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stewfox

Arctic Sea Ice Discussion 2016-2017: The Refreeze.

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So if we were seeing those kinds of anom here what would our current temps be? 33c??? at night???

yk14-1418-a-apt.JPG

Looking at that cloud swirl over Fram I'd suggest that that the older ice ,along the North Greenland coast and over Fram, will not be being pushed poleward but is flowing out of the Basin, and into the Atlantic, as I type. 

Through the clouds you can see the Mozaic of the ice below already looking like a post Crackopalypse pack so I would expect another very shattered , mobile , pack come sun up over the basin?

As for " being ahead of myself"? I have posted, since at least 2012, of my concerns over the return of 'the perfect melt storm synoptic in 2017 ( the earliest the cycle allows for but the same spacing as the two events prior to 07'). As such I had been holding out for a recovery in the ice thickness and thr proportion of older , less salty, ice before we faced 2017.

Well here we are in the winter before the earliest possible return of the 'perfect melt storm' and currently ice volume is at the lowest for the date along with both area and extent. Do you think this fills me with confidence that we can roll into another 'Perfect Melt Storm' and escape with our ice intact should we indeed see 2017 set up an 07' like synoptic for all of the melt season???

As it is ( and due mainly to what we saw last winter/early spring) I think the basin is now so altered that I do not know whether it will ever face another 'perfect melt storm synoptic' over summer any more?

Since 2012 June/July/August have become increasingly cloud ridden and low pressure prone which is a response to melt some folk had been predicting for an ice free basin. It does show just how things have altered over 5 years when the three coolest/cloudiest months of the melt season span max solar yet we still end up joint second lowest ( in extent)? That means we tied with 07' which took a 'perfect melt storm synoptic to allow ice to fall so low back then!

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4 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

So if we were seeing those kinds of anom here what would our current temps be? 33c??? at night???

 

I have posted this chart many times and make no excuses again.

What is going on up there , judgement day is comingmeanT_2016.png

Edited by stewfox
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Over on the Sea Ice Forum Wipneus has been treating us to some images of his mastery of graphs ( since C.T. is still letting us down!)

index.php?action=dlattach;topic=1457.0;a

 

That's TEN standard deviations from the mean 1980 to 2010 Data..........

Four s.d.'s contain 99.994% of the data.....

Black Swan?

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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On 11/15/2016 at 17:01, Gray-Wolf said:

So if we were seeing those kinds of anom here what would our current temps be? 33c??? at night???

I remember doing that sort of analysis back in January 2016 when Vize Island (Ostrov Vize) reported a 17C anomaly (-10C as opposed to the 1961-1990 long-term mean of -27C).  In Central England this would mean a January CET of 20.8C, easily beating the Julys of 1983 and 2006.  The main reason for insane winter anomalies like those is a lack of sea ice, meaning that cold air masses are modified somewhat by the surrounding seas.  However, it has also become apparent (from the 850hPa temperatures) that the anomalous warmth is penetrating a long way up into the atmosphere as well.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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We hear so much about CO2 but the anomalous heat there is borne on the H2O that is driven up there ,and into the basin?

By this time of year the Arctic used to practically be a desert, once the ice sealed of the Ocean below, but now we see events, all winter long, unsettling temps from their recent historic 'norms'? This means the ice below is no longer exposed to the brutal cold ( so lowering its core temp?) and goes into summer 'warmer' than it used to. That means it takes less energy to melt out completely ( compared to when its core was down at -25c or lower).

I had been looking at summer being the destroyer of ice but now I see winter as just as important to the ice with both WAA events and 'Crackopalypse' events taking their toll on the ice's durability. 

We will see a summer like 07' again some time in the future, probability demands it? Would a pack like last years stand up to that kind of onslaught?

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59 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

We hear so much about CO2 but the anomalous heat there is borne on the H2O that is driven up there ,and into the basin?

By this time of year the Arctic used to practically be a desert, once the ice sealed of the Ocean below, but now we see events, all winter long, unsettling temps from their recent historic 'norms'? This means the ice below is no longer exposed to the brutal cold ( so lowering its core temp?) and goes into summer 'warmer' than it used to. That means it takes less energy to melt out completely ( compared to when its core was down at -25c or lower).

I had been looking at summer being the destroyer of ice but now I see winter as just as important to the ice with both WAA events and 'Crackopalypse' events taking their toll on the ice's durability. 

We will see a summer like 07' again some time in the future, probability demands it? Would a pack like last years stand up to that kind of onslaught?

Hi,

If you want to look for a destroyer of ice, watch for spring. I think this is the season people should be most worried about in regards to sea ice loss (if they are worried at all).

