Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Supacell

Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 02/09/16 onwards

Recommended Posts

Shower heading for me now Looks like its dieing, very misty outside now

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Aye. GFS showing some slight convergence of surface winds and, given orographic forcing from the peaks, I can see where the GFS is coming from but I doubt it'll be enough

ukwind.png

I don't think the models or forecasts have picked up well thunderstorm/preciptation prospects until almost on top of it this week. Did any of the forecasts yesterday suggest thunderstorms this far east and of such intensity?  It was suppose to be a sunny very warm dry day today here according to Countryfile and even yesterday forecast didn't suggest the storms of today.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I have everything crossed for you... Your storms will come!

Thank you so much - I'm sure they will but I ache for a replay of July 4 2001, but onwards and upwards!

Edited by Alicol
Stupid spelling

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, Costa Del Fal said:

Steering winds look to move round to the SE this evening and overnight so storms should steer towards SW England. Wouldn't be surprised if it just rain by the time it reaches the channel though!

Yep. Judging by history, storms further west tend to have a more cyclonic bias as to those further east, which tend to head more NE as opposed to NW like that lot over France is doing. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I don't think the models or forecasts have picked up well thunderstorm/preciptation prospects until almost on top of it this week. Did any of the forecasts yesterday suggest thunderstorms this far east and of such intensity?  It was suppose to be a sunny very warm dry day today here according to Countryfile and even yesterday forecast didn't suggest the storms of today.

Bloomin right they didn't forecast them yesterday. Saw forecast on telly this morning,thought Kirkwood had gone mad!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Lauren said:

Y'all got flooding up North and here I am sweating my tits off with a fan blowing.

Omg tell me about it...our bedroom is an absolute furnace, fan on full pelt and it's still ridiculous!!! How I'd appreciate a deluge now with or without thunder! :help:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, Ja'Crispy said:

Short video of the storm approaching our location. A few others have gathered who you can just about hear chatting over the amazing outflow winds! :D At the end it's time to get to the car!

Some other short videos showing the during and after. All unedited so there might be occasional spells of unfocusing, etc.

OMFG...imagine if that'd been at night!!! Awesome vid!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How can the GFS be so wrong at just 3 hours out from initiation??

This was its 9pm forecast from the 18z

ukprec.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, Allezwasps. said:

Storms in France still heading due north at present..... I wonder.

Not quite, i'm afraid.

Current trajectory would put this at scraping Cornwall at the most.

2016-09-13 (15).png 2016-09-13 (16).png

I'd be happy for that not to be the case though, and push further North. :D

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

How can the GFS be so wrong at just 3 hours out from initiation??

This was its 9pm forecast from the 18z

ukprec.png

12Z hi-res is even worse lol

viewimage (1).png:

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

12Z hi-res is even worse lol

viewimage (1).png:

 

 

Pretty poor if you ask me. Even taking a basic projection based on the radar at time of initiation would have yielded better results...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Pretty poor if you ask me. Even taking a basic projection based on the radar at time of initiation would have yielded better results...

and this is a perfect candidate for why it is not realistically possible to give site-specific forecasts of exactly where and when thunderstorms will occur, especially when they originate from the mid-levels - because at the end of the day, forecast apps etc are driven by models and if models can't capture things correctly and/or struggle with plume events, then they will offer little use in these particular setups. Ingredients-based methods works better, whilst trying to spot trends amongst various NWP output.

Problem with GFS is it's a coarse-resolution global model - it's never going to capture every single thunderstorm, because they are much smaller in size than the grid spacing of this model. And sadly the GFS hasn't been particularly useful in many of the plume events over recent weeks. Certainly a blend of ECMWF and EURO4/UKV offers the best guidance - not perfect, but generally a lot better than the GFS. But most free apps are run off the GFS (or WRF / NMM derivatives that use the GFS for their boundary/initialisation conditions).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
47 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

http://www.thestar.co.uk/news/video-tornado-touches-down-in-sheffield-as-thunderstorms-rage-across-city-1-8123399

Reports of a tornado in Sheffield

The video is pretty poor quality so cant really make out if it was a tornado or not, have a look folks 

Not like the media to exaggerate. Some people on Twitter actually concerned from the irresponsible headlines.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, NUT said:

The pitch is fine so the match would be playable but I guess it's the chaos around the city that's stopped it

Trains disrupted, trams out, planes diverted, roads rivers.... Yep....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Got some fantastic short videos of this evenings storms from Barnsley, that my sister took, never seen lightning like it....!

In fact I have, it reminded me of Close Encounters of the Third Kind.. You know, when the big thunderheads form with all the lightning embedded in the heads... Going to try and upload when I have a spare mo later on........

 

 

Edited by Speedway Slider
Forgot to add source..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Absolutely thumping down with rain here at the moment guess last of the storms rolling through

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can anyone on the south coast see that one approaching the Cherbourg peninsula? Still quite active. 

Anyone looking for lightning should check the Barcelona cams now. Seen some cracking bolts on one of them! 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...