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Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 02/09/16 onwards


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My piece de resistance: (drumroll please...)  

I've just been going through my phones photos from yesterday. Apart from the two oversized bras on next door's washing, this popped up: Finally got one!!

From what I understand, the current isolated storm cells have developed on a convergence wave tied into the circulation of the depression in Biscay. This "wave" will rotate and traverse slo

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1 minute ago, UxbridgeLondon said:

Yes that's correct, the Amber region really got hit hard earlier by most reports, leaving the ground and drainage systems extremely saturated. It's by no means an indication that this area will be hit any harder than the surrounding areas. 

Essex etc in warning area

did Essex have any substantial rain earlier ?

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I'm going to try to get some shut eye. Could be a night of little sleep if goes to plan so will try and get some in now.

Good luck all, stay safe and I hope none of us have to suffer any flooding!

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Storm & Convective Forecast

convmap_160916.png

Issued 2016-09-15 21:21:06

Valid: 16/09/2016 00z to 17/09/2016 00z

CONVECTIVE / STORM FORECAST - FRI 16TH-SEPT-2016

Synopsis

Slack upper and surface flow pattern across the UK on Thursday, between upper trough to the west and upper low over France will be replaced by a more progressive / strengthening W/NWly flow at all levels on Friday, behind upper trough and attendant surface cold front moving in from the west. So unusually warm and humid plume that’s been across much of England and Wales since the beginning of the week will be kicked out and replaced by cooler and fresher conditions from the west. During this transition, thunderstorms are likely to become increasingly widespread across S and E England during Thursday night and Friday morning, before clearing east later on Friday.

… S and E ENGLAND, MIDLANDS …

Convergence north of W-E frontal boundary pushing up across the English Channel and a subtle shortwave moving NE appears to be the forcing mechanism for back-building lines of storms across Dorset, Hampshire and Sussex this evening. These storms are forecast by models to expand in coverage across central S and SE England (including London) and perhaps S/E Midlands overnight, as forcing and cooling increases aloft from the west.

These storms will continue the tendency to back-build over some spots – leading to an enhanced risk of flash-flooding from rainfall rates as high as 30-40mm per/hr. Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning will pose an additional hazard. Also these storms will be capable of producing hail and gusty winds.

There is a SLIGHT risk for central S and SE England during the first half of Friday morning for of flash-flooding.

Eventually these storms and heavy showers will merge into a broad band of heavy thundery rain, with isolated embedded storms, that will spread east across much of S and E England … as the cold front moves in from the west. Lightning may become less prolific and more isolated during the morning as CAPE is reduced by cool outflow/cold pooling from overnight storms and also cooler and drier air undercutting from the west. But there will continue to be an isolated risk of flash-flooding from stronger convective cells, as well as a risk of gusty winds. Band of thundery rain with embedded storms eventually clearing east coast Friday evening.

There is a MARGINAL risk over S and E England for the continued risk of flash-flooding, though there is a SLIGHT risk over the far SE of England –where a higher risk for stronger storms with flash-flooding will exist into the afternoon.

Issued by: Nick Finnis

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

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7 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

That Met Office Amber warning sounds pretty ominous. Mass disruption to transport?

Thats just a normal day here in the London area!

Showers seem to be popping up further back toward the east now. Hoping for something here in the next hour. 

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I just checked my cam out, and a big juicy spidey just slid down his silky rope, right in front of the lens! I went out to clean it off, and I thought I heard a very deep rumble? It sounded far away, but surely not from that train of showers East of Winchester?

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17 minutes ago, Wet'n'Dry said:

Don't forget your MW radios peeps, there's a lot of strikes not shown on lightning detectors online, your average MW radio will detect local strikes up to 20 miles away.

Just tune to a weak station and listen!! After a while you can also tell the difference between CG and IC strikes, CG's sound like a sudden crack and IC's crackle!!!

 

Remember doing this as a kid living in Essex, when storm's came up from France overnight.

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