 

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55 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

The latest few graphs from Wipneus are really something
 

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1457.msg94284.html#msg94284

Aren't they just. Whichever way you hack this it has to be impacting on the NH circulation at the moment and with that the ocean/atmosphere interaction causing the models to struggle somewhat. How and why is way above my pay grade but I will be very interested in the expert analysis when it's forthcoming.

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19 hours ago, knocker said:

Aren't they just. Whichever way you hack this it has to be impacting on the NH circulation at the moment and with that the ocean/atmosphere interaction causing the models to struggle somewhat. How and why is way above my pay grade but I will be very interested in the expert analysis when it's forthcoming.

I suppose we are in R.I.R.O. territory Knock's? If some of the current Data is outside the model parameters ( Global Sea ice 8 s.d.'s away from the norm and Arctic temps well above the norm?)then the model will take its best shot of making sense out of it? The forecast 65N SSW appears to be fading in recent runs ( as we approach the 'event') so was this just the models 'trying to make sense' out of current data ( remember the Feb QBO flip was never even hinted at in the model runs?)?

If /When we run into a climate flip will we know what is happening in real time or will we just see weird extremes/events outside of our experience?

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20 hours ago, knocker said:

Aren't they just. Whichever way you hack this it has to be impacting on the NH circulation at the moment and with that the ocean/atmosphere interaction causing the models to struggle somewhat. How and why is way above my pay grade but I will be very interested in the expert analysis when it's forthcoming.

Me too.

I went through every year on the ESRL yesterday for a look at how ridiculously anomalous this situation is (posted in model thread) - nothing remotely similar.

None of the standard long range models saw this but I noticed someone posted about the NOAA SST anomaly model correctly predicting the current pattern. Does this perhaps reflect the answer lies in the ocean heat content and the effects on circulation.

cat2m_anom.1.gif

I should also add that the new, ice anomaly incorporated, CESM model did well with October but the jump in ice at the end of the season, then rapidly reducing, seems to have put it awry for November.

Edited by Nouska
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I find it no coincidence that the current run of 'record global temps' ( to include 2016?) began when the IPO flipped positive in 2014 ( along with the PDO).

The IPO negative was often held up as one of the main reasons we saw a slowing in global temp rises through the noughties ( along with the impacts of 'global dimming from the rapid industrialisation of China?) as the phase buries the heat in the upper 200m of ocean pushing cooler water to the surface to be warmed in turn? The positive phase just leaves the warmed Ocean surface to warm the airs above ( and then transport them to the N/S?). With China trying to sort out its urban pollution we may also be seeing 'dimming' reduce, and continue to reduce, over the coming decades?

All this might be moot with current average ice thickness , according to JAXA, at just 66cm???jaxa-amsr2-volume.png

How can such thin ice hope to return to a more normal thickness if we do not see Arctic temps take a dive for the rest of winter? Last year we saw melting at the pole in late December so we'd better hope for a colder year this time around?

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On 11/17/2016 at 13:55, jvenge said:

Hi,

If you want to look for a destroyer of ice, watch for spring. I think this is the season people should be most worried about in regards to sea ice loss (if they are worried at all).

 

This strongly appeared to be the case with the low (by 1990s standards) sea ice minima in 1990 and 1995.  1990 had an unusually warm spell in mid-April in the Arctic, with a strong low pressure belt from Iceland to Scandinavia, and high pressure on the other side of the north Pole,  In 1995, much of the first half of April had a setup like this, resulting in record warmth near the North Pole, although it cooled down sufficiently around midmonth to allow a potent northerly to hit Britain on the 18th-21st.  In both cases the southerly winds also had the effect of weakening the sea ice cover near the northern Eurasian coast and compacting the ice near the North Pole.

But it doesn't always work- indeed, 2016 had a record melt rate during mid to late spring, followed by an unusually sluggish rate of sea ice melt in June, saving us from having another record low minimum.  Also in the abrupt recovery in 1996 (following the record low September minimum in 1995) sea ice extent was generally below that of 1995 until May, with early melt episodes in early spring, but unusually slow ice melt during late May and June 1996 resulted in the second highest September minimum in the NSIDC record.

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6 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I find it no coincidence that the current run of 'record global temps' ( to include 2016?) began when the IPO flipped positive in 2014 ( along with the PDO).

The IPO negative was often held up as one of the main reasons we saw a slowing in global temp rises through the noughties ( along with the impacts of 'global dimming from the rapid industrialisation of China?) as the phase buries the heat in the upper 200m of ocean pushing cooler water to the surface to be warmed in turn? The positive phase just leaves the warmed Ocean surface to warm the airs above ( and then transport them to the N/S?). With China trying to sort out its urban pollution we may also be seeing 'dimming' reduce, and continue to reduce, over the coming decades?

