October 2016 C.E.T. forecasts

[Evening thunder]

Not sure which way it will go but 11.2C please.. and I'm actually on time for once 

[crucible72]

I'll go for 11.2 as well

[Mark Bayley]

11.1c please

[Roger J Smith]

Table of entries posted here (updated to 3 Oct)

so far 71 on-time entries, median was 11.2 which is also the most popular choice.

(edit Oct 3 -- eight additional late entries, median is now 11.1) __ total of 79 entries now.

With Lettucing Gutted at his usual spot (15.5) the rest of the field is scattered from 13.2 down to 7.9, the untaken numbers at this final stage of late entries ( 3 Oct is deadline ) are

12.9 to 13.1, 12.7, 9.7, 9.5, 9.1 down to 8.0. 

Any further late entries will be edited into the table. 

Edited October 3, 2016 by Roger J Smith

[Daniel*]

Why not? 9.2C please I definitely see there room, for quite a substantial cooling.

[March]

11.8C

[jonboy]

sorry a late 9.9c

[Stargazer]

Oops late...11.1 please

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

A great start to October with below average temperatures! This month could bring some interest with the way the synoptics are showing on the models!

Edited October 2, 2016 by prolongedSnowLover

[Summer Sun]

10.0c to the 1st

2.1 below the 61 to 90 average

*81 to 10 averages not available at the time of posting*

Edited October 2, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Matthew.]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

10.0c to the 1st

2.1 below the 61 to 10 average

*81 to 10 averages not available at the time of posting*

That's quite a contrast to September

Edited October 2, 2016 by Matthew Wilson

[Duncan McAlister]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

10.0c to the 1st

2.1 below the 61 to 10 average

*81 to 10 averages not available at the time of posting*

Can we move to November now? 

Seriously though, looking colder than perhaps was expected for the first week, slightly above average by day but more than offset by colder nights (at least according to GFS). Probably 10.5-11 for the first week?

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Whats the penalty for late sumbission?

I'll go for 10.9c please

[Roger J Smith]

1981-2010 CET averages, cumulative and 1772-present record values

________________________________________________________________

 

Date __ CET __ cum ____ MAX ________ MIN

01 ___ 12.9 ___ 12.9 ___ 20.2 (1985) ___ 6.1 (1808&1888)
02 ___ 12.3 ___ 12.6 ___ 17.9 (2011) ___ 3.6 (1817)
03 ___ 12.1 ___ 12.4 ___ 19.8 (2011) ___ 4.7 (1817)
04 ___ 11.9 ___ 12.3 ___ 17.7 (1959) ___ 5.1 (1912)
05 ___ 11.6 ___ 12.2 ___ 17.9 (1886) ___ 4.6 (1888)

06 ___ 11.9 ___ 12.1 ___19.0 (1921) ___ 4.1 (1888)
07 ___ 11.7 ___ 12.1 ___16.9 (1921) ___ 3.5 (1829)
08 ___ 11.8 ___ 12.0 ___17.7 (1995) ___ 4.1 (1829)
09 ___ 11.9 ___ 12.0 ___17.5 (1995) ___ 3.3 (1852)
10 ___ 12.5 ___ 12.0 ___17.8 (1921) ___ 3.5 (1814)

11 ___ 11.7 ___ 12.0 ___ 17.6 (1978) ___ 3.9 (1860)
12 ___ 11.6 ___ 12.0 ___ 16.5 (1978) ___ 3.2 (1887)
13 ___ 11.4 ___ 11.9 ___ 16.8 (1990) ___ 2.2 (1838)
14 ___ 10.9 ___ 11.8 ___ 16.1 (1990) ___ 3.1 (1838)
15 ___ 10.8 ___ 11.8 ___ 15.7 (1930) ___ 2.5 (1843)

16 ___ 10.3 ___ 11.7 ___ 15.8 (1818) ___ 1.8 (1843)
17 ___ 10.0 ___ 11.6 ___ 15.6 (1897) ___ 2.5 (1824)
18 ___ 10.1 ___ 11.5 ___ 16.7 (2014) ___ 2.4 (1843)
19 ___ 10.0 ___ 11.4 ___ 16.3 (1921) ___ 1.5 (1813)
20 ____ 9.8 ___ 11.3 ___ 14.9 (1795) ___ 2.1 (1842)

