October 2016 C.E.T. forecasts

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 10.7C +0.5C above normal.

[Lettucing Gutted]

On ‎07‎/‎10‎/‎2016 at 18:05, damianslaw said:

Hi - do you have the stats? 1740 ominous indeed...

Hi, I'm sorry for the delay with this.  September 1740 was slightly mild at 14.0C and October 1740 was very cold and the coldest on record at 5.3C.   A whopping drop of 8.7C! 

According to hadcet.  http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

Edited October 9, 2016 by Lettucing Gutted

[Man With Beard]

4 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

11.9 to the 8th

0.2 below the 61 to 90 average

0.1 below the 81 to 10 average

Hmmm higher than I'd expected a week ago - looks like I might get lucky, if I'd put my guess in on October 2nd rather than Sept 30th I would have gone for something like 9.8!! The easterly has proved less cold than I thought it might be.

[summer blizzard]

42 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Hmmm higher than I'd expected a week ago - looks like I might get lucky, if I'd put my guess in on October 2nd rather than Sept 30th I would have gone for something like 9.8!! The easterly has proved less cold than I thought it might be.

We only got the cooler uppers on Friday and although we had a slight inversion early in the week, there was too much moisture to allow minima to fall much in the second away from the far west. This week was looking to be the cooler week however we're getting a more cyclonic influence than expected which will keep minima up a bit.

Not a bad thing come December when uppers will be a few degrees lower than the coming week but for now it means drizzle or thick cloud. 

[iapennell]

I instinctively went for a milder than normal October this year based on the likelihood of mild southerly or SW winds with high-pressure over Europe earlier in the month and a more unsettled end to the month. The persistent block over Scandinavia is (perhaps) a little surprising because although I hinted in my first Autumn 2016 at a short colder spell with easterlies mid-month the blocking high over Scandinavia has proved to be far more enduring. However, the main baroclinic zone remains far to the north of Britain due to the warmth of the Norwegian and Greenland Seas and the northwards limit of the Arctic pack-ice and southerly winds aloft have carried unusually warm air northwards high above the NE Atlantic- no doubt helping to retain the block to the NE- but the upshot of this is the lack of cold air coming out of Scandinavia or across from eastern Europe. Furthermore, as the month progresses I do anticipate the high-pressure over Scandinavia collapsing southwards as the Circumpolar Vortex strengthens and expands southwards in response to seasonal cooling over Greenland and NE Canada. This will bring about a change to warmer south or south-west winds that will bring much more cloud to the north and west of Britain.

Consequently I remain confident in October 2016 being rather warmer than usual, though probably rather drier than in my earlier forecast (particularly for northern regions). Even so, with sea-surface temperatures off Britain's north and west coasts warmer than usual the south-westerlies later will carry more moisture (and warmth) than usual and it could still get very wet indeed in western Scotland and NW England late in the month.

[Summer Sun]

11.8 to the 9th

0.3 below the 61 to 90 average

0.2 below the 81 to 10 average

 

11.9 remains the high point so far this month

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 10.5C this Friday could be the low point of the month looking at the GFS

[Roger J Smith]

Looking at the 12z GFS, there would be a slight downward trend to Thursday 15th, leaving the CET around 11.0, then several milder days culminating in near-record warmth Monday-Tuesday; that should leave the CET closer to 12.0 by about the 20th. Beyond that, the pattern looks closer to average but perhaps still a bit milder than average; by the 26th on these charts I would expect the CET to be in the range of 11.0 to 11.8 C. From there to end of month, the reasonable spread would be 10.5 to 12.3, anything near-record in either direction near the end might spread that a bit wider.  The pattern shown on the 26th looks more likely to stay close to average than to move towards extremes, but a warmer turn looks a bit more likely than a colder turn there. 

[Summer Sun]

11.5 to the 10th

0.4 below the 61 to 90 average

0.5 below the 81 to 10 average

Edited October 12, 2016 by Summer Sun

[The PIT]

Finally below average at 10.3C  may squeak another few days of below average temps out. Feeling confident we will get an above average month though.