All this might be moot with current average ice thickness , according to JAXA, at just 66cm???jaxa-amsr2-volume.png

How can such thin ice hope to return to a more normal thickness if we do not see Arctic temps take a dive for the rest of winter? Last year we saw melting at the pole in late December so we'd better hope for a colder year this time around?

Just watch and see. By January ice will be where it usually is. The thing to watch is Spring. Summer anomalies are very small.

For sea ice to disapear in summer, melt needs to happen in spring. Arctic summer temps are not increasing enough to do the job.

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On 18/11/2016 at 15:55, knocker said:

Good find

Interesting lots of -40c in Eastern Siberia (10 to 15 below average) but -12c further north and west in Siberia (10 to 15 above).

https://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/russia/verkhoyansk

 

 

 

 

Edited by stewfox
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I can't believe this isn't making the news headlines: it's incredible. Why isn't anyone talking about this?

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4 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

I can't believe this isn't making the news headlines: it's incredible. Why isn't anyone talking about this?

I wish some more knowledgeable members would give their input as the oceans 'boil' 

 

steam cooker.png

212.jpg

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The really cold air at the moment is under a tonking 1065mb anticyclone

gfs_t850a_eurasia_1.png

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29 minutes ago, knocker said:

The really cold air at the moment is under a tonking 1065mb anticyclone

gfs_t850a_eurasia_1.png

Yep currently -43.9c in  Berdigestyah Russia   , I guess they don't need to look at T 240 charts.  :)

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I think one reason why people might not be taking much notice is that what we are seeing is down to a natural cause also. E.g if your going to have a negative AO and you get a set up where southerly winds pushes up towards the pole, then its going to be 'warm' in the Arctic and a negative AO will cause the mid latitudes to be colder which it has so its hardly a 'new' set up we are seeing here.

What is however unusual is the sheer persistance of it and the time of year also where traditionally we see the PV in the Arctic forming and because we have seen winds blowing from the south in both the pacific and Atlantic side of the Arctic, sea ice has really struggled to grow hence the really low ice extent at the moment. It got to be said, it looks like this is set to change with cold air flooding into the Barents/Kara and Chuckchi seas and the Arctic in general turning a lot colder than it has been for most of this Autumn. How long this lasts for is another matter of course.

I agree about the poster regarding Spring being important, last Spring was really warm in the Arctic(think March was average to slightly below and April/May being really warm) with positive uppers air temps entering the Arctic ocean quite frequently with the PV being quite weak so its going to be interesting what will happen this Spring in this respect.

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3 hours ago, Yarmy said:

I can't believe this isn't making the news headlines: it's incredible. Why isn't anyone talking about this?

In terms of public interest? Global warming is nothing new anymore, and because people's worlds haven't necessarily noticeably fallen apart due to it since it was more prominent in news headlines ten or twenty years ago, its threat is, fatally, mistaken to be diminished. 

 

It really is the exact same story as 2007 or 2012, which isn't particularly exciting to hear the third time around, but each time the new territory we're approaching is further and further removed from the equilibrium that the Earth's ecosystems are used to. 

Edited by Harve
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13 hours ago, jvenge said:

Just watch and see. By January ice will be where it usually is. The thing to watch is Spring. Summer anomalies are very small.

For sea ice to disapear in summer, melt needs to happen in spring. Arctic summer temps are not increasing enough to do the job.

While we will probably be back to within 2 standard deviations at some point after the new year (at least extent-wise) I'd caution against saying those things with such certainty. Remember last month?

 

On 10/25/2016 at 15:26, jvenge said:

After mid November it would be really difficult for it to stay low, even with unfavorable weather patterns. There is just only so much the weather can influence up there at that time of year. 

 

 

On 10/26/2016 at 16:53, jvenge said:

From November 10th, it really won't matter so much what the weather is doing in the arctic. That sea ice total will just keep on rising and at or extremely close to the pace in other low years.

 

 

ADS (IJIS) extent continues to fall, down 18k making it 3 days in a row. 


With the NSIDC extent, unless we see an increase in the daily extent of at least 142k today, the 5 day average will drop for the 3rd consecutive day. 2 days of drops is already a record for November so 3 days and possibly more will only emphasise just how bizarre the current sea ice conditions are.

It also looks like the 7 day extent change could switch from record largest gain to record lowest gain in just 5 days. I suspect we could see a return to record breaking increases again soon, just as there is so much open water in the high Arctic now, it could freeze over very easily in just average conditions.

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15 hours ago, knocker said:

The really cold air at the moment is under a tonking 1065mb anticyclone

gfs_t850a_eurasia_1.png

Chinese TV is saying Beijing's coldest week in 30 years is about to start - all a bit strange but must be related?

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