Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 02/09/16 onwards

[Frosty hollows]

That Reading cell which was heading my way has taken a left turn and gone off in a more southerly direction. Seems to have gained some more energy too. Now hering distant booms and rumbles from it

 

[Harsh Climate]

To be honest this storm is nothing special, 30 strikes/min I bet it dies when it hits that cloud and mess coming in from the west, just like that storm 20 miles NW of bournemouth did.  Still though I expect a few good storms to pop up or be imported as the evening/night wears on.

Edited September 15, 2016 by Harsh Climate

[Alicol]

Current view from my area, and getting darker

 

Edited September 15, 2016 by Alicol

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, Azazel said:

I couldn't go I was too excited! Haha

 

booming thunder in the distance now. Sounds like mortar fire!

But - isn't that why it's called the 'thunderbox'? BTW, I always have the same problem whenever it's snowing!

Edited September 15, 2016 by Ed Stone

[dave reid]

Cheers for the info guys. I've got all night so I'm good for whatever. 

[Frosty hollows]

16 minutes ago, Paul Roberts said:

Very ominous skies to the north from here. Have set the camera up (on a tripod on the windowsill, with one of the legs in the sink) to try and photograph some lightning but currently a bit too light outside. Have seen lots of scud from the base of the storm and it looks like it could be a real show. Haven't seen any lightning yet. 

edit: getting closer, 20 plus cc's in the last 3 mins.

 

She's coming at you!

[Paul R]

The storm has just skimmed us to the north and the main area of lightning is to the north west. Didn't get any lightning photographed as it was all out of my field of view which is a shame. Still seeing lots of mainly orange and yellow lightning and hearing deep rumbles.

Edited September 15, 2016 by Paul Roberts

[Harsh Climate]

Think I spoke to soon, If I lived more than an hours drive away I wouldn't bother chasing it now.

[MP-R]

That Reading storm really is looking like a May 2006 jobby. If the parameters are as forecast, it should explode if it gets this far.

[Chris.R]

2 minutes ago, dave reid said:

Cheers for the info guys. I've got all night so I'm good for whatever. 

Lol this post could be interpreted differently if it was relating to the other conversation in here atm. 

[NorthernJord]

Its gone from 60+ a minute to 6. Seems like it has almost hit some sort of brick wall in the sky! That or Blitztorung is not registering it properly!

[Panayiotis]

Yes peculiar...its lost a lot of its electrical charge but seems more organised than it was while it was over Reading..

[A.J]

8 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

To be honest this storm is nothing special, 30 strikes/min I bet it dies when it hits that cloud and mess coming in from the west, just like that storm 20 miles NW of bournemouth did.  Still though I expect a few good storms to pop up or be imported as the evening/night wears on.

first things first....30 strikes per minute for a UK storm is actually very impressive indeed....don't forget this is not part of a larger cluster of storms, this is a discrete storm.......the Dorset storm died due to its updraft's being swamped due to little wind shear throughout the levels and not to do with "cloud and mess coming in from the west"

2 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Think I spoke to soon, If I lived more than an hours drive away I wouldn't bother chasing it now.

that's your call, I'm off to enjoy it....toodlepip 

[Guest]

14 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

Mid-level convection getting underway here in the Peaks with a nice orangey-hue to the mist as the sun is setting. 

How do you rate our chances later on tonight? I'm thinking plain old thundery rain in the early hours but hoping for something 'flashier'

[Windblade]

Some great tales and pictures in this thread. I have a huge cb to my west thats developing an anvil but sadly its moving away. Skies very milky here and I can just see it through the haze. I'm hoping for some imports or convetion in the early hours as per the forecast. I'm not too hopeful given the pitiful, stormless summer we've had here (I honestly can't remember a summer as bad as this) but lets wait and see what happens. In the meantime its enjoyable reading this thread and seeing other peoples storms.

[Harry]

Skies turning here - nothing convective to note but it is a move away from the virtually crystal clear skies of the past few days. Things are changing - hopefully for the good

[Arnie Pie]

A couple of vid caps from Tuesdays storms around Birmingham.....with luck we will see some overnight storms this evening, which will give us some easier photographic opportunitys

[Windblade]

Some more stuff just leaving france now. Hopefully it'll intensify by the time it gets here. I recon the channel should be warm enough at the moment to give some fuel.

 

[dave reid]

I'm going to head to the M27 services near the split with the M3, and evaluate then, north or south.

Good luck everyone

[AWD]

From what I understand, the current isolated storm cells have developed on a convergence wave tied into the circulation of the depression in Biscay.

This "wave" will rotate and traverse slowly WNW through this evening to stall somewhere like this around midnight approx, against a cold front approaching from the west.

The western extent being a line roughly from Birmingham - Bath - Weymouth.  The cold front approaching from the west later tonight/early hours tomorrow will then push the storms back east again again, at the same time, providing greater destabilization of the atmosphere and greater forcing, thus fuelling many more storms to develop, possibly merging into clusters.

So, to conclude, I would say the next few hours, any action will be focused in the below circled area; 

Then as we approach midnight, and the cold front provides greater forcing, the area in focus would be; 

This would be the area where storms would explode into life and become much more prominent.  Then into day break tomorrow morning, the cold front edges east slowly to focus storms somewhere like this at breakfast time;

And continually moving east to finish the day around here;

A lively 18hrs or so coming up with storms becoming much more widespread into the night across Central, Eastern & South Eastern England.

[MrNooo]

Cotswolds look within a shout then!!! Hope so, can hear the odd rumble from the Reading storm whilst walking the dogs a short time ago.

[Guest]

Hope you're right with that @AWD . Nice analysis!

[A.J]

3 minutes ago, AWD said:

From what I understand, the current isolated storm cells have developed on a convergence wave tied into the circulation of the depression in Biscay.

This "wave" will rotate and traverse slowly WNW through this evening to stall somewhere like this around midnight approx, against a cold front approaching from the west.

The western extent being a line roughly from Birmingham - Bath - Weymouth.  The cold front approaching from the west later tonight/early hours tomorrow will then push the storms back east again again, at the same time, providing greater destabilization of the atmosphere and greater forcing, thus fuelling many more storms to develop, possibly merging into clusters.

So, to conclude, I would say the next few hours, any action will be focused in the below circled area; 

Then as we approach midnight, and the cold front provides greater forcing, the area in focus would be; 

This would be the area where storms would explode into life and become much more prominent.  Then into day break tomorrow morning, the cold front edges east slowly to focus storms somewhere like this at breakfast time;

And continually moving east to finish the day around here;

A lively 18hrs or so coming up with storms becoming much more widespread into the night across Central, Eastern & South Eastern England.

informative post AWD, nice to see your analysis again 

[toggerob]

Shift the convergence west by 25 miles and i'll be a happy camper tonight

[West Sussex Kate]

Near horsham, lots of dark clouds towards the south.