Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Hurricane Matthew


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Dvorak adjusted gives a cat 4. 

Dvorak raw(more variable) approaches 130kts. 

I dont like doing this but it's time to mention the unmentionable CAT 5....

a cat 5 needs almost perfect inflow and outflow normally at least dual channel. 

We are not there yet. It the potential is available. 

If anybody needs remembering about cat 5 effects. It's worth reading them on the nhc education section. 

For jamaica this is very bad news. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

My dream to. How to survive the 140mph winds though is the problem :)

"Matthew has continued to rapidly strengthen at a remarkable rate today. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a peak SFMR wind of 116 kt and flight-level winds of 121 kt. A recent dropsonde from the aircraft indicated that surface winds are around 120 kt. Based on all of these data, the initial intensity is set to 120 kt, an increase of 55 kt in the last 24 hours. The latest pressure estimate from the aircraft is 949 mb, a drop of 44 mb since this time yesterday. Some additional strengthening is possible in the next 12 hours or so, and the NHC forecast reflects that possibility, showing 125 kt at that time. Given the lack of skill of the intensity guidance thus far, this remains a low confidence forecast, and its possible this could be conservative."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Re Jamaica. 

Latest nhc tracks Matthew approx 25 miles or so to the east of Kingston as a major hurricane. 

Given the size of eye will likely be 15 miles or so preperarions will need to start now. 140mph surface winds currently which will level all but the strongest of concrete buildings. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

vis0-lalo.gif

ScreenHunter_265%2520Sep.%252030%252013.

GOES17152016274YVgkIA.jpg

vis0.gif.d1d37427da395aa5ab5eb4f4d8d6134

44f9c66bf16ab7185b041714651cdf55.gif&key

..

This thing is incredible. 

Firstly we can visibly see that it's a pretty storm and when you chop off the eastern blob of convection you can see that it has a bit of a rugby ball look to it. This is the look that the Pacific canes get, that Joaquin had and that Earl had upon landfall albeit we sadly never got to see it bomb.

Secondly, at about 15mb up in the atmosphere the winds increase to 176mph so if this thing gets deeper those may start to mix down to the surface.

..

Those in Jamaca and Cuba will in all likelyhood be staring down the barrel of a cat 4/5.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: s yorks
  • Weather Preferences: c'mon thunder
  • Location: s yorks

941mb, 150mph surface peaks, 140mph sustained surface winds, 13.8N 71.5W roughly 450 SE of kingston town,

the pouch & wave that became 97L is now fully mature hurricane Matthew ready to devastate any land in his path.

todays RI has been amazing!

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Recon is back in.. 941mb... 132KT at the surface.

A few more passes like that and we'll have an upgrade to 150mph.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Updated advisory.. 945mb, 150mph.

Matthew will be category 5 by morning. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

As expected and as feared Matthew now a CAT 5..

one of the strongest hurricanes in living memory. 

It still has over 10 days left of its life and numerous populated islands to affect

"An Air Force reconnaissance plane recently measured a peak SFMR wind of 143 kt and then 138 kt during this mission's eye penetrations. Furthermore, the satellite presentation has improved considerably with a distinct eye surrounded by a ring of very deep convection. The raw objective T-numbers from UW-CIMSS have been above 7.0 since 2100 UTC. On this basis, the initial intensity has been increased to 140 kt, making Matthew a Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This is the first Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin since Hurricane Felix in 2007."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Imagine standing on a hill, it's a sunny summer day with temperatures of around 30c. You can see for maybe 6-7 miles in all directions.

Now imagine that 5 miles out in alll directions is a wall of cloud that reaches from the floor to 50000 ft up, but you can still see a bit of blue sky above up.

The bottom of the wall of cloud it's still 30c, at the top of the wall of cloud it's -80c.. you can hear a deafening noise that is still 5 miles away. In the wall is constant lightning everywhere..the winds in the wall are 150mph the speed of a formula 1 car.  In the distance at the bottom of the wall you can just see and hear trees in the distance being picked up seemingly thrown around.

you will have around 30 mins or so until the wall hits you and you die.

Taken from Nhc " Category 157 mph or higher
137 kt or higher
252 km/h or higherCatastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months."

I still remember and will do for the rest of my life the last time a cat 5 zeroed i on a populated area, a well know hurricane called Katrina. This was the nhc discussion that myself and others posted on net weather for Katrina.

