Hurricane Matthew

[knocker]

 

Edited September 30, 2016 by Paul
Now a hurricane - so changed title.

[Snow Queen one]

Hello I am off to Florida on Friday has anybody got any idea where this one may go?  In Orlando till 7th Oct then down to ft myers till 13th lol so would appreciate educated guesses plz.

[matty40s]

Too difficult to pin exact track this far out, but if it's going to hit the Keys, it will do so late on the 4th or 5th. It will depend on how it interacts with Jamaica and Cuba along with shear as to what strength it might be.

[summer blizzard]

5 hours ago, Snow Queen one said:

Hello I am off to Florida on Friday has anybody got any idea where this one may go?  In Orlando till 7th Oct then down to ft myers till 13th lol so would appreciate educated guesses plz.

 

5 hours ago, matty40s said:

Too difficult to pin exact track this far out, but if it's going to hit the Keys, it will do so late on the 4th or 5th. It will depend on how it interacts with Jamaica and Cuba along with shear as to what strength it might be.

While a direct hit is relatively unlikely if it gets anywhere near the Bahamas it's likely that the atmosphere will be very unstable over Florida meaning that your probably going to spend a few days being rained on. 

[Snow Queen one]

Lol ty summer blizzard that I can cope with.  Have car will travel so will go shopping.

[Gael_Force]

A tweet from Ryan Maue shows the difficulty in saying what Florida conditions will be like a week from now.

 

[summer blizzard]

GFS and Euro operationals show the system passing east of Jamaca and out to see although there are big differences in speed. 

Euro ensembles are west of Jamaca and into the gulf. 

GFS ensembles are with the operational. 

75% chance it pounds Cuba (NHC has it hit at 105mph) and then goes out to sea.

25% chance it goes for Florida/the Gulf.

[knocker]

06Z

[Jo Farrow]

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=7678;sess=

 

[Jo Farrow]

28 minutes ago, knocker said:

06Z

 

The UKMO is one of the furthest east

 

[mezzacyclone]

I think this ones keeping everyone guessing? so much in matthews favor yet looking slightly sheared with the core not cold (-14 core, -30 mean at 9:15am, 1001.6mb)  but convection rate could explain that?

core is currently exposed on W edge of conv:

H. REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR POSITION BASED ON 0523Z AMSR2 THAT SHOWS LLCC ON W EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION. LLCC LOCATED LESS THAN 0.5 DEGREE FROM DG FOR DT=3.0 USING SHEAR PATTERN. MET=3.5. PT=3.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

 

 

 

[Iceberg]

Very sheared but it's working itself up. 

Recon currently in and found flight winds at 80kt now. 

Pressure should be coming in pretty soon. 

Very impressive considering the land effectived inflow shear and poor stacking. 

[Iceberg]

Pressure just down to 995mb. With a clear core. But the speed of the Llcc is making the effect of the sw shear worse and exposing maybe 70%. 

Currently a boarder line hurricane. NHc could go either way in next update 

[Iceberg]

Official interim update from nhc  goes for 995mb and 60kt winds just shy of hurricane. Winds in the se quad are barely ts strength. Recon due to fly the potentially Stronger ne quad in the next 30-40 mins. 

With a large pressure field and large ts spread it's no surprise the main models are forecasting a land hitting big boy with cat 4 or height winds at its peak. 

[mezzacyclone]

Recon currently over/near centre, (14.05N 66.10W) 380mile SE of santo domingo DR,

995.7mb, retaining inner TS surface winds but fractionally under 70kn so far.

ECM 150hpa looked impressive yesterday but evident shear with little outflow from East to SouthWest?

 

Edited September 29, 2016 by mezzacyclone

[Iceberg]

Matthew is now officially hurricane Matthew !! As per nhc interim update. 

In visual sat the Cdo is making its best attempt today to cleanly cover the llcc. It has in the latest frames cover what would be the outer wall. With that in mind we might well see some noticeable pressure falls this evening. 

Curent pressure 993mb and winds 65 kts 

[Jack Wales]

Mathew looking more impressive despite the shear.  Cdo is strong and eyewall clearly starting to form...

 

[mezzacyclone]

MSN 5 (NOAA "gonzo") on its way so lets see what drops in sfc pressure it brings?

Shears decreasing as the ull fills yet matthews slowly strengthened?

definitely looking bigger by nearly filling the whole E carribean sea as well as developing the characteristic "comma".

ominous with slight tracks shifting west, N Carolinas seriously concerned but sst`s support growth right up to the outer banks so Maryland Virginia & New Jersey also at heightened risk?

Serious stuff indeed yet addictive to follow

 

[Iceberg]

12z ecm showing a pretty picture. 

Still considerable uncertainty but the Bahamas and various bits of the east coast from Florida northwards gets hammered. 100-120kt storm. 300 miles of hurricane winds and approx 600 miles of tropical storm winds. 

But tbh we don't even know how it's going to impact Cuba Jamaica or Haiti yet !

[Iceberg]

Latest radar shows an eye open to the ne but wrapping around quickly under -80 cloud tops. 

60% chance of ri tonight imho recon pressure will be very interesting

[mezzacyclone]

2 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Latest radar shows an eye open to the ne but wrapping around quickly under -80 cloud tops. 

60% chance of ri tonight imho recon pressure will be very interesting

Yeah, intense cold tops now (dont see green tops yet alone whites on the funktop IR`s that often?), whats to stop RI?

(sidenote: current NOAA G-IV mission is a synoptic surveillance mission targetting the upper level trough & mid level ridge north of centre with dropsondes followed by a circular sweep of the core prior to landing in st croix)

[Iceberg]

Yep 10k ft flight recon should be around 1am our time. 

[Jo Farrow]

Now a hurricane http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl#contents 

 

[Iceberg]

25k ft jet recon has dropped to 15k on approach to Matthew. 

In the next 10-20 mins we should be at flight level and receiving data

[knocker]

1800