21 ____ 9.6 ___ 11.3 ___ 15.2 (1998) ___ 1.2 (1842)
22 ____ 9.9 ___ 11.2 ___ 16.2 (1906) ___ 2.5 (1931)
23 ____ 9.6 ___ 11.1 ___ 14.4 (1998) ___ 0.9 (1859)
24 ____ 9.4 ___ 11.1 ___ 14.3 (2009) ___ 0.6 (1859)
25 ____ 9.4 ___ 11.0 __ 14.0 (1978, 2013) _ 2.0 (1784)

26 ____ 9.6 ___ 10.9 ___ 14.7 (1927) ___ 1.5 (1785)
27 ____ 9.8 ___ 10.9 ___ 16.7 (1888) ___ 1.4 (1869)
28 ____ 9.8 ___ 10.9 ___ 15.6 (1888) ___ 0.9 (1895)
29 ____ 8.9 ___ 10.8 __ 14.0 (1772,1984) _ 0.3 (1895)
30 ____ 9.2 ___ 10.7 ___ 15.5 (2005) ___ 0.7 (1836)

31 ____ 9.3 ___ 10.7 ___ 16.9 (2014) ___ 0.7 (1836)

[davehsug]

D'oh I forgot! A late 12.2C please.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Min today of 6.0C, while maxima look like reaching the mid 15s, so an increase to about 10.4C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

10.6C to the 3rd (11.2: -0.9)
11.3C to the 4th (13.4: +1.5)
11.6C to the 5th (12.6: +1.0)
11.4C to the 6th (10.4: -1.5)
11.2C to the 7th (9.8: -1.9)
11.0C to the 8th (9.9: -1.9)
10.9C to the 9th (10.5: -1.4)
10.9C to the 10th (10.8: -1.4)
11.2C to the 11th (13.9: +2.2)

A below average start expected according to the GFS, with the chance of the first sub 10C days since May 25th (9.3C).

[damianslaw]

The warm start being forecast a few days ago, now looks like a very near average start, indeed possibly trending a little below. October is a rapidly cooling month, it can see very different starts and ends. 

[NorthYorksWeather]

9.8c here after the first 2 days of October. Bang on the 81-10 average.

[Summer Sun]

10.5c to the 2nd

1.6 below the 61 to 90 average

2.1 below the 81 to 10 average

[Man With Beard]

22 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Min today of 6.0C, while maxima look like reaching the mid 15s, so an increase to about 10.4C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

10.6C to the 3rd (11.2: -0.9)
11.3C to the 4th (13.4: +1.5)
11.6C to the 5th (12.6: +1.0)
11.4C to the 6th (10.4: -1.5)
11.2C to the 7th (9.8: -1.9)
11.0C to the 8th (9.9: -1.9)
10.9C to the 9th (10.5: -1.4)
10.9C to the 10th (10.8: -1.4)
11.2C to the 11th (13.9: +2.2)

A below average start expected according to the GFS, with the chance of the first sub 10C days since May 25th (9.3C).

That easterly component that I was fretting over is showing its hand. It's very early days but I'm now thinking the CET will come in closer to 10C than 11C. Or colder still if that Scandi High persists!

[doctor32]

late i know, but going for 10.2 please

[seaside 60]

3 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

That easterly component that I was fretting over is showing its hand. It's very early days but I'm now thinking the CET will come in closer to 10C than 11C. Or colder still if that Scandi High persists!

Your worried, I am half a degree higher...

It does look much colder now doesnt it, bet a lot of people would revise to lower guesses now.

However wait until the high does it normal trick and sink south to give us S/SW winds and the CET will soon bounce back up.

[DAVID SNOW]

3 hours ago, seaside 60 said:

Your worried, I am half a degree higher...

It does look much colder now doesnt it, bet a lot of people would revise to lower guesses now.

However wait until the high does it normal trick and sink south to give us S/SW winds and the CET will soon bounce back up.

And right on cue, the ECM starts to look like the METO further outlook......

[Summer Sun]

10.6c to the 3rd

1.6 below the 61 to 90 average

1.8 below the 81 to 10 average

[Dami]

Omg I forgot am I too late?

10.9 for me please.