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Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 02/09/16 onwards

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31 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

lol....i totally agree, the steering winds are all over the place throughout the troposphere!....ironically the only direction not expected is south to north......looks like ESE to WNW for a few hours, then then flow changes from NE to SW as approaching fronts/troughs from the west and SE squeeze the air flow......I'm gong to stick to Nick F's & staplehurst (Dan - http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/) .....in fact Dan's just put an updated forecast out

My plan at around noon is to head to the A14 and then see what occurs onwards. Quite a hard, but exciting day will prevail I feel, given everything is all over the place! 

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lol old Grimsley is getting under the skin of people on UKWW now.

 

I feel this may be my last significant chance of the year - GoPro is charged, hoping something kicks off ideally around 8pm as it will be dark then.

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23 minutes ago, Azazel said:

lol old Grimsley is getting under the skin of people on UKWW now.

Good old Altocumulus Castellanus.

I was so chuffed to get absolutely smashed head on by that storm on Tuesday night. Was that a MCS or just a fat multicell? Either way, it's up there with the Yorkshire Supercell. Summer can finish now, I'm satisfied.

archive_9_image.png

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Lol I was wondering where mr grimslius castellaneus had gone! Seen as Devon got into some of the action 2 days ago. 

Fog beginning to break now and slowly getting brighter. Hopefully in this next hour the sun can get to work and raise those temperatures. 

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Good morning Gang ,hope plenty of us see some action later today and overnight .

For those with time on their hands a great 24hr period to watch radar SAT etc ,and of course to actualy go outside and watch Mother nature cook up our Atmosphere ,and the great plus of course this time of year ,plenty more Dark hours , so here is hoping ,cheers .

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Current state of the sky, here:

20160915_110319.jpg

I'm supposed to be at the beach tonight, fishing. I don't really know how that is going to pan out.

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Just starting to brighten up here in my part. I think more we will get attacked from the west

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54 minutes ago, Azazel said:

lol old Grimsley is getting under the skin of people on UKWW now.

 

I feel this may be my last significant chance of the year - GoPro is charged, hoping something kicks off ideally around 8pm as it will be dark then.

Saw that on their convective thread. Mr Grimsley being a bit niggly and winding people up.

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13 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Current state of the sky, here:

20160915_110319.jpg

I'm supposed to be at the beach tonight, fishing. I don't really know how that is going to pan out.

yep, I'm also in doubt where and if things will occur, as we all know storm forecasting is difficult enough, but looking at the dogs dinner that is the latest hi-res modelling, it's really tricky to try and pin things down with all the various parameters as well as complicated and ever changing steering flows that need to all come together

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Interesting chart from Metdesk posted on twitter:

... ties in with the ECMWF rainfall charts: 

ecm0125_nat_msl_t850_6urk_2016091500_024.jpgecm0125_nat_msl_t850_6urk_2016091500_030.jpgecm0125_nat_msl_t850_6urk_2016091500_036.jpg

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 21.3°C with sunny intervals. 

Edited by Chris.R

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14 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

Well,i have just watched the last five clips for the first time and [email protected]@king wow,how much lightning:shok:

pick the bones out of part 3:D

Incredible!

 

12 hours ago, Chris K said:

Any storms should they develop will tease us by about 50 miles to our East/SE. You can bet your bottom dollar on it!

 

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Well, I'm right on the southern edge of that triangle. Fog is just lifting and we have hazy sunshine atm. Feels a lot hotter than the 21C my station reports. If this haze burns off maybe we'll get initiation here, But as a tendency things tend to get really going once they cross the tmahes and reach the chilterns. High Wycombe is probably a good spot. 

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8 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Interesting chart from Metdesk posted on twitter:

I used to have their app with great radar and forecast charts (from the ECM) which I loved... sadly it's only available on iOS! come on Metdesk, please make an Android version (sorry slightly off topic).

I was slightly worried about the Met Office precip charts not breaking much out in the West country, though I think it still looks quite favourable overall, so may have a little chase into Dorset or Somerset later.

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16 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Interesting chart from Metdesk posted on twitter:

... ties in with the ECMWF rainfall charts: 

ecm0125_nat_msl_t850_6urk_2016091500_024.jpgecm0125_nat_msl_t850_6urk_2016091500_030.jpgecm0125_nat_msl_t850_6urk_2016091500_036.jpg

 

That'll be the 00z EURO4 that MetDesk have tweeted there. Whereabouts are those ECMWF charts from Nick?

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6 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

 

That'll be the 00z EURO4 that MetDesk have tweeted there. Whereabouts are those ECMWF charts from Nick?

The EC rainfall charts can be found here from an Iceland Weather Service site:

http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ecm0125/2016/09/15/00/ecm0125_nat_msl_t850_6urk.html

Edited by Nick F
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Several hours of sun and soupy air have allowed temps to reach 26*C as of noon, but a cluster of AC Cas has sprung up - a sign of the potential at hand should low level convergence plus diurnal heating reach sufficient levels to break the cap. The likely intensity of storms is not obvious from model output; with very slow movement of cells expected, totals are inevitably very large where they get going. However, there seems to be sufficient ingredients for some locally quite intense rainfall rates, 30-50 mm per hour perhaps?

Convection is not my speciality so official convective outlooks are the best source of accurate information in this case, but I thought I'd post my thoughts for the heck of it :)

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Dont know if it been mentioned before  but the Met office have updated their warnings less of a northwards movement of the storms  for Thursday at least

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Well the sun has burned a lot of the murk away here now and it's feeling very humid and wet (air) outside.  Not the type of weather I enjoy to be fair - hot and dry not hot and humid is best for me.

 

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Gorgeous day here with sunny, hazy skies and 27C currently, no sign of any convection yet...

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Temp has been steady at 22C for a while now. And there's a lovely cool breeze. In fact,it couldn't feel less threatening! But the skies above look like this

WP_20160915_004.jpg

WP_20160915_002.jpg

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Very humid along the southcoast Christchurch/Bournemouth  area and Dark clouds keep trying to form!  

20160915_130439.jpg

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So hot and humid here sweating loads! Got a good feeling could see a storm here  later in Bournemouth 

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