[Roger J Smith]

Today/s GFS 12z takes away some of the warmth next week but looks warmer than yesterday's run towards the last five days, so on balance I still think we would be near 11.0 to 11.5 by the 27th with further warmth likely if you extend the pattern shown at the end of the run. 

[Summer Sun]

11.3 to the 11th

0.5 below the 61 to 90 average

0.7 below the 81 to 10 average

Edited October 12, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Roger J Smith]

The 12z GFS has swung back towards a warmer signal next week, so the CET could be as high as 12.2 by mid-week, then it seems to be on a colder path to end of the run, would currently suggest a gradual slide down towards 10.5 by the 28th. This seems to be associated with greater blocking now foreseen near the end of Nicole's evolution over the western Atlantic. I think confidence in any trends beyond ten days at this point would have to be low, given the day to day inconsistency. In other words, (almost) everyone is still in the hunt. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of 8.2C, while maxima looked like being around the high 14s, so remaining on 11.3C on tomorrows update.

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at:

11.2C to the 13th (9.5: -1.9)
11.1C to the 14th (10.6: -0.3)
11.1C to the 15th (10.9: +0.1)
11.2C to the 16th (12.4: +2.1)
11.2C to the 17th (11.7: +1.7)
11.2C to the 18th (11.2: +1.1)
11.1C to the 19th (9.1: -0.9)
11.1C to the 20th (10.6: +0.8)
11.1C to the 21st (10.4: +0.8)

Temperatures generally quite close to average over the next 10 days overall. Nothing particularly noteworthy.

[Summer Sun]

11.3 to the 12th

0.4 below the 61 to 90 average

0.7 below the 81 to 10 average

[Man With Beard]

14 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Minimum today of 8.2C, while maxima looked like being around the high 14s, so remaining on 11.3C on tomorrows update.

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at:

11.2C to the 13th (9.5: -1.9)
11.1C to the 14th (10.6: -0.3)
11.1C to the 15th (10.9: +0.1)
11.2C to the 16th (12.4: +2.1)
11.2C to the 17th (11.7: +1.7)
11.2C to the 18th (11.2: +1.1)
11.1C to the 19th (9.1: -0.9)
11.1C to the 20th (10.6: +0.8)
11.1C to the 21st (10.4: +0.8)

Temperatures generally quite close to average over the next 10 days overall. Nothing particularly noteworthy.

So I guess anyone who put between 10.5C and 11C must be feeling quite confident at the moment.

[Midlands Ice Age]

19 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

The 12z GFS has swung back towards a warmer signal next week, so the CET could be as high as 12.2 by mid-week, then it seems to be on a colder path to end of the run, would currently suggest a gradual slide down towards 10.5 by the 28th. This seems to be associated with greater blocking now foreseen near the end of Nicole's evolution over the western Atlantic. I think confidence in any trends beyond ten days at this point would have to be low, given the day to day inconsistency. In other words, (almost) everyone is still in the hunt. 

Roger..

I have posted in the Results thread that my guess of 11.01C is missing from your list of eligible entries.

It was entered on Sept 30th at about 16:00 in this thread.

MIA

[The PIT]

No change in Sunny Sheffield still at 10.3C

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Models heading towardsca lot more warmth after this 'interruption'. ECM looking like it is sniffing too. 

 

BFTP

[DAVID SNOW]

13 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Models heading towardsca lot more warmth after this 'interruption'. ECM looking like it is sniffing too. 

 

BFTP

Are you sure Fred? I was thinking my 11.2 would end up too high?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

11 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Are you sure Fred? I was thinking my 11.2 would end up too high?

Not really Dave.....I've gone even higher! Lol.   Had some really cracking weather so it is intriguing how we aren't higher.  Some pretty cold nights have hit it

 

Fred

[NorthYorksWeather]

10.1c to the 13th here, 0.3c above the 81-10 average.

[Summer Sun]

No update so far today

[ARTDEMOLE]

still awaiting update even at this hour,

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 10.1C. Next few days should see a rise and then these should be cancelled out so I wouldn't be surprised if I said 10.1C next Friday as well.