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stewfox

Arctic Sea Ice Discussion 2016-2017: The Refreeze.

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Is there any hope left ?

2012 had good extend , winters end and we saw where that ended up.

The summer hasn't generally been warm up there and we end up second lowest.

If we had some major recovery in ice volume to give us some hope next summer but multi year has left the party.

What could stop a sub 4 million (extent) next summer end ? 

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

 

 

 

 

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Tbh,the above post should be in the melt thread.

This is the re-freeze thread.That's not a re-freeze.

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10 minutes ago, joggs said:

Tbh,the above post should be in the melt thread.

This is the re-freeze thread.That's not a re-freeze.

Play it backwards  actually it also demonstrates how much the artic needs to refreeze to catch up with the extent we had last winter.  which to me shows how  in my opinion we will have less extent next summers end

Edited by weirpig
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On 21/09/2016 at 14:03, weirpig said:

Play it backwards  actually it also demonstrates how much the artic needs to refreeze to catch up with the extent we had last winter.  which to me shows how  in my opinion we will have less extent next summers end

Mult year ice and volume is the key, extent wont cut the mustard .

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On the ADS extent, we're now up to 6th lowest, and 1.23 million km2 above 2012.

The increase from August 31st up to September 23rd of 465k is the largest on record (since 2002) by 199k. It is already the 4th largest increase for the month as a whole and requires just another 197k to be the largest monthly increase.

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On 24/09/2016 at 10:00, BornFromTheVoid said:

On the ADS extent, we're now up to 6th lowest, and 1.23 million km2 above 2012.

The increase from August 31st up to September 23rd of 465k is the largest on record (since 2002) by 199k. It is already the 4th largest increase for the month as a whole and requires just another 197k to be the largest monthly increase.

Arctic recovery ? :nea:

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2 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Why?

Have you cut some mustard?:nonono:

Was a joke :sorry:

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Wow.. I mean just wow, tell you what, summer could well be returning to the Arctic by around next weekend, just look at those upper air temps that could potentially hit the pacific side of the Arctic next week. Models have been predicting an ridge to develop from the Pacific side of the Arctic for a little while now and the models are really ramping the severity of any warmth also.

I'm certain if this happens, the positive anamolies will go right off the scale and not just that, re-freeze in the Pacific will come to a halt and dare I say, maybe some melting also? And lets be honest, the Atlantic side is hardly much colder either with persistent Southerlies and ridging around Kara and coupled with the huge warmth at the start of September then what we are seeing in the Arctic is quite exceptional following on what was quite an eventful August.

Of course, we could(and hope) see a much watered down version by this time next week but no doubt some warmth via a ridge will occur.

Also to note on the rapid re-freeze, this is mainly imo down to favourable wind direction and cold air hitting in an area where ice has only just recently melted, similar occured in 2012 also but if those conditions do indeed occur, I can only see a major slow down in refreeze.

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According to ADS, with 4 days of growth to go, we've already secured the largest minimum to end of September extent growth on record.

49qNxA1.png

We've also secured the largest increase in extent from Aug 31 to the end of September

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On 27/09/2016 at 06:39, BornFromTheVoid said:

According to ADS, with 4 days of growth to go, we've already secured the largest minimum to end of September extent growth on record.

49qNxA1.png

We've also secured the largest increase in extent from Aug 31 to the end of September

Which could well become largely irrelevant in the coming days as the PV gets hit for 6 and the Arctic will be well above average for at least 5 days or so. I have looked back at the archieves and I have not seen any year which mathes the warmth the Arctic is going to about to experience for the time of year. I really would not be surprised if extents drops slightly because there is going to be quite a bit of compaction on both sides of the Arctic!

Talking about warmth, the Barants/Kara sea has barely seen a cool down so far this Autumn, I do feel one year we will see both seas fail to freeze up, I wonder if this year will be that year, no cold whatsoever in these regions for the foreseeable future and if Barants/Kara do both fail to freeze then you do think the chances of an ice freeze pole via a retreat on the Atlantic side looks quite likely in the next melting season. Still early days yet mind.

