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Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 02/09/16 onwards


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I like these types of setups, whether anything materialises or not, because there's usually a lot to learn.

Just look at that TT index.. probably why Estofex have Issued a level 2.

viewimage.png

We'll just have to wait and see!

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My piece de resistance: (drumroll please...)  

I've just been going through my phones photos from yesterday. Apart from the two oversized bras on next door's washing, this popped up: Finally got one!!

From what I understand, the current isolated storm cells have developed on a convergence wave tied into the circulation of the depression in Biscay. This "wave" will rotate and traverse slo

Posted Images

really thought it would make sense we would get something here for once considering the Synoptics.

i take it we have another stupidly strong cap over us tomorrow?

fortunately I've got a relatively decent day tomorrow workwise but I don't want to have to drive for miles this time to see something. Just once can it possibly be in the south east where all the heat is???

 

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc
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Can't wait until Wednesday when all the papers and online news portals gush about how much lightning the "entire country" saw the day before, ignoring the total lack of anything electrical - and/or indeed rain - in the London area.

if this potential event turns out to be a bust we're facing possibly the worst year for storms in my recent memory.

anyway, good luck to everyone else and please please can people get some good videos!

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc
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4 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

I love looking at the models, but have been shot down too many times to make predictions.The parameters look promising in my area for tomorrow, but I've a feeling Wednesday will be special

I've been trying to track down details about Wednesday. Estofex are suggesting the risk moving eastwards but only mention southern France.

would have expected Dan at CW to have posted an early suggestion of what may happen midweek but so far nothing.

i'm expecting that with temps hovering around the 30 mark there should at least be a good chance of imports weds/thurs but what do I know...

fingers crossed - I only want one storm and then I'll be happy for the next 10 months :-D

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Ok, so another storm risk day and another day of uncertainties. There is a large suite of models to look at but I am going to concentrate on the hi-res models I have access too.


NMM shows some storms moving into the south coast just to the west of the IOW by lunchtime and spreading northwards across the West Country and West Midlands. This is very isolated in nature. Later on this fizzles out over the Peak District before more widespread storms develop over the NW of England and push north through Cumbria, the far north of England and Scotland. At the same time storms move in across Wales, by now it is during the overnight period.


Euro4 shows storms moving into the SW, West Country and up through Wales and the far west of the Midlands this afternoon. It then is in agreement with the NMM for NW England, the borders and Scotland to get storms this evening and then Wales and NW England overnight. Euro4 also indicates more thunderstorms moving into the far SW through the early hours of tomorrow.


Arpege has the precipitation further west, affecting Wales and the western extremeties of England. The Icon forecast is very similar to the NMM with storms early afternoon spreading north then more widespread activity this evening across Wales, Western and Northern England. It makes less of the activity overnight though. Hirlam is very similar to the Euro4.


Taking all this into account I would say west is best, although not too far west. It is the areas just to the east of the straddling front that fair best. If you are under the front it is likely to be cloudy, dull and wet all day and this will not help storms to develop. With the high CAPE values predicted and deep layer shear (this moreso in the west) there would certainly be a risk of severe weather in these storms if they become surface based. Even if they remain elevated they pose the risk of frequent lightning and gusty winds but a surface based storm could produce 2-3cm hail too. 

CAPE.png 

Some charts from www.lightningwizard.com/maps

The helicity chart is particularly striking in my view. A chance of supercells in the west then!

ELT.png  helicity.png   Thompson.png

Then of course we have the forecasts from Estofex and Convective Weather

Estofex 12-9-16.png  largethumb.png

With the slight risk of a storm moving north through the Midlands early afternoon (NMM) my plan is to stay put for now and await to see if that materialises near the south coast. If it does then I will target this as its isolated nature and the fact it is moving into some great convective air could mean it becomes quite a storm. Failing that, by mid afternoon I will head towards the NW in the hope of spending the evening and first part of the night there. Best get some sleep this morning then!!

 

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44 minutes ago, Supacell said:

 

 I have a feeling that here might be a good place to be tonight. Maybe the M53 will be a good place to hang around if you come over here so you can get north or south. You're welcome to visit  merseyside :-) We are very friendly. 

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I wonder if the active cell in the western channel could become the seed for a supercell as it moves north across the West Country (probs too early in the day in terms of surface heating for southern parts of the SW, though you never know!)

If so, that really would be reminiscent of the final Saturdsy of August.

Adding to the uncertainty, I've noticed that the models are still at odds when it comes to how exactly the slack low behaves over the next 24 hours or so. GFS has a lobe of lower pressure extending N into England tomorrow which brings slightly fresher and less unstable air into S England, but ECM and ARPEGE don't go with this feature, allowing the very warm air to keep feeding across from the east, leading to a greater chance of isolated convection cropping up.

Of course the flip side with GFS is that the very warm air is transported a bit further north, improving the picture for some of those at the other end of the U.K.

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 I have a feeling that here might be a good place to be tonight. Maybe the M53 will be a good place to hang around if you come over here so you can get north or south. You're welcome to visit  merseyside :-) We are very friendly. 

Yes I know, my grandparents were born and raised in Liverpool. :D

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18 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Manchester Airport 

TAF: EGCC 130554Z 1306/1412 VRB03KT CAVOK BECMG 1310/1313 30012KT PROB40 TEMPO 1313/1321 VRB15G25KT 4000 +SHRA TSGR BKN045CB BECMG 1315/1318 07012KT BECMG 1318/1321 01008KT PROB30 1400/1406 5000 BR BECMG 1408/1411 07011KT

 

Liverpool is identical. 

 Well that's positive, nice to have them on board. :-) 

Edited by Chris.R
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I know storms are kicking off right now but anyone know anything about risk for tomorrow?

i hear rumours of things happening over the eastern side of the country, which probably means north of Peterborough knowing our luck, but if anyone has any info I'd be very grateful. Convective weather haven't put out an advanced forecast which isn't making me feel too optimistic but with all this heat and plume air I really would be surprised if today's activity in the west is the big finale...

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Bristol Lulsgate TAF temporary forcecast mentions Thunderstorms

Forecast period:0900 to 1900 UTC 13 September 2016

Forecast type:TEMPORARY: The following changes expected for less than half the time period

Winds:variable direction winds at 17 MPH (15 knots; 7.8 m/s)
gusting to 29 MPH (25 knots; 13.0 m/s)

Visibility:1.86 miles (2.99 km)

Ceiling:4500 feet AGL

Clouds:broken clouds at 4500 feet AGL

Weather:+TSRA +TSGR  (heavy rain associated with thunderstorm(s) could not decipher "+TSGR")

Text:TEMPO 1309/1319 VRB15G25KT 3000 +TSRAGR BKN045CB

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