000 WWUS74 KLIX 281550 NPWLIX URGENT — WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28, 2005 ...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED... HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH... RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE. HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK. POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS. THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED. AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE!

 

JAMAICA NEEDS TO BE EVACUATED ON THE EAST SIDE. This includes Kingston the capital..

Category 5 hurricanes make their own weather as they affect the entire atmosphere and models do not take this into account ATM imho. It will likely be more difficult to steer and change course pushing it further over Kingston.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: s yorks
  • Weather Preferences: c'mon thunder
  • Location: s yorks

Matthew continues to surprise then,,,

still under 270degs tracking, deeper & deeper dvorak numbers, only the most recent slight digest of drier air into the NW sector that will be shrugged off, have any ewrc's taken place or has he just tightened up more & more?

However i'm not 100% convinced of the plots? as if the short term paths have been incorrect then whats to place trust in the longer term?

Matthew was  already further West yesterday than the initial models and a lot of folk would very well wish a saving path right into mexico would continue akin to Emily?,,,But the developing trough over the GOM makes this more or less impossible hence northern turn.

But in most likelihood of the turn today then:

Jamaica's population is 2.8 million, half of which is urban, the loss of life is impossible to judge accurately but Matthew will be the breaking news Monday across the world, according to current trajectory where fatalities could well run into hundreds?

Yet it cant be denied that landfall by a major 'cane  in the Atlantic GOM etc basin was well overdue?

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

Strange 'double yolk' appearance on IR. Don't think I've seen this type of signature before; almost as if he has his own fuel tank following on. Overnight GFS has a worst case scenario with so many high density population centres areas under threat.

tropical_ge_4km_ir4_floater_1.gif

 

Edited by Gael_Force
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

Landfall as a Cat 5 hurricane is pretty rare.. none of the big 2005 storms made landfall as a Cat 5, though Hurricane Dean in 2007 did manage it when it devastated the Yucatan and of course Hurricane Patricia last year.

Edited by cheese
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

It has been fascinating watching this grow from almost nothing to this monster in 3 days.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
1 hour ago, Iceberg said:

Matthew has now dipped to a cat 4, but with no recon since the upgrade it's all really unknown. 

Lots of uncertainty still 

The last recon found evidence of a pending eyewall replacement cycle so we could see a decline to cat 3 before strengthening on approach to Jamaica. 

1 hour ago, Gael_Force said:

Strange 'double yolk' appearance on IR. Don't think I've seen this type of signature before; almost as if he has his own fuel tank following on. Overnight GFS has a worst case scenario with so many high density population centres areas under threat.

tropical_ge_4km_ir4_floater_1.gif

 

It's a banding feature that just looks a bit odd because the storm was moving SW (may be starting to make the turn northward now) and because there was a bit of SW shear (hence all the extra mass that these systems surround themselves with is all on the east side). 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Looking at the latest model runs and exempting those who have a quick getaway (still possible but the trend is much slower) i find it odd that no model really strengthens it again despite the fact that by day 4 (past it landfalls) the data suggests that shear will be near zero, sea temperatures will be even warmer than now, the atmosphere will be more moist and the system will be slower (reduced relative shear). 

While i suspect this will go into Jamaica/Cuba at cat 4 and weaken to 2, if the environment is as the analysis suggests then those runs showing stupid pressure drops near the Bahamas may not be too far off the mark. 

Incidently i'd add another 3 things..

1) We left September with a little below average ACE against the rolling total, Matthew probably ensures that we'll have an above average season. 

2) Our seasonal total is now 13/5/2 making the NHC forecast correct (most active since 2012)

3) SHIP's suggests a 91% chance of a ERC within the next 24-36 hours.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: s yorks
  • Weather Preferences: c'mon thunder
  • Location: s yorks

It amazed me how it almost doubled in strength (wind speed) for 12 hrs from 6pm yesterday evening to this morning!!!!

thats Ultra-RI?

rinse n repeat through the Bahamas?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Recon found a closed eye. It could well be one of those occasions where the eye is so strong and erc struggles. 

The core was quite elongated, but recon found some evidence of partial attempts at erc. 

There does seem to be an attempt at another go at intensification with a feeder band showing some significant instability and cold cloud tops shooting up some towers. 

Raw t numbers are still high. 

Overall ragged, but maintaining with further chances of intensification 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...