your post and realised that I wrote the below but forgot to post it !

brw just checking the 12z initialisations in detail gfs and hwrf both fail re how far south it is already 

 

Matthew looks to be strengthening to me and also moving sw.  

Ive got a feeling they are connected and the increased convection in the sw quad is pulling it and offering the weak pull of the lifting ridge. 

[Iceberg]

Fwiw gfs has an NC glancing blow before moving up the coast. 

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Looks like its moving SW to me, have no clue what its doing anymore...

[Iceberg]

Recon has just done a centre past everything pretty much as it has been all day no pressure loss which is surprising given the dry air and ragged appearance . Centre at 13.09N

[Evening thunder]

I've occasionally noticed small/pinhole eyes doing some kind of "trochoidal oscillation" as if they were not at the very centre of rotation of the storm's mass as a whole.. Hurricane Wilma was a good example with an excellent satellite animation (the 2nd one) here: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/657
(Edit: it almost seems like it was rotating around the edge of an attempt at a larger eye/eye wall replacement (which does occur later)

Not sure how common or well recognised such motion is.. but perhaps the recent SW motion (actually very slow and more direct S in the latest frames) could be due in part to a similar effect with Matthew?

Edited October 1, 2016 by Evening thunder

[Iceberg]

There could be some internal rotation. But the entire cdo is also moving sw. 

Latest sats indicate that the red colder cloud tops now circle the eye again after largely disappearing. Also signs that the ultra cold grays are starting to wrap

[knocker]

1200z

 

[Gael_Force]

39 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

I've occasionally noticed small/pinhole eyes doing some kind of "trochoidal oscillation" as if they were not at the very centre of rotation of the storm's mass as a whole.. Hurricane Wilma was a good example with an excellent satellite animation (the 2nd one) here: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/657
(Edit: it almost seems like it was rotating around the edge of an attempt at a larger eye/eye wall replacement (which does occur later)

Not sure how common or well recognised such motion is.. but perhaps the recent SW motion (actually very slow and more direct S in the latest frames) could be due in part to a similar effect with Matthew?

I'm quite sure I've seen this before, where hard right turn is expected: I think it was Sandy but cannot say for sure. The system did a loop-de-loop and commenced north movement once circle completed.

[Singularity]

There's been enough eastward movement in the last hour to give me the impression that there is indeed a cyclonic loop of the eye taking place, which may be a precursor to a change in net movement starting within the next 12 hours or so.

I was pretty alarmed for a time there but it may just have been the excitement of the most powerful system since I started paying close attention to the tropics (in 2010) getting to my head a bit!

[summer blizzard]

6 hours ago, MR EXTREMES said:

http://www.13newsnow.com/weather/hurricane-center/hurricane-matthew-now-a-category-5/328167092

apparently there has never been a hurricaine thats tracked this far south on one news weather channel using records going back to late 1800s

Ivan 04 holds most of the strength at a southerly latitude records.

2 hours ago, Iceberg said:

Fwiw gfs has an NC glancing blow before moving up the coast. 

Cuts through the outer banks in the same way it does Cuba so there is a landfall in the Carolina's.

UKMO is almost a Florida hit. 

[Vorticity0123]

34 minutes ago, Singularity said:

There's been enough eastward movement in the last hour to give me the impression that there is indeed a cyclonic loop of the eye taking place, which may be a precursor to a change in net movement starting within the next 12 hours or so.

Quite interesting to see the looping motion within Matthew evolving. It could indeed be the onset of a northward turn. Would it also mean that the track of Matthew would turn out to be further to the east given the eastward looping of the eye?

What does appear new to me is the spiral banding structure to the west of Matthew. This could indicate that shear is lessening and outflow is developing on that side of the circulation. At least it appears that Matthew is becoming healthier again. Whether this is a prelude to more intensification remains to be seen though, especially since subtle inner core dynamics are hard to forecast.

 

Source: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/14L_floater.html

Edited October 1, 2016 by Vorticity0123

[Daniel*]

 

Edited October 1, 2016 by Changing Skies.

[Iceberg]

Still waiting for Matthew to figure out which way it's going. 

But while he's doing that raw Dvorak t numbers has increased quite a lot recently.  Also the recon currently in are finding a better and better eye with surface winds back to 140-145 mph. 

Next advisory might even be an increase 

[summer blizzard]

Strengthening again according to recon.. 942mb, 128KT at the surface.

[Iceberg]

Pressure falling still now sub 940mb. Recon have just found the lowest pressure recorded for Matthew. 

[Iceberg]

Latest nhc update ups Matthew again to 150mph just 7 mph off a cat 5.

have to say Matthew hasn't done anything he was meant to do over this 6 hr period. He's stronger when he was predicted not to strengthen and has gone backwards when he was meant to go nw. 

 

[Gael_Force]

30 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

have to say Matthew hasn't done anything he was meant to do over this 6 hr period. He's stronger when he was predicted not to strengthen and has gone backwards when he was meant to go nw. 

This must be a very testing time for the professionals on whose judgement, lots of decisions will depend.

 

[summer blizzard]

Such a weird and curvy track like Sandy..

Here we have a weakness that it's headed toward (albeit slowly)..

Replaced by ridging that pushes it NW towards the coast (some models like the UKMO have even stronger ridging)..

Which weakens to the point that it kicked by a trough (GFS has it kicked just about at landfall, Euro kicks it before)..

..

Unlike the Ivan track to landfall which was a nice curve round a ridge, this one is complex and wobbly. 

[knocker]

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 73.4 West. Matthew is currently drifting toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), and a slow northwestward motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north-northwest with an increase in forward speed are expected Sunday, followed by a turn toward the north on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will approach Jamaica and southwestern Haiti on Monday. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft is 940 mb (27.76 inches).

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/302049.shtml?