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Roger J Smith

October 2016 C.E.T. forecasts

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11.2 to the 15th

0.2 below the 61 to 90 average

0.6 below the 81 to 10 average

 

11.9 remains the high point this month

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The minimum today is 8.1C while maxima look like reaching the mid 15s, so we should remain on 11.2C on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

11.3C to the 17th (12.6: +2.6)
11.2C to the 18th (10.1: +0.0)
11.2C to the 19th (10.2: +0.2)
11.1C to the 20th (10.4: +0.6)
11.0C to the 21st (8.9: -0.7)
11.0C to the 22nd (9.3: -0.6)
10.9C to the 23rd (10.7: +1.0)
10.9C to the 24th (10.5: +1.1)
11.0C to the 25th (12.5: +3.1)

Close to average for the next week, then the GFS trending more to above average conditions.

I've been trying out a few ways of of showing the forecast in a more graphical form today. Such as seeing what the the potential CET outcomes if 2016 was to follow the daily values of every other year on record:

Rn808s2.png

But that gets a bit messy.

Trying to clean it up a little bit gives something like this

q1QcrHI.png

But it's still not quite right. I'll play around with this over the next while to try make it more clear while still providing more info. If anyone has any suggestions go ahead

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At the half way stage, and given the output shown by the models today a very near average CET likely to be the end result, but there are signs things could dip colder resulting in a a below average month. I'd say 60% odds of a below average month, but only slightly so, slim chance 15% 1 degree below average, these odds could increase though over the coming days. 

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12z GFS suggests to me that the CET will drop slowly to about 10.8 in about a week and then recover somewhat back into low or even mid 11 range as rather mild southeast flow develops. Best bet for a finishing value around 11.4 C. 

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1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

 Best bet for a finishing value around 11.4 C. 

Or 11.5C?!

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1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

12z GFS suggests to me that the CET will drop slowly to about 10.8 in about a week and then recover somewhat back into low or even mid 11 range as rather mild southeast flow develops. Best bet for a finishing value around 11.4 C. 

Much will depend on cloud cover, and the orientation of flow, fine margins are being shown between a predominantly cooler flow, and a slightly milder one - but nothing particularly mild.

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10.2c to the 17th here.

 0.4c above the 1981-2010 average.

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Sunny Sheffield up to 10.3C

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12z GFS suggests slight cooling trend to 25th then milder, probably won't make much net difference to current value so would say 10.8 to 11.6 looking best placed at this point. About 75% likely 10.4 to 12.0. 

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Very warm end looks possible towards last quarter.  Eye watering 'cold' charts well off the table now.  Even with this potential warmth it is too little too late for my CET guess

 

BFTP

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5 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Very warm end looks possible towards last quarter.  Eye watering 'cold' charts well off the table now.  Even with this potential warmth it is too little too late for my CET guess

 

BFTP

Surely not another warm Halloween?! 

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59 minutes ago, March Blizzard said:

Surely not another warm Halloween?! 

I hope not! Can't we just eliminate this front? 

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Let's say the CET was 11.0 after 20 days (probably about right, especially after corrections) ...

That would require the following averages for last 11 days to reach given outcomes ... 

10.0 _ requires 8.2 C

10.5 _ requires 9.7 C

11.0 _ requires 11.0 C

11.5 _ requires 12.4 C

12.0 _ requires 13.8 C

12.5 _ requires 15.2 C (approximately record warmth every day)

There are some quite warm looking days 26th to 30th at the moment, would still say the most likely finish is 11.5.

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22 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Let's say the CET was 11.0 after 20 days (probably about right, especially after corrections) ...

That would require the following averages for last 11 days to reach given outcomes ... 

10.0 _ requires 8.2 C

10.5 _ requires 9.7 C

11.0 _ requires 11.0 C

11.5 _ requires 12.4 C

12.0 _ requires 13.8 C

12.5 _ requires 15.2 C (approximately record warmth every day)

There are some quite warm looking days 26th to 30th at the moment, would still say the most likely finish is 11.5.

Thanks for your updates and thoughts Roger, most likely finish for me is 11.1, a pint of ale for the winner.:)

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15 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Thanks for your updates and thoughts Roger, most likely finish for me is 11.1, a pint of ale for the winner.:)

Starting to think I might just have fluked yet another month at 11.2 

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2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Starting to think I might just have fluked yet another month at 11.2 

And I am thinking that my guess  (12.6)  might be a load of rubbish! :rofl:

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Minimum today is 7.5C, while maxima were around the high 13s, so a drop to 11.2C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at:

11.1C to the 20th (9.7: -0.1)
11.0C to the 21st (9.0: -0.6)
11.0C to the 22nd (9.1: -0.8)
10.9C to the 23rd (9.1: -0.5)
10.8C to the 24th (9.3: -0.1)
10.8C to the 25th (9.5: +0.1)
10.7C to the 26th (9.1: -0.5)
10.7C to the 27th (10.3: +0.5)
10.7C to the 28th (11.1: +1.3)

Slightly below average temps causing the CET to slowly fall over the coming week. Beyond that, a slight warm up at the end of the month may take us back up close to 11C.

Using the provisional CET mean temps so far, here's the range of values based on the daily CET from all previous years, with the 30 year mean, forecast, and upper and lower 90% values marked out (warmest and coolest 10% of mean CET days).

bTbQzZ3.png

 

Below is the same but with the starting point for the other years being after the forecast values for the next 5 days.

x2o4sNx.png

 

Still refining the graphs, so they'll likely keep changing over the coming few weeks.

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No change sunny Sheffield 10.2C Mild nights off setting cool or average daytime at the moment. Funny old month with little variation of the temperatures over the month over all so far.

Edited by The PIT

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On the basis of latest GFS output, I am sticking to 11.5 as my end of month (after corrections) finish, 11.7 before corrections based on slight drop to 24th then a steady rise of about 0.1 per day, some days may average 13 or 13.5, not looking quite record warm anywhere unless a weak member of the herd gets picked off. 

Will be having an ale anyway win or lose. :)

 

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