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Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 02/09/16 onwards

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13 hours ago, CreweCold said:

:shok:

You swore

Oops! I thought the swear filter would bleep that one out!:oops:

 

What a disappointing year this has been for convective activity in the SE.

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11 minutes ago, Lauren said:

Oops! I thought the swear filter would bleep that one out!:oops:

 

What a disappointing year this has been for convective activity in the SE.

Haha, I'm sure they'll let you off :D

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Some forecasts going for a chance of storms today. I'm being pessimistic after yesterday haha!

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Looking at the SAT24 imagery, there's something quite interesting forming in the bay of Biscay. Is there tropical air mixed into that circulation?

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Courtesy of http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/:

2016-09-14 (4).png

Quote

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 14 Sep 2016 - 05:59 UTC Thu 15 Sep 2016

ISSUED 08:20 UTC Wed 14 Sep 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

UPDATE 08:20 UTC SLGT shifted a little farther SE and LOW extended into extreme south coast, based on latest guidance. Parts of N/NW England, N + W Midlands and Wales need monitoring for the potential introduction of a SLGT - there could be isolated but explosive thunderstorm development if the cap ~850mb can be eroded late afternoon into the evening

 

Disrupting upper trough eventually becoming a cut-off upper low over Biscay, causing the flow across the British Isles to become increasingly backed and limiting any further advection of high low-level ThetaW airmass. As the trough continues to disrupt the main upper forcing will tend to slide south across Biscay/France, and consequently any remaining elevated convection at this start of this forecast period, particularly along the eastern periphery of the frontal boundary straddling E + S Scotland to E Ireland, should weaken and dissipate with time through the morning. One main exception will be close to Cornwall / S Devon where some lightning originating from elevated convection will be possible first thing, and this risk may continue for a while longer migrating into S Ireland.

Also worth noting that the GFS (and now with a little more support from some other models) has consistently signalled elements of mid-level convection over parts of SE England late Tuesday night into the first part of Wednesday morning. Whilst AcCas with virga etc will be possible from medium/high cloud, confidence is not high enough to introduce lightning threat levels here for now.

 

Aside from these risks, much of the day will be dominated by capping preventing any surface-based convection, and with little upper forcing to destabilise the mid-levels either. That said, models should not be taken literally and given an ingredients-based approach one would need to consider that an isolated thunderstorm could develop just about anywhere - perhaps moreso over Wales / W Mids / NW England with hints of low-level wind convergence and some aspects of orographic forcing. IF a storm can develop then it will likely be a prolific lightning producer with perhaps hail up to 2.0cm in diameter, given notably steep mid-level lapse rates and CAPE 1,400-2,000 Jkg-1, but the overall risk in any one location remains quite low. Hence main threats would be large hail and localised flash flooding.

There does seem to be a better consensus for more scattered thunderstorm development to occur over the Irish Sea on Wednesday evening, this then ultimately advecting northwestwards into eastern Northern Ireland and perhaps SW Scotland. Some uncertainty surrounds this potential, but have issued a low-end SLGT, if nothing else to make this area stand out more. Some medium-level convection may also be possible over the English Channel later in the night towards Thursday morning, but staying largely over France.

The ol' dreaded 'capping' in there, as I eluded to yesterday. Still, you never know!
 

@Convective would be in a nice place if it does work out.

Another risk on Thursday.

Edited by Mapantz

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4 hours ago, Frosty hollows said:

Have footage from an amazing storm in Barca last night..if I can work out how to upload it, I'll post it. Surely that's not it still going on the French/Spanish border?

Bit annoying that I missed this storm by 2 days, oh well I got my storm at home

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A bit of a shambles regarding the MetO and no warnings yesterday. In today's echo, it shows parts of Bournemouth getting flooded, multiple strikes causing damage across the region. During the 1pm news, Alex Deakin said they will be keeping a close on on developments in the far Southwest, yet no warning was issued, and parts of Cornwall were affected by flooding and such.

Anyway, funny line in today's echo..

Quote

Asda at Castlepoint was evacuated due to fire alarms going off but the store has now been reopened. The rest of Castlepoint was unaffected.

Peter Matthews, Castlepoint manager, said: "We were told to expect the hottest day of the year, so we're all sat here in bikinis and we suddenly get thunder and lightning."

Your private life is your own, Peter. lol

Edited by Mapantz

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 I thought I did see a warning out yesterday?

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3 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 I thought I did see a warning out yesterday?

For Northern parts of the country, yes.

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3 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 I thought I did see a warning out yesterday?

There was for the storms in the north and northwest. I think this is referring to the storms in the south and south west.

I am at work today until 5. If there is to be any explosive storms I hope they can hold off until the evening. I wouldn't mind an evening lightning display after dark.

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1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

For Northern parts of the country, yes.

Oh right I thought I remembered it covering parts of the Southwest  but I think I am probably getting confused with what actually happened. 

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The warnings did include the south west and south wales but there were developments a little further east. Only a few 10's of miles made a HUGE difference yesterday so there is no way warnings can be issued with that degree of accuracy.

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And talking of warnings, one has just been issued for this afternoon. It seems they are  thinking that the cap Will break. 

 Currently 25.0°C here by the way. 

Edited by Chris.R

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There's a small shower but looks pretty potent in the north of scotland

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13 minutes ago, chapmanslade said:

The warnings did include the south west and south wales but there were developments a little further east. Only a few 10's of miles made a HUGE difference yesterday so there is no way warnings can be issued with that degree of accuracy.

There were no warnings issued for the Southwest. So I don't know what you were looking at?

I'm not a MetO basher, but it was a complete cock-up, nothing to do with 'a degree of accuracy' - The forecasts the day before, and that morning were for sunshine, no mention of storms. And the South got pummelled! The news presenters even pointed that out to the weather presenter on the local BBC news, she rather poorly skipped around it and changed the subject somewhat.

I don't have the exact area the warning was placed at, but it was very much like this:

2016-09-14 (6).png

Edited by Mapantz

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5 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

And talking of warnings, one has just been issued for this afternoon. It seems they are  thinking that the cap Will break. 

 Currently 25.0°C here by the way. 

I'm surprised it's for so far south. I was expecting that to be tomorrow's!

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This is confusing, haven't seen any other suggestion of storms in the south this afternoon.. is this meant to be issued for tomorrow instead?
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1473807600&regionName=sw

Looks much more like what's expected tomorrow.

*Edit: it's gone again so maybe they're changing it!

As for yesterday's forecasts the one I saw that correctly mentioned the thunderstorms here was from Carol Kirckwood on Breakfast

 

Edited by Evening thunder

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1 minute ago, Darren Bown said:

I'm surprised it's for so far south. I was expecting that to be tomorrow's!

 Everything will move north-west anyway. 

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2 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

This is confusing, haven't seen any other suggestion of storms in the south this afternoon.. is this meant to be issued for tomorrow instead?
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1473807600&regionName=sw

Looks much more like what's expected tomorrow.

*Edit: it's gone again so maybe they're changing it!

As for yesterday's forecasts the one I saw that correctly mentioned the thunderstorms here was from Carol Kirckwood on Breakfast

 

No warnings showing for me, so it must be being changed as we type. lol

Edit: Read your last line as I was typing.

Edited by Mapantz

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Just had a text alert from the MET warning of heavy rain and storms here - now it's been cancelled and removed?

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Yes it's gone, but it hasn't been cancelled  as I would've had that specific notification. Perhaps it's just being updated. 

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 Oh there we go, cancelled notification. Shame. 

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Just had a cancellation notification lol.

And now it's been reissued for tomorrow for the south.

Edited by Darren Bown

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