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Hurricane Matthew


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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Recon has shown that Matthew has just been sampled at 975mb. With flight winds of 99kt he is already a boarderline cat 2. 

Given the fall on presure it's certainly close to ri classification. 

Curent models are increasing the chance of an east side Jamaican hit. Beyond that various possible land interactions are forecast. 

The cdo has tightened and the core become well organised. 

Personally i would like to see what the ecm makes of the path once it's started the turn north. 

The unfortunate truth though is that. Jamaica looks to be hit by major hurricane, with nothing to stop further intensification in the short term. 

Finally the system is intensifying more than the current nhc prediction, they have consistently said that they may be being conservative.  

IMG_0414.GIF

Edited by Iceberg
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

 

000 WTNT64 KNHC 300518 TCUAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 120 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2016 Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Matthew has rapidly strengthened and that the maximum sustained winds are now near 100 mph (160 km/h). A special advisory will be issued by 2 AM AST to update the intensity forecast. $$ Forecaster Beven

 

special update from the nhc just released. With massively cold tops and huge electrical energy in the eye wall this is the angriest hurricane I've seen for several years. Current raw Dvorak would give a 90kt but it going up hourly. 

An update to 85kts is on the cards. 

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
Quote

 

 

HURRICANE MATTHEW SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 200 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2016 This special advisory is being issued in lieu of the scheduled intermediate advisory due to the rapid strengthening of Matthew during the past few hours. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported flight-level winds of 99 kt in the northern eyewall at 700 mb, along with surface wind estimates of 80-85 kt from the SFMR instrument. In addition, the central pressure has fallen to 979 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 85 kt. This also requires significant changes to the intensity forecast, which now calls for Matthew to reach major hurricane status in 24 hours and maintain it through 96 hours. It is unclear how long the rapid strengthening will continue, and the revised forecast could be conservative.

 

sorry for yet another update but it's unusual for nhc to be issuing these kinds of interim full updates and the effects on the islands could be significant. 

Now officially a cat 2

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 35% is 6.4 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.6 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 6.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%)

Amazingly this thing will actually be in an even more moist, warmer sea and lower shear environment at day 5 than it is now so there's nothing to prevent strengthening bar landfall. 

Edited by summer blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Recon are just about to re enter Matthew. Last few frames from radar indicate the eye still pretty much intact. A few wobbles and openings but not to bad. 

Sat is showing a little bit of clearing of the eye. 

IMG_0416.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Matthew is still currently bombing and under rapid intensification RI

 

recon on first pass have found pressure down to 967mb. 

Winds are still responding but incredibly it looks to have just started another bout of strengthening. 

Path will be over Jamaica imho. 

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Recon has had a good poke around in the eye. Lots of sub 970mb pressure and flight winds of over 100kts in the wall. Surface winds of 95-100kts have been found so it's a board line cat 3 major now. It could either way in the next update depending on what else recon finds. 

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Posted
  • Location: Tonyrefail (175m asl)
  • Location: Tonyrefail (175m asl)

Mathew continues to intensify with the eye now clearly discernable in visible imagery.   Unsurprisingly it's now up to 100kt with no real impediments ahead of it over the next couple of days.   This could be pretty devastating for Jamaica and Cuba.

 

vis0-2.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Hurricane Matthew Rapidly Intensifies to Category 3 Strength

Quote

Hurricane Matthew put on an impressive and unexpected display of rapid intensification overnight, becoming the Caribbean's first major hurricane since Sandy of 2012. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft was in Matthew on Friday morning, and between 7 am and 10 am EDT found that Matthew’s winds continued to rise and the pressure to fall. Surface winds measured by their stepped frequency microwave radiometer (SFMR) were as high as 114 mph, and flight-level winds at 10,000 feet hit 118 mph, putting Matthew at minimal Category 3 strength. Between 7 am and 10 am, Matthew’s central pressure fell 3 mb, to 968 mb.
 

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/hurricane-matthew-rapidly-intensifies-to-category-3-strength

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Posted
  • Location: s yorks
  • Weather Preferences: c'mon thunder
  • Location: s yorks

NHC have not "erred" on the side of caution and underestimated intensity?

Jamaica in the firing line for a devastating weekend?

Matthews certainly proving not to be a usual run-of-the-mill cyclone?

centre currently just under 500mile SE of kingston Town.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

I think the nhc have been a bit too cautious.  Matthew should not be anything more than a cat 1 with the still progged sw 20kt shear. However the added moisture being pulled in and the shear being so close to land has led to a classic cane. 

Currently the really powerful winds are quite restricted, what we don't need is for an ewrc to occur and distribute the tight pressure drop. 

Still jamaica could suffer quite badly. Further down the line we have a lot of scenarios that are not yet worth considering too much. 

The last vortex drop measured 105kt+ at surface maybe enough for another upgrade. 

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Pressure falls further now 956 and 957. 

Just adding something. 

I checked the raw Dvorak numbers and they have shot upto 6. This would support a cat 4 hurricane. 

There is little doubt for me that if the core just stays intact a cat 4 will be reached in the next 48 hrs as the winds respond to the pressure lag 

Edited by Iceberg
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

The time of day for a visual sat. Fantastic outflow and shows Matthew as a real engine. 

Good eye and looking every bit a cat 4 in waiting. 

Re it's closeness to the coast it's certainly not showing signs of the west straight travel ATM 

IMG_0421.PNG

Edited by Iceberg
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Posted
  • Location: s yorks
  • Weather Preferences: c'mon thunder
  • Location: s yorks
17 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Pressure falls further now 956 and 957. 

& last VDM confirming L. Closed Wall (= indicating eyewall completely surrounded by thunderstorms)

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

New recon now sub 950 at 948mb. 

Flight winds of 145mph. Probably 125mph at surface still shy of cat 4 but well well on its way. 

The representation of Matthew is still mightily impressive. 

Re ecm it's a long long way off. It will be a monster but where will get trampled 

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Rain contaminated but surface speeds of 120kt on recon. This would be cat 4 if believed by nhc. 

Lots of slightly confusing recon tbh. 

But we are looking at one of the strongest storms in this area for years. 

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Posted
  • Location: s yorks
  • Weather Preferences: c'mon thunder
  • Location: s yorks

latest leg in the north quad found 130mph peak surface winds @ 13.700N 71.400W 19:45

21:21 edit: last dropsonde (17th 19:55) indicated surface level winds of 139mph,

and when was strengthening forecast to abate/hold?

are the last frames (19:45 utc) finally showing no southern element to westward trajectory?

Edited by mezzacyclone
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