Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
stewfox

Arctic Sea Ice Discussion 2016-2017: The Refreeze.

Recommended Posts

17 minutes ago, stewfox said:

At last some reasonable increases via IJIS

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

5294114

5367956

5437344

5539577

True, but even the most recent increase of 102k was still more than 30k below the 2002-2015 average. We haven't had an above average daily increase since Sept 27th.

I suspect this will change big time next week though as more average temperatures take hold over the Pacific side of the central Arctic.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

True, but even the most recent increase of 102k was still more than 30k below the 2002-2015 average. We haven't had an above average daily increase since Sept 27th.

I suspect this will change big time next week though as more average temperatures take hold over the Pacific side of the central Arctic.

I profess to being a bit puzzled by that Born

gefs_t2ma_5d_nh_53.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, knocker said:

Now you have lost me. It is showing temps 13C above average on the Pacific side.

I removed the post as i had mis read it. Perhaps BFTV will give us a update

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, stewfox said:

I removed the post as i had mis read it. Perhaps BFTV will give us a update

Okaydoke. Have removed my reply.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, knocker said:

I profess to being a bit puzzled by that Born

gefs_t2ma_5d_nh_53.png

 

I think the surface temps will still be elevated due to the open water heat release and freezing. At the 850hPa level things are going to change quite a bit though, which show the change to a much cooler air mass.

T0

oVFyjGN.png

 

T72

hAGuuqq.png

 

T120

VWaOPuh.png

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

 

I think the surface temps will still be elevated due to the open water heat release and freezing. At the 850hPa level things are going to change quite a bit though, which show the change to a much cooler air mass.

 

I think surface temps will have more of a impact on ice growth then 850hPa temps

We will see, even +ve abnormalities are still going to below freezing. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

 

I think the surface temps will still be elevated due to the open water heat release and freezing. At the 850hPa level things are going to change quite a bit though, which show the change to a much cooler air mass.

T0

oVFyjGN.png

 

T72

hAGuuqq.png

 

T120

VWaOPuh.png

 

I'm with you now but the EPS is still showing a couple of degrees above average in the 10-15 day period. The eastern side of the Arctic seems to be forecast to cool down quite considerable.

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, stewfox said:

I think surface temps will have more of a impact on ice growth then 850hPa temps

We will see, even +ve abnormalities are still going to below freezing. 

My understanding is that surface temps are elevated because of the open ocean. As it drops in heat and freezes, heat is released, raising the surface air temperature. We see the opposite in summer when temps over 80N are depressed from melting the ice.
Even if we had a record breaking cold air mass move over the open water near the Bering strait, it would still show close to or above average temps near the surface.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

My understanding is that surface temps are elevated because of the open ocean. As it drops in heat and freezes, heat is released, raising the surface air temperature. We see the opposite in summer when temps over 80N are depressed from melting the ice.
Even if we had a record breaking cold air mass move over the open water near the Bering strait, it would still show close to or above average temps near the surface.

So in theory then we could be looking at superadiabatic lapse rates?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, knocker said:

So in theory then we could be looking at superadiabatic lapse rates?

Already forecasting something like -2C at the surface, -16C at 850hPa, which would be close to it. With all the instability, the models showing a lot of precip over the area too, which could easily freeze on the water surface and appear as ice on the concentration images too.

Edited by BornFromTheVoid
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Already forecasting something like -2C at the surface, -16C at 850hPa, which would be close to it. With all the instability, the models showing a lot of precip over the area too, which could easily freeze on the water surface and appear as ice on the concentration images too.

Very interesting that. And I would think certainly very possible superadiabatic in the lower boundary layer and, as you say, very unstable,

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Another gain over 100k for ADS extent today, but still below average. Over the next week, 2012 gained 1.42 million km2 and 2007 gained 1.26 million. As we're only 270k and 206k above 2012 and 2007 respectively, extent gains will need to grow massively to prevent us being lowest on record by next weekend.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Another gain over 100k for ADS extent today, but still below average. Over the next week, 2012 gained 1.42 million km2 and 2007 gained 1.26 million. As we're only 270k and 206k above 2012 and 2007 respectively, extent gains will need to grow massively to prevent us being lowest on record by next weekend.

Do you think there is any correlation between a 'warmer' Arctic ocean and increase snow cover across Eurasia.

I read some where most of the falling snow across the Arctic sea does not usually go more then 30 miles inland into Siberia. I have no idea if that has any merit as a fact.

I would assume +ve temp abnormalities with more moisture in the air would increase snow cover across large parts of Northern USA/Siberia etc

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ice forecast from NOAA, but it is done with the CFSv2, so, bag of salt. 

iceforecastnoaa.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The latest date on the ADS record for extent to reach 6 million km2 is Oct 20th, back in 2007. We're currently at 5.713 million, having only gained 53k yesterday. I suspect that the growth will pick up enough to prevent a new record, but something interesting to watch nonetheless.

@stewfox I think the added moisture from the additional open ocean plays a big role at this time of year. But the very weak vortex is also allowing plenty of early cold to spill south over the continents which is certainly helping too. I can look into it a bit more later and get back to ya.

Edited by BornFromTheVoid
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I take it a portion of the energy from ex-Hurricane Nicole is bound for the Arctic over the coming week? We've already seen a couple of close shaves with Bering as some of the bigger Pacific storms moved North? As we are entering lower solar should we expect more storms to head North as Atlantic blocking ramps up?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Both NSIDC and ADS extent now 2nd lowest on record.

Daily NSIDC extent values will be lowest on record on tomorrows update unless extent increases by over 184k, and ADS will be lowest without an increase of at least 140k.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The 19th saw the first above average increase in extent on ADS since September 27th. Despite extent growing by over 300k in the last 2 days, 2016 is now lowest on record for the time of year, 96k below the next lowest 2007.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Don't usually post on topics such as this and I certainly don't understand the technical points surrounding sea ice and where it should be at this time of year but I had the pleasure of mostly clear skies on a recent daytime flight from the UK. to Los Angeles and crossing the Greenland Icecap and the the edge of the sea ice across northern Canada was an experience that won't be easily forgotten.

Add to that the huge snow cornices  capping the highest peaks of the Rockies and I must admit that two of my highlights from a holiday of a lifetime came came before we actually landed.

Given the cost though I better not tell my missus that  :)

 

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lowest on record and I can only see that gap getting bigger with the current weather patterns coming up, its just like the start of the month, vortex totally split, mild air coming in from both ends of the Arctic and the potential of a very deep low or two hitting the Pacific side of the Arctic, certainly won't be surprised too see extent stalling soon once again.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I doubt it will stall, but the current slump can continue, After mid November it would be really difficult for it to stay low, even with unfavorable weather patterns. There is just only so much the weather can influence up there at that time of year. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I guess they used to say that about Barrentsz back in the 1930's when it blocked access to the basin with its mountainous paleocryistic ice ( as reported from the Norwegian expeditions there over the late 30's). We should be mindful that the Atlantic bottom waters, just below the surface layer, holds enough heat to keep the Arctic ice free year round ( as we saw in the PETM?). The more we see open water the more we see Low pressure systems mix out more and more of the thermocline ( ?)  meaning that , over time, that heat and salinity will make its presence known at the surface ( maybe the edge, across Fram, will edge ever poleward leaving Svalbard ice free year round?).

We know , from the PETM flaura/fauna that Arctic night temps did not dip below 10c on Ellesmere Island even with 24hr darkness??? It must have been a foggy old basin back then!!!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×