October 2016 C.E.T. forecasts

[Dancerwithwings]

11.2c cheers 

[iapennell]

On 9/20/2016 at 15:48, Relativistic said:

A Thames freeze-over late on. A cold 7.9C.

Would love this to happen, but the facts of warmer sea-surface temperatures just west and north of Britain (the "Cold Blob" in the North Atlantic is rather further west), the up-tick in hurricane/typhoon activity in the tropical North Atlantic and Pacific (respectively) and the QBO remaining in a "Westerly" phase means strong blocking-highs over Iceland and the north of Scandinavia are very unlikely to occur for the foreseeable future. That is, debarring something totally unexpected, like Yellowstone blowing its top and putting trillions of tonnes of ash and sulphur into the stratosphere to reflect the Sun's heat! 

[Summer Sun]

11.8c for me please

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

10.1C, please - I suspect that's on the low side, but most of the higher ones are taken already.

[Christopher]

10.4c for me please. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Below is the October CET from 1659-2015 in blue, the 30 year average in red and the linear trend in black

The CET this month is likely to finish somewhere between 15.7 and 16.5C after corrections. The average October following Septembers within that range is 10.6C.

The linear trend for the whole October record is +0.38C per century. Following this trend gives an October CET of 10.4C.
The linear trend since 1850 is +1.17C per century. Following this trend gives an October CET of 11.0C.
The linear trend since 1950 is +1.66C per century. Following this trend gives an October CET of 11.2C.
The linear trend over the last 50 years is +1.69C per century. Following this trend gives an October CET of 11.2C.
The linear trend over the last 30 years is +4.46C per century. Following this trend gives an October CET of 11.6C.

Using trends since 1900, October is the 2nd fastest warming month after November. 7 of the 12 warmest Octobers have occurred since 1995.
The 30 year average for October reached 10C for the first time back in 1949, and has remained above 10C since 1958. If we get a CET of 11.7C or higher this year, the 30 year average will reach 11.0C for the very first time.

[BornFromTheVoid]

I'm gonna go with 11.1C for now, thanks.

[The PIT]

Going for 11C

[Ravelin]

OK, going to go for 11.4C and hope that for once I'm over the actual CET. No doubt though, like Sept is working out, despite going for an above average CET I'll end up with a guess that's miles too cold, again.

[virtualsphere]

A cooler 9.4C for me please.

[Typhoon John]

10.7C please.

[easy-oasy]

10.5 for me please

[syed2878]

for October im going for 11.5c thanks.

[Roger J Smith]

10.9 (edit to 12.8)

Edited September 30, 2016 by Roger J Smith

[NorthYorksWeather]

10.6c

[Lettucing Gutted]

15.5C.    Last sub 6C October in 1740.  Last sub 7C October in 1896.  Last sub 8C October in 1992.  Last sub 9C October in 1993.

I just noticed something, it was me that started this thread last October, and that's when the hideous mild train returned despite the coldest September since 1993.  I guess I jinxed it last winter, eh?

Edited September 28, 2016 by Lettucing Gutted

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

10.4c for me please. Expecting the second half of October to balance out the warm start to October.

[Man With Beard]

Having somehow got to the submit of the the CET charts, I'm really worried I'm going to blow it this month. I see a knife-edge at the moment - with that high in eastern europe, we risk an easterly draw which will cool quickly.

Let's go for 11.2C for now.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

12.5C.

 

Every month I call an above average number, and each month I am getting stung by near record high CET values. 

 

[Godber 1]

10.5c for me please

[damianslaw]

I'll guess 11.8 degrees, another comfortably above average month, but not especially so. Looks like starting on a mild note from the 3rd onwards, with very mild maxima in southern parts - dependent on if the sun comes out, some cooler nights though. May see a more near average spell mid month with some chilly nights, and then the usual atlantic onslaught to end the month with mild SW airstream (late October is renowned for atlantic weather), but perhaps a marked change at the very tail end with a northerly influence (my hunch is November is going to be very different..).

[Don]

Missed the CET competition in September which I think was the first month missed since joining Netweather, 10 years ago!  For October, I feel the general above average temperatures will continue and I will go for 11.5C please,

[Timmytour]

31 minutes ago, Don said:

Missed the CET competition in September which I think was the first month missed since joining Netweather, 10 years ago!  For October, I feel the general above average temperatures will continue and I will go for 11.5C please,

I missed September as well....particularly galling after speculating back on January 2nd in the thread about the coming year that September would be the year's memorable month and may finish above 16C!!

I'm going 9.9C for October with a cold last third bringing it down

[sundog]

10.7c for me please.

[reef]

Continuing on with the warm theme:

12.3C