Hurricane Newton

[Nick F]

Newton has deepened into a Category 1 hurricane overnight, currently has max sustained winds of 90 mph with a central pressure of 979mb, closing in on the southern end of the Baja California, could strengthen into a Cat. 2 briefly before it crosses Baja Cal. then continues across the Gulf to mainland NW Mexico. 

SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 109.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...200 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSE OF LA PAZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 21.3N 109.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 23.3N 110.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 26.1N 111.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 36H  07/1200Z 29.2N 111.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 48H  08/0000Z 32.1N 110.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Public Advisory: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP5+shtml/060559.shtml?

Forecast Advisory: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMEP5+shtml/060254.shtml?

Discussion: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP5+shtml/060255.shtml?

Flash-flooding and mudslides the main issue, particularly in the mountainous areas, as 5-10 inches expected to fall along coasts, locally as high as 15 inches. Wind damage likely over southern Baja Cal. and coastal areas of mainland NW Mexico for a time too before Newton weakens. Could bring a flash-flooding risk to parts of Arizona and western New Mexico later in the week, as the remnants arrive here, so some relief for the moderate drought affecting much of the desert SW of the U.S.

I did a blog yesterday about the 2016 hurricane season ramping up now, coming on the back of 7 years of a hurricane drought for the N Atlantic, though currently the wave over the eastern Caribbean has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation, while the wave over the eastern N Pacific has 50% chance of TC formation over next 5 days, though far away from land.

Edited September 6, 2016 by Nick F