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I'm surprised at how rapid the growth has been, given that temperatures over the Arctic have generally been about 5C above the long-term normal over the past fortnight, but presumably just cold enough and assisted by favourable wind directions.  It does indeed look like there will be an exceptional warm plume close to the North Pole over the coming week, with 850hPa temperatures close to 0C, so I agree that we will probably see the sea ice extent level off or even decline a little.

The situation in the Barents/Kara Seas reminds me a lot of 2012, when much of the area didn't freeze during the winter of 2011/12 (when there were positive temperature anomalies of about 15C around Franz Josef Land) and the freeze-over of 2012/13 was somewhat slow, although when it did eventually freeze in December, temperatures for the rest of the 2012/13 season were far closer to normal there.

This summer saw melting extend as far north as 87N so an ice-free North Pole can't be ruled out in the near future, but as the winter 2012/13 showed, it's still early days.

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And the forecast for the next ten days is a continuation of the very positive temp anomalies.

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.pnggefs_t2ma_5d_nh_41.png

 

Edited by knocker

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As other folk have said we are seeing some remarkable temperatures in the high Arctic and IJIS after a early sprint has levelled off.

 

meanT_2016 (1).png

VISHOP_Extent.png

Edited by stewfox

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On 04/10/2016 at 09:42, stewfox said:

As other folk have said we are seeing some remarkable temperatures in the high Arctic and IJIS after a early sprint has levelled off.

 

meanT_2016 (1).png

VISHOP_Extent.png

 

On 04/10/2016 at 09:42, stewfox said:

As other folk have said we are seeing some remarkable temperatures in the high Arctic and IJIS after a early sprint has levelled off.

 

meanT_2016 (1).png

VISHOP_Extent.png

Those temperature anomolies are probably only going to look even more impressive/alarming in the coming week because just when you thought the pattern could be breaking down, the models are still continuing to predict lots and lots of warm air hitting into the Pacific side of the Arctic, there is hints the Atlantic side of the basin may start to cool down now but I have never seen a PV being hit for 6 before like we have seen here in October.

Very real possibility of not only the slowest October growth but we could end up being the lowest on record because there is just so much heat up there, its going to take a lot of cold air for parts of the Pacific side of the Arctic to refreeze again.

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Is it the lack of surface cold in the high Arctic which is delaying the Polar Vortex intensifying then?

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1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

Is it the lack of surface cold in the high Arctic which is delaying the Polar Vortex intensifying then?

Its more the lack of ANY cold that's the problem. The globe and especially the Arctic is just so warm right now:

GFSOPNH06_24_2.png

Take this for example, its 9th October and there's barely any -10C 850hPa air in the Arctic circle. Its highly unusual and not a great sign.

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7 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Is it the lack of surface cold in the high Arctic which is delaying the Polar Vortex intensifying then?

The PV is slow in forming significantly because of the -NAO which is bringing warm ridges into the Pacific side of the Arctic therefore Arctic air is being spread out to lower latitudes which will potentially help in boosting snow cover because from what I seen, it was a very slow start in snowcover during September however it means the Arctic is very warm and ice cover is slow in forming as a result.

Its amazing to think parts of September could well be colder than parts of October but this pattern of warmth in the Pacific side of the Arctic is not going anytime soon and whilst there is still subtle hints the Atlantic side of the Arctic will cool, I just do not see much in the way of extent gains occuring anytime soon.

 

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It will be interesting if we do see a sustained weakening of the Polar Vortex in future.

Of course it doesn't guarantee UK cold weather or more favourable blocking but  if we see increases in cold plunges even if they drop into the mid Atlantic, we might get one once.

 

 

 

November2013_polar_vortex_geopotentialheight_mean_Large.jpg

Jan52014_polar_vortex_geopotentialheight_mean_Large.jpg

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It may not be that much use to British cold/snow lovers if the lack of a polar vortex is caused more by lack of cold air than by blocking highs though.  For example, that amazing northerly at the end of February this year:

CFSR_1_2016022412_1.png

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Not altogether surprising Born considering the staggering amount of WAA into the Arctic tha's going on? And looks set to continue

gefs_t2ma_5d_nh_37.png

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